A brokered convention’s keystone

Stumping Donald Trump, will require Pennsylvania Republicans’ help.

As the nominating process for the GOP lurches into its third month, the potential of a so-called brokered convention continues to loom large. That scenario has increasingly become the anti-Trump movement’s last hope of denying the Republican front-runner and mogul the simple majority of delegates needed to win the nomination at the Republican National Convention this summer.

And the 71 delegates at stake in the Keystone State’s April 26 Republican primary can do more than just set back the reality TV star’s pursuit of a majority. They’re exactly the type of Rust Belt votes Ohio Gov. John Kasich can win from Trump and are crucial to ensuring a brokered convention, where no one candidate can win by delegate total alone.

What makes Pennsylvania’s position so interesting has a lot to do with the voter base that Trump typically attracts. The coalition that handed him landslide victories in deep south primaries, such as Alabama and Georgia, has also delivered surprising wins in traditionally blue states, such as Massachusetts and Illinois. Chalk this up to Trump’s remarkable ability to rally support among blue collar and working class white voters, particularly on issues surrounding immigration and international trade.

Demographics in Pennsylvania seem to bode well for Trump. Historically manufacturing-centered, urban areas like Pittsburgh and Scranton appear to be prime Trump territory. Unusually high levels of voters switching their party registration in the state also seems to back Trump’s frequent claim that large numbers of disenchanted Democrats will allow him to “win us the election and win it easily.”

Fortunately for so-called “establishment” Republicans, the state is much more salvageable than it might seem at first. A landslide win for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in similar Rust Belt state Wisconsin showed that Trump doesn’t hold a monopoly on appealing to working-class white voters.

In light of Cruz’s Wisconsin victory and overwhelming advantage in western states, many — including Trump himself — have called for Kasich to drop out of the contest because he’s supposedly siphoning votes from the other two candidates.

But if the GOP’s goal is to deny Trump a majority of delegates, Kasich is vital to competing in the remaining northeastern contests. And the Ohio governor is particularly well-situated to win over the Keystone State’s 17 winner-take-all, pledged statewide delegates and a sizeable portion of its unpledged delegates.

Vital to winning our state’s Republican primary are good performances in the two main centers of population: Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Kasich’s tendency to do better in areas where voters are generally less conservative and better educated doesn’t bode well for his ability to compete in the rural center of the state. Deep red counties similar to those between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were the backbone of Cruz’s electoral strategy in many of the states he’s already won. It’s not hard to see Trump winning these areas, either.

Fortunately, there’s a completely different story in the more influential vote from Pennsylvania’s urban corners. According to pollster G. Terry Madonna, moderate, educated and relatively wealthy Republicans hailing from Philadelphia’s suburbs are likely Kasich’s key demographic.

This seems to be exactly the kind of GOP primary voter the Ohio governor is gaining support from. According to a Franklin & Marshall College poll released March 24, Kasich virtually doubled his share of support among likely primary voters in Pennsylvania from 15 to 30 percent.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s departure from the race after losing the March 15 primary in his home state likely played a role in consolidating the suburban vote he had been splitting with Kasich. And this surge in suburban unity has placed Kasich within the margin of error for surpassing Trump, who sat at 33 percent in the Franklin & Marshall poll.

This leaves Pittsburgh and the rest of southwestern Pennsylvania in the position of being  the potential kingmaker — at least for the allocation of statewide delegates. There are more than a few reasons to believe Kasich might have an easier time beating Trump here than Cruz would.

The Ohio governor’s 13-point victory in his home state’s March 15 primary over Trump was thanks in large part to the “favorite son” effect. But there’s no reason to believe Kasich, a native of McKees Rocks, wouldn’t enjoy a similar — albeit somewhat smaller — bump in local polls.

Trump’s key constituency — blue-collar, working-class whites — is indeed a considerable portion of Pittsburgh’s electorate, even as educational and health-related industries continue to become relatively more important for the region. But another vital part of Trump’s appeal is related to voters’ frustration with a lack of economic opportunity. With Pittsburgh ranking among the top metropolitan areas in the country for blue-collar job production, workers here simply don’t have as much reason to be riled up by the nationalist rhetoric Trump specializes in.

The Pittsburgh area may simply be too heavily Democratic-leaning to choose Cruz over Trump. The Texas Senator’s primary dominance in deeply Republican areas is mirrored by a general inability to corral the vote in more liberal areas.

The very real possibility of a Kasich victory in Pennsylvania makes an outright delegate majority for Trump at the Republican Convention in Cleveland that much less likely. Even without a brokered convention, the state’s 54 unbound delegates will hold a considerable amount of power.

In any case, the conclusion is clear: Pennsylvania Republicans need to recognize the incredible level of importance that our choice of candidate entails. If anti-Trump votes can coalesce around Kasich here, the likelihood of a brokered convention increases dramatically and a Trump victory for the nomination becomes far less certain.

But if Pennsylvania Republicans don’t present a united front against him, the GOP could end up telling Trump a message we don’t usually associate with him:

“You’re hired.”

Henry primarily writes on government and domestic policy for The Pitt News.

Write Henry at hgg7@pitt.edu.