Want a Playoff Rental? Pay Up

If the East playoff picture were a NASCAR race, all the cars would be bumping into each other and nobody would really get anywhere.

At the start of play Saturday, two points separated the sixth to 13th place teams in the conference. If you’re an optimist, you can say that Montreal is one point out of sixth place. If you’re a pessimist, you can say that the Canadiens are one point removed from a lottery pick in the draft.

The seventh place Flyers could drop to eleventh if they lose today to the Islanders, while a win could bump New York from 13th to tied for sixth.

The West looks spread out in comparison, but 13th place St. Louis sits five points behind seventh place Nashville.

It’s nearly February, and only Columbus, Edmonton, Carolina and Toronto are “done.” The Leafs won’t even tank for a high draft pick because they traded it to Boston in the off-season.

Usually I wouldn’t bring up tight playoff races in January, but this year is special. With the Olympic break and its accompanying trade freeze from Feb. 15 to Feb. 28, there are only 18 business days left until the trade deadline.

With so few teams in sell mode, teams that want to add a deadline rental will have to pay up, and teams peddling their goods will want to cash in.

Carolina general manager Jim Rutherford said half his roster will be different next year, which means soon-to-be free agents Ray Whitney, Scott Walker, Matt Cullen, Joe Corvo, Aaron Ward and Niclas Wallin will probably be moved.

None of those players scream “deadline blockbuster,” though. Edmonton doesn’t have any big names to pawn, either, unless former playoff hero Fernando Pisani is worth giving up high draft picks for.

The only superstar that may be available at this point is Ilya Kovalchuk of Atlanta. If the incessant rumors have merit, Kovalchuk wants twelve golden bathtubs filled with money (or 10 years, $10 million per year). He will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 if Atlanta can’t sign him, and if the team can’t sign him it might opt to trade him.

Everybody from the Islanders to the Blackhawks has been rumored to want Kovalchuk, but there are several factors holding back a trade.

First, he is the franchise. Atlanta already draws the third-lowest attendance in the league, and without Kovalchuk it’s tough to imagine even the lower bowl being filled. Plus, trading Kovalchuk kills the team's chances of making the playoffs, and trading out of the playoff race will alienate the fans it has.

Second, though his contract demands might say otherwise, he enjoys Atlanta. The Thrashers have padded the team with fellow Russians like linemates Maxim Afinogenov and Nik Antropov to make him as happy as possible.

Any team that wants to pry the sniper out of Georgia for a playoff run will have to pay up. He will cost so much that adding him as merely a rental probably won’t happen: they’d have to be willing to sign him to a long-term deal. Nobody wants to give up one or two NHL players, one or two top-line prospects and a handful of draft picks for just two months of Kovalchuk.

So if you want your team to stockpile talent at the deadline for a run at the Cup, prepare yourself now for a disappointing March 3.

For the complete playoff standings, visit here. My current picks for the last playoff spots: Philadelphia, Boston and the Islanders in the East and Calgary and Detroit in the West. Kovalchuk stays in Atlanta with a record-breaking contract.