Experts analyze Republican primary before Florida primary

There are three candidates left fighting for the Republican presidential nominee, and each has… There are three candidates left fighting for the Republican presidential nominee, and each has won a state primary. But this doesn’t mean the race is split between three different, qualified candidates.

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, said that this Republican presidential election is more superficial than substantive.

“[The Republican Primary is] a clash of personalities more than anything else. The great majority of Republican primary voters could not spell out the differences among these candidates on issues like taxes, regulation, abortion and immigration, [because] there really isn’t one,” Lichtman said.

Thus far, three states have held a primary or caucus, and each has produced a different winner — a phenomenon that is not uncommon in presidential primary season.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum took Iowa and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney took New Hampshire before former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina Saturday night.

South Carolina

Despite the hostile nature of the election, Pitt political science professor Jennifer Victor said the Republican party is not as ideologically fractured as the primary season makes it seem.

In 2004 and 2008, three different presidential candidates won in each of the first three states to vote in the Republican primary season, while in 2000 then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush took Alaska and Iowa before Arizona Sen. John McCain won in New Hampshire.

In 2008, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses while eventual Republican winner McCain came in fourth. McCain won a narrow victory over Huckabee in South Carolina, further cementing the state’s reputation as a bellwether for the Republican nomination.

The winner of South Carolina’s Republican primary has gone on to take the party’s nomination in every election since 1980.

But Casey Rankin, president of Pitt College Republicans, pointed out that unlike this year, in the past the winner has taken either Iowa or New Hampshire before claiming the Palmetto state.

“We’re looking at uncharted territory in historical terms,” Rankin said. “[South Carolina] is really not a good predictor of what’s going to happen next.”

Victor, who said she believes Romney will be the Republican nominee, agreed that the events of the past week were not enough for her to change that belief.

Romney’s campaign is built around the notion that he can create jobs, and Rankin claimed he does have that capability.

“He has experience in business and the private sector. I think he understands how we can create jobs and get the economy going,” Rankin said.

Gingrich’s campaign is based upon his newfound momentum and a conservative grassroots movement, which up until this point has been split between a number of candidates but seems to have finally settled on him. To that end, Gingrich has continually cast himself as a “Washington outsider” feared by the party establishment. Victor said the outsider suggestion is “disconnected from reality.”

“The idea that the party is scared suggests that he’s somehow not the Republican party. That’s ridiculous, he’s the former Speaker of the House,” Victor said. “There isn’t a more Republican Republican than Gingrich.”

Litchman said that Gingrich’s surprise win in South Carolina is mostly due to an anti-Romney sentiment in the electorate. Up to this point, the anti-Romney vote has been split between a number of candidates, including Santorum, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. Since the latter two have dropped out of the race, conservative support has swayed toward Gingrich.

“The Republican electorate doesn’t want Romney and now they seem to have focused on a single alternative in Newt Gingrich,” Lichtman said. “I don’t think this is so much that they love Gingrich more but that they love Romney less.”

Heading to Florida

Gingrich and Romney have emerged as front-runners in the race, and the candidates’ attention is now on Florida, which will hold its primary on Jan. 31.

Campaigning, and even voting, has already begun in the state as advertisements crowd television screens and voters mail in absentee ballots. Victor said the state is less conservative than Iowa and South Carolina, because of more urbanization and a large immigrant population.

Lichtman agrees. He said that the state requires a different kind of campaigning due to its size and diversity.

Rankin pointed out that Florida is the nation’s fourth most populated state, one of the biggest geographically and home to a number of expensive media markets. Other candidates may not be able to compete with Romney’s highly organized and well-funded campaign.

“It’s impossible to do enough town halls and campaign stops to connect with each voter like you could in South Carolina or Iowa or New Hampshire,” he said. “It’s going to be about getting on TV, being able to afford advertising and organization.”

Additionally, Lichtman said the primary process is mutually dependent and that Gingrich’s win in South Carolina could translate into success in Florida and beyond.

Moving into Florida, Rankin said he believes Gingrich will be unable to compete with Romney’s organization, and that the former governor will start to pull away with the lead over the course of the next week.

Victor said she still believes Romney will win in the end, but she would not be surprised by either candidate taking Florida, noting that a Romney victory would be the result of fundraising and organization, while a Gingrich victory would be the result of momentum and a grassroots following. Either way, she said “there’s going to be a good explanation.”

Gingrich has the edge in Lichtman’s eyes, but he said the former Speaker is “eminently capable of total self-combustion at any time.”

“It remains to be seen if he’s got the discipline and the ability to sustain a long-term campaign, and it looks like this is going to be a long-term campaign,” Lichtman said.

Both Victor and Lichtman recognized that Santorum has little chance to take Florida or the nomination, and that he is “treading water.”

Regardless of who wins in Florida, the victory will prove critical moving forward. The state “isn’t a game-ender,” Lichtman said. “The beat goes on, but obviously it’s very, very important.”