Pecyna: Possible wild card playoff means modified game plan

A lackluster August for the Pirates, who have played .500 baseball for the month, has tightened the National League Central standings. 

While the Pirates play through their doldrums, the third-place Cincinnati Reds have caught fire, posting a 14-7 record through 21 games in August and moving to within 2.5 games of the division lead. 

St. Louis, tied with Pittsburgh atop the standings, has sustained its winning pace by going 14-9 for the month. 

In other words, it may be time to start adjusting post-season predictions. No, I’m not implying the Pirates are going to collapse and fall out of the race altogether. All I am suggesting is that the team should prepare for the worst playoff scenario: battling in the do-or-die single play-in game. 

A one-game series requires high-risk, high-reward strategies — a blueprint that takes no consideration of the future and places all emphasis on the single game at hand. In other words, each inning should capitalize on every player’s strengths, every platoon advantage. So who then toes the rubber for the Pirates as the starting pitcher, should they find themselves in the wild card playoff? 

The answer is too obvious: The starter is the most effective pitcher, the guy who most frequently hurls that little white sphere and misses the stick of wood his opponent swings. 

Based on a single statistic, there are actually two pitchers who would suffice for the team — Jason Grilli and Francsico Liriano. And the statistic to determine as much is contact rate — the self-explanatory metric that indicates how frequently a pitcher throws the baseball and the batter swings and does not whiff. 

The less the ball is batted into play, the less damage can be done. 

According to FanGraphs, Grilli has limited hitters to a 69.5 percent contact rate. Hitters have swung and hit Liriano 69.8 percent of the time. For reference of how dominant these two have been, consider how the league average-contact rate hovers around 80 percent on a yearly basis.

It’s dangerous business, gauging a player’s worth with one stat, but it’s also dangerous business deciding the outcome of a season in a single game in the first place. 

I should point out that FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron suggested a similar strategy for the Braves before last year’s one-game playoff, recommending they use closer Craig Kimbrel to start. In 2012, Kimbrel posted a 61.1 percent contact rate — the lowest rate in 2012. 

Cameron then explained that Atlanta would be better off using the rest of its bullpen and even starters based on platoon splits. Finally, Cameron argued, Kris Medlen would come in for the final three innings or so. In 2012, Medlen got his chance to pitch in the starting rotation on July 31 and proceeded to allow no more than three runs in any start. 

In other words, Cameron said the Braves should use the best pitcher on the team for the first couple innings, play the next three or four innings by individual matchups and save the best starter for the final innings if necessary. 

The similarity between the 2012 Braves and the 2013 Pirates is that both bullpens dominated, recording some of the best stats in the NL. One of those numbers is win probability added (WPA), a counting metric that factors how a player’s — or group of players, like a bullpen — performance added to the likelihood of winning the game. 

Over the entire 2012 season, the Braves had a 7.14 WPA. Stated simply, the relievers added about seven wins to Atlanta’s record. In 33 fewer games, the Pirates’ 2013 bullpen has posted a WPA over 10. 

But while the 2012 version of Medlen and the current version of Liriano have comparable numbers, the former had pitched predominantly from the pen the same season. The latter has not done so consistently since 2006. 

So what we’re looking at is a better bullpen and a premier option to start the game for the 2013 Bucs. 

Give Liriano the start and let him go three innings. In the first three innings, Liriano has held opponents to a .574 on-base plus slugging percentage. In the fourth through sixth innings, batters have an OPS over 80 percentage points higher. 

Spare the downgrade indicated in Liriano’s performance as the game progresses by pitching Grilli in the fourth and fifth innings. Grilli is currently on the disabled list with a strained tendon in his right forearm, but is expected back before post-season play begins. Mark Melancon, who has covered masterfully for Grilli in the closer role, can throw the sixth and seventh innings. 

By this point, the Pirates would hope to have taken a significant lead on their opponents or at least be in a close game. If the latter is the case, go with Cameron’s advice and play the platoon matchups: lefties Justin Wilson and Tony Watson face right-handed batters while righty hurlers Vin Mazzaro, Jared Hughes and Bryan Morris face lefty hitters. 

Should the game be a blowout in their favor, the Pirates have long-reliever Jeanmar Gomez to pitch up to five innings — his longest outing in 2013. 

The Braves went the traditional route in their wild card play-in against the Cardinals. They started Medlen, who allowed five runs — two earned — in six and one-third innings and sent in their dominant relievers afterwards. But it was too late for them to protect any type of lead, resulting in a 6-3 loss and the end of their season. 

The alternative pitching plan seems convoluted. But, considering the fact that the 162 games preceding the wild card playoff are irrelevant, game theory should not be boiled down too simply. 

Of course, the easy alternative is to win the division, but as always with the Pirates, it’s best to just prepare for the worst.