Barnes: Analyzing the studs and duds of this year’s NBA Draft

It’s one of my favorite times of year to follow the NBA — the draft is complete, free agency… It’s one of my favorite times of year to follow the NBA — the draft is complete, free agency is in full swing and we are in the home stretch before teams open training camp in September.

And now that the NBA Draft results are finally on the books, it’s time to analyze rather than speculate. As such, here are my thoughts on some of the players selected in this year’s draft:

Players who will make the biggest impact on their new teams:

Anthony Davis, Forward, New Orleans Hornets

Davis, the lengthy 6-foot-11 No. 1 overall draft choice, is the obvious player to talk about, and he will be the odds-on favorite to be NBA Rookie of the Year.

Davis is the single player in this insanely deep draft that is a sure bet to be a perennial All-Star and potential Hall of Famer.

While leading the Kentucky Wildcats to the NCAA National Championship in April, Davis led the team in scoring and rebounding at 14.2 points (on a team-high 62.3 percent shooting) and 10.2 rebounds per game. Davis also posted the nation’s best blocks-per-game average at 4.7 swats per contest.

After proving he was capable of leading a winning team in the regular season, Davis reaffirmed that notion against college basketball’s best competition during the NCAA Tournament. In the Wildcats’ dominant six-game journey to the national title, Davis averaged 13.7 points on 51 percent shooting, 12.3 rebounds and 4.8 blocks per game.

This season, in conjunction with Hornets guard Eric Gordon, No. 10 overall selection Austin Rivers and whomever else the Hornets acquire in free agency, expect Davis to be a big factor in helping the team reinstate itself as a playoff contender.

Thomas Robinson, Forward, Sacramento Kings

If there’s another player in the NBA’s Draft Class of 2012 that is as close to a “sure thing” as Davis, it’s Robinson.

One of the rare draftees who didn’t leave college after one year, Robinson played three years under Bill Self at Kansas and is as NBA-ready as prospects can possibly arrive.

During Kansas’ run to the National Championship game, when the Jayhawks lost to Davis’ Wildcats, Robinson was unquestionably the former team’s best player. In the 2011-2012 season, Robinson posted 17.7 points and 11.9 rebounds per game — both team-highs.

As a King, Robinson will likely start at the power forward position right away. His 6-foot-9, 250-pound frame will pair with the bulk of center DeMarcus Cousins to create one of the league’s best upcoming frontcourts. And with Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton and Isaiah Thomas on the perimeter, the Kings will have one of the league’s best young starting lineups. With Robinson’s presence filling out that lineup, expect the Kings to contend for one of the last spots in the playoffs next season.

Player who will make the least impact on his new team:

Bradley Beal, Guard, Washington Wizards

All throughout the NCAA basketball schedule, we heard about how great this year’s draft class would be and how deep it was. But one player not many had heard about until recently is Bradley Beal, the Wizards’ No. 3 overall selection.

That’s not a good sign.

According to most, Beal’s best attribute is his 3-point shooting, leading some even to go as far as to compare him to the league’s best 3-point shooter ever, Ray Allen.

But the problem with this theory is that Beal shot only 33.9 percent from long range this past season at Florida. For a rough reference point, remember that Pitt’s Ashton Gibbs shot 34.5 percent from the 3-point line this past year, and he was not drafted at all.

The Wizards will say they drafted for need by taking a shooting guard who will spread the floor for star point guard John Wall, but they could easily have picked up that type of player in free agency.

Much better players than Beal, such as the aforementioned Robinson, were available to the Wizards at No. 3 overall.

Player drafted too high: 

Dion Waiters, Guard, Cleveland Cavaliers

This one sticks out like a sore thumb, and the usage of the draft’s No. 4 overall pick on a player who didn’t even start for Syracuse has to hurt Cavs fans almost as much as the plantar warts currently plaguing my right heel.

Anyway, Waiters somehow shot up draft boards in the months between the end of March Madness and draft night on June 28. Although he was ranked as high as No. 6 on some analysts’ draft lists, Waiters is rather undersized for a shooting guard at 6-foot-4.

At Syracuse, Waiters did score the ball well, clocking in at 12.6 points per game in only 24.1 minutes per game. But the majority of his scoring derived from his ability to drive to the basket against slower, physically inferior players. That style won’t necessarily translate to success in the NBA, and his below-average jump shot will not help him create room for himself on offense.

Waiters may turn out to be a quality NBA player, but there isn’t enough on his resume to convince me he will be a star, which is what you should be aiming to select if you own any of the draft’s top five picks.

Player drafted too low: 

Jared Sullinger, Forward, Boston Celtics

Concerns over Sullinger’s physical capabilities and his chronic back injuries are the culprits responsible for the talented forward’s dropping to No. 21 overall, where he was selected by the Boston Celtics.

But if he can stay healthy, I think the Celtics chose themselves at least a starter and maybe even a top-10 NBA power forward down the line.

I know Sullinger isn’t the most athletic of players and doesn’t have the physical attributes to make scouts drool, but he knows how to play basketball the right way.

And that is the skill that translates to the NBA more than anything. Sullinger has what some would call a “tremendously high basketball IQ,” and he is an extremely smart player.

At Ohio State, he averaged 17.4 points on 53 percent shooting and 9.7 rebounds per game over the course of his two seasons. Playing in the Big Ten, one of the nation’s most competitive and talent-filled conferences, those numbers are solid enough to convince me that Sullinger will be a fine NBA player.

With no potential lockout to worry about this year, this season’s NBA rookies will be able to get into training camps right away and begin familiarizing themselves with their teams and the league in hopes of reaching the ultimate goal of helping the team that drafted them win a coveted NBA championship.