Barnes: Analyzing, predicting Pitt’s entire 2012 football schedule

For a team many selected to finish in the middle of the pack among Big East competitors in this…For a team many selected to finish in the middle of the pack among Big East competitors in this upcoming football season, the 2012 edition of the Pittsburgh Panthers has the potential to rise up and claim a conference championship.

Although the Panthers are talented, the strength of schedule — or lack thereof — in the Panthers’ final season as a Big East member could play an aiding role in Pitt’s hopes for competing in a bowl slightly more notable than the BBVA Compass Bowl.

Here’s a rundown of Pitt’s football schedule for this year, along with some predictions for how I see the season playing out.

Youngstown State

The Panthers start their campaign this Saturday with a classic cupcake game against the Penguins, Pitt’s lowly Football Championship Subdivision opposition from a small school in Ohio.

The biggest threat for Youngstown State comes from running back Jamaine Cook, who racked up 1,599 all-purpose yards last season, but these Penguins might need Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to have a chance in this game.

Expect Pitt to take care of business easily, as the Panthers prepare for a week-two showdown with conference rival Cincinnati.

Pitt beats the Penguins, 34-10.

Cincinnati

In a rare early season matchup with a Big East conference opponent, the Panthers have an early opportunity to jump on top of the conference standings with a win against the Bearcats in the River City Rivalry.

This matchup should favor the Panthers, with the Bearcats having lost quarterback Zach Collaros and running back Isaiah Pead, last season’s Big East Offensive Player of the Year.

The Cincinnati defense also lost a number of talented starters, namely defensive tackle Derek Wolfe, who earned 2011 Big East co-Defensive Player of the Year. In addition to the personnel losses and questions surrounding the Bearcats, Pitt should also benefit from having played one game and Cincinnati’s beginning the season with a bye.

Pitt wins this Thursday-night game in front of a national audience, 24-14.

No. 16 Virginia Tech

The Hokies pose the largest challenge to Pitt out of any team on the schedule.

Like Cincy, Virginia Tech also needs to find replacements for key players on offense, especially running back David Wilson, the 2011 ACC Player of the Year.

But after tossing 30 touchdowns and setting a single-season school record with 3,482 passing yards in his first season, quarterback Logan Thomas appears primed to become one of college football’s renowned signal callers.

The Hokies’ defense should be the best the Panthers will face this season, which could cause problems for Pitt quarterback Tino Sunseri.

Virginia Tech shows Pitt what ACC football is all about, 30-10.

Gardner-Webb

After playing the toughest team on their schedule, the Panthers get a break before diving into Big East play with a game against arguably their easiest opponent, FCS school Gardner-Webb.

The Runnin’ Bulldogs (yes, that is their nickname) will return their leading rusher from last season, Kenny Little, who posted 1,107 yards on 200 carries. Even that should not provide much trouble to Pitt’s defense, which year-in and year-out is always stout against opposing teams’ rushing attacks.

Pitt cruises, 35-10.

Syracuse

In Pitt’s second conference matchup, the Panthers will face a Syracuse team that figures to boast one of the Big East’s best passing attacks. Quarterback Ryan Nassib returns after passing for 2,689 yards and 22 touchdowns in his 2011 campaign.

Catching his passes will be a group of experienced receivers led by Alec Lemon, who snagged 68 balls for a total of 834 yards and 6 touchdowns last season.

Beyond the passing game, though, there isn’t much to strike fear in the hearts of the Orange’s opponents. The running game is unproven, and there is no clear starter, while the team that ranked last in the Big East in total defense last season will not be much improved.

Pitt pulls away in the end, 31-17.

No. 25 Louisville

In the Panthers’ game representing the midway point of the 2012 season, they will take on the Cardinals that many picked this summer to win the conference crown at the season’s conclusion.

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater turned a lot of heads as a true freshman last season, and he will only be better this year. With a talented group of young receivers, Louisville has arguably the most athletically gifted offense in the conference.

