A week ago, Pitt basketball was craving a win anywhere possible.
The Panthers had lost three straight games heading into a home matchup with Wake Forest, and their NCAA Tournament hopes were dwindling.
After bringing home a double overtime win over the Demon Deacons and a statement road victory against Syracuse over the weekend, the Pitt men’s basketball team (19-7, 8-6 ACC) wants more — a statement win for its tournament resumé.
While the victory this weekend at the Carrier Dome might be one of the Panthers’ most important wins of the season, there’s still two important home games against ranked teams fastly approaching. The week ahead could be critical in determining how far Pitt can go in March.
Between the tight race in the top half of the ACC standings and team momentum seemingly changing course every week, Pitt has a chance to either prepare for a serious run or falter at the worst possible time.
On Wednesday, No. 11 Louisville comes to town with a surging No. 15 Duke only four days later. Pitt sits at eighth in the ACC, and the Cardinals (21-6, 10-4 ACC) are third, but only two games in the standings separate those teams.
Two wins — with help from similarly situated teams like Clemson and Notre Dame — could vault Pitt into the upper echelon of the conference, just in time for the ACC Tournament in early March.
Pitt is at 8-6 in the conference, but only 1.5 games separate Duke — fifth in the ACC — from Syracuse, which is ninth, just behind Pitt. So even with only a handful of regular season games left, predicting an ACC Tournament bracket remains murky.
Splitting these two home games, followed by road wins over sub-.500 Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, should leave Pitt fans ecstatic. That would add up to an 11-7 conference record and likely somewhere in the No. 5-7 seed range for the ACC Tournament — once you remove Louisville from the equation, after its self-imposed postseason ban in the wake of an NCAA investigation.
That’s important because in a best-case scenario, if Pitt nets a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, it would earn a single bye for the ACC Tournament. In that range, it would play a comparable and beatable team in the quarterfinals, possibly No. 4 Duke or Notre Dame.
On the flip side, if Pitt splits its final four games of the season, it could remain around a No. 8 or 9 seed and likely face off against No. 1 North Carolina after its single bye. After the Tar Heels’ recent 21-point obliteration of the Panthers, that would not be ideal.
If the season ended today, before this week’s games, Pitt would have the No. 7 seed, play Florida State in its first game, and then face Miami or Virginia.
A win or two this week, especially considering the pedigrees and profiles that Louisville and Duke boast, would also seriously boost Pitt’s NCAA Tournament outlook. Currently, the Syracuse win vaulted Pitt from squarely on the bubble to tentatively in the field, according to experts.
“Panthers have swept the ‘Cuse this season and also have a road win in South Bend [Notre Dame] on their resumé,” ESPN’s Jeff Goodman wrote. “Barring late-season collapse, Pitt should be in good shape to get into NCAA tourney.”
Additionally, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently projects the Panthers as a No. 9 seed in March Madness, set to face off against No. 8 Florida, with No. 1 overall seed Villanova looming in the next round.
Before the big games this week or the ACC Tournament, this is all foggy speculation. It only helps to understand the urgency of these final regular season contests for Jamie Dixon’s squad, because that seeding can fluctuate wildly in the next couple weeks.
Beat Louisville and Duke, take care of business on the road and win a game in the ACC Tournament? Pitt could jump up to a No. 5 or 6 seed for the big dance. Split the final four games, and the Panthers may be sweating it out on Selection Sunday to see if they even earned a spot.
The narrative for Pitt this season — and even the past couple of seasons — has been that it’s hard to get a good read on the team because of its often soft early-season schedule and penchant for inconsistency in conference play.
So it is fitting that now, three months after Pitt tipped its season off against St. Joseph’s, its postseason chances and seeding are still anyone’s guess.
For Dixon, though, none of that will matter this week. After the win over Syracuse, he pointed out that any win in the competitive ACC is valuable, especially against a high-quality opponent.
“[Syracuse] is a good one for us, and obviously they all are, as we know, they all are in this conference we play in,” Dixon said. “But we’ll get ready for Louisville going forward.”