There is something to be said for getting to know someone well. Sure, you can go and party and… There is something to be said for getting to know someone well. Sure, you can go and party and have a good time with people you see for maybe three hours every week. However, is there not also a pleasure in getting to know someone thoroughly? Eventually, this leads two bodies to extreme familiarity, and one friend can often predict what the other is going to do. The two become, in a sense, joined at the hip.

The 21 years Richard M. Daley has ruled Chicago have given the residents of Cook County plenty of time to get to know all of his idiosyncrasies, from his classic tagline “What else do you want me to do? Take my pants off?” to “Go scrutinize yourself! I get scrootened every day, don’t worry, from each and every one of you. It doesn’t bother me.” Those 21 years have also let everyone in Cook County get comfortable with him running the show — until recently. With irritation rising at high parking-meter rates, taxes and everything else plaguing Chicago, Mayor Daley decided not to run for re-election, triggering a scramble in the political world that has not been seen since the last time an incumbent mayor wasn’t in the mix in Chicago, way back in 1947. In this second part of a two-part series, I examine the Scramble for Chicago.

In these last few weeks, we’ve seen everybody and their uncle try to secure the sede vacante in an office that had been considered,  in Daley’s case at least, his position for life. The candidates and potential candidates are far-ranging, from Alderman Brendan Reilly of the upscale 42nd Ward; to U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill. 4th District), perpetual self-appointed Latino spokesman; to Miguel del Valle, city clerk; to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel; to Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart; and possibly U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill 2nd District). Oprah Winfrey is about the only prominent Chicagoan somebody hasn’t suggested is running for mayor, but with The Oprah Winfrey Show winding down this year, who knows?

Each of the seriously discussed candidates has his or her own advantages and disadvantages, and in the case of a three-way race we could see Chicago’s large political blocs collide with each other.

Personally, I think the next mayor of Chicago is going to be black. Why? The last time we had a lively three-way race was 1983, which resulted in the white vote being split and Harold Washington winning the mayor’s office, making him the first black man to do so. This time, my hunch is that we end up with a Latino candidate splitting the North Side votes with Emanuel or Brendan Reilly, the Southwest Side votes going to Tom Dart — leaving the city’s blacks the only undivided constituency. At 36.8 percent of the city according to the U.S. Census Bureau, this makes the black vote decisive. Who can deliver it? I’m guessing state Sen. Rev. James Meeks, who has the political organization and likely the support of black churches. So, Meeks will either be mayor, or kingmaker.

This election is also likely to mark the end of the era when one person was able to wield political power for so long. Daley was able to remain mayor partly through deft control of patronage, partly through lack of serious candidates in opposition, and partly by maintaining political organizations in each of the major ethnic groups of the city. The next mayor will inherit few of these advantages. With the city bankrupt and a federal prosecutor that has convicted prominent Daley aides, candidates now have little money to spread around and strong incentives not to try too much funny business.

Political organizations will likely be in disarray following this election. There will be groups set up to deliver the votes of certain voting blocs for one candidate or another, none of which will be keen on going away or helping the eventual mayor when all the shouting is over. With the loss of political patronage, the new mayor will have little available to persuade these political groups to simply desist. So, instead of one city Democratic Machine running the show from City Hall, you will have several that might see more to gain by remaining in opposition and working for the overthrow of the mayor rather than serving docilely and taking what little the mayor can offer them.

With so many candidates entering the race, we see that there are enough people in Chicago interested in the position to make it less secure. It also suggests that the mayor hasn’t been able to anoint a successor of some kind, knocking the idle speculators aside. If Daley can’t do this now, future mayors won’t be able to either. “The City That Works” is hard at work finding a new mayor. But this time, he won’t be king.

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