Tepper: Pitt fans must stay optimistic

It had been fairly quiet in the world of Pitt sports.

The basketball team disappointed in the NCAA tournament by losing in the first round to Wichita State to quickly enter the offseason. Football was in the middle of spring practices, which only the diehard fans really care about. Baseball had a promising start, but not many students paid any attention.

But on April 1, Pitt fans encountered a rude awakening — something they are all too familiar with.

This time it wasn’t a coach, but a player. Rushel Shell, a sophomore running back and unquestioned feature back, asked for his transfer papers.

As a lifelong Pitt fan, I was perturbed, but mostly confounded. Pitt seemed perfect for him. Pittsburgh was basically his hometown and, most importantly, he would be taking the lion’s share of the carries in an offense that heavily showcases his talents to NFL scouts.

Without much time to recover, the next piece of news hit the following day: Trey Zeigler, senior shooting guard, was transferring, as well, after coming to Pitt from Central Michigan earlier in the year.

That same day, hours later, the biggest bomb dropped: Steven Adams was taking his talents to the professional ranks. It was the knockout blow — the cheap shot Pitt fans weren’t ready for. All season, somewhat resoundingly, he had repeated that he was staying at Pitt for at least another year. But after some thought and a pressing need to financially support his family in New Zealand, Adams decided that a move to the NBA was the right one for him.

It’s now been two weeks since the flurry of abdications from Pitt’s teams, and hopefully fans have dried their tears. With plenty of time to think about it, my feelings have changed from disappointment to optimism.

Here’s why.

A college football team, for one, is made up of a maximum of 85 scholarship players, plus walk-ons and transfers. Shell is only one of those players. He was an important player, no doubt. After running for 641 yards on 141 carries as a freshman, the once-prized recruit looked primed for a big year.

But in a Paul Chryst offense, running backs are easily replaceable. Just take a look at the running backs who have rushed for 1,000 yards under Chryst at Wisconsin: Brian Calhoun (2005-2006), P.J. Hill (2006-2008), James White (2010-2012), John Clay (2008-2010) and Montee Ball(2009-2012) . Out of those five, only Calhoun and Ball are looking primed to be drafted. Calhoun was a third-round pick to the Detroit Lions in 2006, but played sparingly and was released in 2009. Ball is projected to be drafted in the second round, but most don’t think he has what it takes to be an above-average starter in the NFL.

The reason a Chryst offense is so successful running the ball isn’t because of the talent at running back, but rather the offensive line. Although Pitt might not have the road graders up front that Wisconsin has typically had, they do have the potential to be successful. If they are, Isaac Bennett should have no problem running for well over 1,000 yards.

As far as the basketball team goes, the Zeigler transfer doesn’t hurt as much as it may seem. Zeigler was the 10th man — averaging only 4.4 points per game and 2 rebounds per game — on a crowded Panthers bench last year, and losing someone like that doesn’t merit concern.

Adams, however, was the most indispensable player on the team. The freshman center was the biggest reason Pitt went from the CBI in 2012 to the NCAA tournament. His defensive play was a leading factor to the team’s success, as it propelled Pitt from 121st to eighth in fewest points given up per game. When he wasn’t blocking or altering shots, Adams acted as a huge deterrent to opposing teams trying to score inside. On offense, he wasn’t a huge factor, but he often managed to clear room for his teammates and had to be accounted for.

Despite losing Adams, I’m still not worried. Jamie Dixon has done more with less talent time and time again. In the 2009-2010 season, Pitt had to replace four out of five starters from the previous year’s Elite Eight squad. With a team seemingly full of role players, Pitt finished 25-9 and received a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament.

The 2012-2013 team will return three starters in Lamar Patterson, Talib Zanna and James Robinson, along with key bench cogs J.J. Moore, Cameron Wright and Durand Johnson. Additionally, freshman forward Mike Young and guard Josh Newkirk look like they will be able to contribute immediately.

Sure, the frontcourt outlook is bleak, but Pitt should be able to find immediate help by way of the junior college ranks or from a graduate transfer. One big name in particular should give Pitt fans hope: graduate transfer Josh Davis. Davis, a 6-foot-8 forward, averaged 17.6 points and 10.7 rebounds per game for Tulane last year. By several reports, Pitt looks to be in good shape with Davis, who would likely start at power forward with the aforementioned Zanna shifting to center.

Throughout my years as a Pitt fan, I’ve experienced many crushing blows, and these losses are not crushing blows. As it stands now, I wouldn’t worry too much about the football and basketball teams. Well, at least until the next inevitable gut punch comes.

Write Jeremy at jat140@pitt.edu.