Barnes: Spurs, Celtics will meet in NBA Finals

With the penultimate round of the NBA Playoffs already under way, it is time for a slightly… With the penultimate round of the NBA Playoffs already under way, it is time for a slightly belated preview.

Eastern Conference Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat (Heat lead series 1-0)

The Celtics would not be playing the Heat if not for the devastating injuries suffered by Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah of the top-seeded Chicago Bulls in the first round, erasing the Bulls’ hopes at a title run and a shot at redemption after losing to the Heat in last year’s conference finals.

But that doesn’t mean Boston should be taken lightly in this series.

Although everyone will be talking about other high-profile players — the injury to Miami forward Chris Bosh, the incredible performances of the Heat’s star duo of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and the last chance of winning a title for Boston’s aging “big three” of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett — the fate of this series rests in the hands of Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo.

Rondo, who led the league in assists during the regular season and leads the playoffs in the same category so far, is the Celtics’ floor general. He doesn’t have the best jump shot in the world, but the argument can certainly be made that Rondo is the best point guard in the league and that his play is most important to his team’s success. In this series, his significance will be on trial to the fullest extent.

Game 1 of the series showed just that.

Miami focused heavily on Rondo and held him to 16 points, nine rebounds and seven assists. Since no single player on the Heat is capable of guarding Rondo, every Heat defender keyed in on him to limit his impact on the game, and Boston’s offense seemed out of rhythm at times as a result.

Yes, the Celtics lost Game 1, 93-79. But with their veteran leadership and Rondo’s competitiveness, they will bounce back.

In Doc Rivers, Boston has a better and more experienced coach than does Miami, and the Celtics’ roster is simply deeper than the Heat’s.

So I am sticking with the prediction I would have made before the series started.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (Spurs lead series 1-0)

The Thunder are talented, fast and easily becoming the most appealing team in the league, despite playing in a small market.

Explosive point guard Russell Westbrook, regular-season leading scorer Kevin Durant and the versatile James Harden are arguably the best “big three” the NBA has to offer right now, and the Thunder are projected to essentially rule the Western Conference for several years, assuming the front office keeps the core of those three and block machine Serge Ibaka together.

But the guard has not changed quite yet, as the veteran Spurs look to win their fifth championship since 1999. Coach Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all heard about how they should move on to the greener pastures of retirement after the upset loss to the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies in last year’s playoffs.

But this year, with a retooled roster and a faster playing style, the Spurs are on the verge of another championship.

In this extremely compelling series, the Spurs have too many weapons for the Thunder’s defense to handle. The Spurs’ potent offense is predicated on ball movement — something they do better than any team I’ve ever seen in the game of basketball — whereas the Thunder look to score. This means Oklahoma City’s play often consists of four players standing around watching Durant, Westbrook or Harden try to drain a contested jump shot.

If the Spurs can shut down any of Oklahoma City’s talented young trio — as they did with Harden in Game 1 — the Thunder offense will struggle to score. But if you shut down one of the Spurs’ three best players, someone off the bench, such as Stephen Jackson, Kawhi Leonard or former Pitt star DeJuan Blair, will step up and fill that hole in offensive production.

San Antonio also has a massive advantage in the coaching department.

Thunder coach Scott Brooks, who has done a fantastic job of molding his young group of superstars into a winning team the past few years, is a quality young coach, but he is facing off against the best coach in the NBA today in Popovich.

Popovich has led the Spurs to all four of their titles, and that experience gives him a template on how to manage the scenarios he will see in this series. Experience alone will not win games, but it will certainly help, as the Spurs’ comeback victory in Game 1 proved.

Despite the advantages the Spurs have, the Thunder are still extremely talented with Durant, Westbrook and Harden leading the way, and Oklahoma City’s passionate home crowd will help them win a couple games.

I’ve got the home team winning all seven games in this series.

Prediction: Spurs in 7