On defense, the Cardinals will return a number of players from the unit that ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed last season. This poses a huge problem for Pitt because, in the event Ray Graham and the running game cannot get going, the onus falls on the shoulders of Sunseri. When Pitt needs to rely on the pass this season, good things will not usually happen.

Louisville wins this crucial game, 27-13.

Buffalo

In a rare nonconference matchup in the middle of the season for Pitt, the Panthers travel to the home of the Bulls. Fortunately, the game gives Pitt a chance to recover somewhat after what will likely be a tough, hard-fought contest against Louisville.

The only true bright spot for the Bulls is tailback Branden Oliver, who set a school record with 1,395 rushing yards last season. Beyond that, fans should not expect Buffalo to offer up much resistance against Pitt.

Pitt takes care of business, 31-10.

Temple

In their first year of Big East competition, the Temple Owls come to Heinz Field to take on the Panthers in their final year of Big East play. This season, led by quarterback Chris Coyer, the Owls will look to find success against BCS competition after a seven-year hiatus from the conference.

With Coyer posing a dual-threat as the signal caller in Coach Steve Addazio’s spread option, the Owls also have depth at the running back position with Matt Brown, who rushed for 916 yards as the second option out of the backfield, Kenny Harper and Boston College transfer Montel Harris.

Defensively, the Owls lose a lot of contributors from the previous season’s squad, and should not give the Pitt offense too much trouble during the game.

This could be close, but Pitt wins, 28-13.

Notre Dame

Keeping with the tradition of the past few years, Pitt will play Notre Dame late in the season, and heading to South Bend, Ind., will pose a challenge for the Panthers.

Offensively, Tommy Rees will man the helm in the early going, but the team’s receiving corps lacks depth after the departure of Michael Floyd. After Rees threw 14 interceptions last season, the Fighting Irish need to field reliable targets for Rees.

The defense will be the strength of this year’s squad, as many key contributors from last year’s unit will return.

Don’t expect many points in the game, but Notre Dame will score more, 20-14.

Connecticut

After finishing last in the Big East in total offense last season, little should convince Pitt fans the Huskies will give the Panthers too much difficulty. Leading the offense is tailback Lyle McCombs, a freshman All-American choice last season after putting up 1,151 yards and seven touchdowns.

But his numbers will decrease if the passing game does not improve, which is the biggest concern for the Huskies this year.

Pitt comes away victorious from this mid-week matchup, 23-14.

Rutgers

Another team that will contend for the Big East crown, Rutgers may be an obstacle in Pitt’s way toward staking its own claim to said crown. Rutgers has arguably the deepest wide receiver corps in the conference, with Brandon Coleman, Mark Harrison and Quron Pratt leading the way.

Defensively, the Scarlet Knights will be possibly the conference’s best team in that respect. They return Khaseem Greene and the league’s leading pass defense, which will make games very tough on opposing offenses.

The Scarlet Knights have a new head coach, but they always seem to have Pitt’s number.

Rutgers wins, 24-17.

South Florida

Pitt concludes its season on the road in a matchup that could very well decide the conference’s champion. Regarded by some as the biggest threat to the conference favorite, Louisville, dual-threat quarterback B.J. Daniels will lead the Bulls.

USF also boasts a strong receiving corps, led by Sterling Griffin, Florida transfer Chris Dunkley and Andre Davis.

On defense, the Bulls have experience at the safety and linebacker positions, but they will need to find answers for the line. Although the questions are not as pressing, USF will require some young linemen to step up and make the defense even more formidable. This game could be won in the trenches.

Pitt finishes the regular season on a losing note by falling to South Florida, 31-14.

With that defeat, I expect the Panthers to finish the season with a respectable 7-5 record (4-3 Big East).

That won’t be enough to win the conference for Pitt, but Pitt fans should be pleased if Chryst can lead the team to a winning record and perhaps the Pinstripe Bowl in New York in his first season in charge.