The unorthodox virtual Democratic and Republican national conventions have come to an end.

President Donald Trump has pledged a return to normalcy by 2021, a vaccine by the end of this year and a plethora of policy plans that are generally a continuation of the original spirit of the Trump 2016 campaign. Solid Republican voters and Trump loyalists are obviously excited by these policies, although it is to be seen how many battleground independents will buy into the reelection campaign.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats delivered a message that has been evidently resonating with voters in battleground states. The Joe Biden/Kamala Harris pitch is simple — take back the soul of the nation. It has been his pitch from the very beginning, and so far, it is a more successful pitch than Hillary Clinton’s “Stronger Together” campaign. The slogan has its roots in the original Biden announcement, one that highlighted excerpts from Trump’s response to the rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. As of now, Biden is a more popular candidate than Clinton, but that also means he and his party have a lot of potential to lose voters between now and November.

The Republicans seem to have come out on top judging from recent polls. The message of the Republicans was one in defense of an America under siege. The party has convinced its voter base, and is attempting to convince swing voters, that the virus, the protests and the economy are extraneous events that are not a direct result of the Trump presidency.

David Wasserman, a nonpartisan election analyst and a top editor for the Cook Report, has been eyeing the probability of the Rust Belt states once again being a deciding factor of the presidential race, just as they were in 2016. He emphasized the need for the Trump campaign to appeal to non-college white voters in the Rust Belt on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1298648327307890691

Interestingly, the RNC didn’t make a massive appeal to this group. In contrast to 2016, the RNC this time around made a large effort to expand its voter base to include nonwhite voters. An emphasis on the First Step Act, Biden’s connection to mass incarceration and Black unemployment touted by a plethora of diverse speakers was at the forefront of every night. The Trump administration has been relentless in these attacks in an effort to win over a larger share of Black people, which is typically a difficult voter base to swing for Republicans. Similarly, anti-socialist Cuban immigrants and anti-illegal immigration Latin Americans spoke in an appeal specifically to Hispanic people in Florida and Arizona, respectively.

The Biden campaign knows its strengths lie with nonwhite and college-educated white voters. All the Democratic party has to worry about in November is making sure that its constituents turn up in greater numbers than Republicans. Biden already has a sizable poll lead, and his only concern should be keeping it rather than expanding it.

As for the candidates’ speeches, Biden surpassed the very low bar set for him. Months of claiming that he was “senile” and “a puppet” by right wing media and the president have made voters look at Joe Biden through a specific lens. He was overshadowed by former president Barack Obama as well as Joe’s wife, Jill, who gave a compelling speech comparing the nation to a close family. Despite this, Biden did give a solid speech and made his 25-minute case to the nation.

The incumbent president spoke for an hour listing his accomplishments, as well as the shortcomings of Biden’s career and platform. The speech had its typical Trumpian moments — typecasting protestors as anarchists, touting hyperbolous policy proposals and pointing toward the White House, saying, “We’re here, and they’re not.” All in all, it was a standard campaign speech for the president, although the opera singing and firework spectacular finale was something to behold:

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1299191339469492224

Once all was said and done, it seemed that the president received a small poll bump in response to his party’s convention. The Morning Consult reported that after the RNC, Trump’s share of the vote jumped slightly from 42% to 44%, taking away 2% from Biden’s previous 52%. If the president wants to win his reelection, he still has a long way to go, judging from this poll. But the president’s path to victory in 2020 was always going to be about edging out the electoral college in spite of a massive popular vote loss.

A more recent and comprehensive Yahoo News-YouGov Poll analyzed voters’ opinions on current events, as well as their response to the conventions. YouGov reported that Trump had gained from the convention only minimally, just as the Morning Consult showed. The poll reported the pre-convention numbers to be about 49% to 40% in favor of Biden, and now reports 47% to 41%, still in Biden’s favor, but Trump has slightly closed the distance. Yahoo said the shift — “about two and a half percent overall — is the result of roughly 1% of registered voters switching from Biden to Trump and a smaller number who previously said they would not vote now saying they will vote for Trump.”

Voters have seen Biden and Trump in the spotlight for years at this point, and realistically, there is very little about their policy that will totally shift the minds of voters. The GOP’s winning strategy isn’t anything special. Judging from the fairly standard conventions, they will continue to try and attract voters with a big tent for typically Democratic voting blocs, particularly Black people, Hispanics and suburban Rust Belt whites. If Trump and his party can keep a consistent convention-like message for the next two months for reelection, a second term may be further from a longshot than many believe.

Ted writes primarily about electoral politics for The Pitt News. Write to him at [email protected].