What are the Odds: Don’t shy away Fromm the under

One big break is sometimes all you need, and last week, after seven editions of What Are The Odds, I may have gotten mine with a perfect three-team NBA parlay. The Celtics, Mavericks and Lakers all won straight up for the clean sweep. Combine that big win with easy covers from Seattle over Atlanta and the under in Northwestern-Iowa, plus a straight up Rutgers victory and we’ve finally built a nice little pot to work with. After a rough start to the series, I’m finally back in the positive with an over .500 winning percentage.

Oh, and the Washington Nationals are World Champions. Everything’s coming up Milhouse! 

All-time record: 16-13

NCAA Football: 9-8

NFL: 4-5

NBA: 3-0

A quick recap for those who are new to everyone’s favorite degenerate pastime — we’ll be looking primarily at spreads, money lines and over/unders for this series. Spreads are adjusted according to who oddsmakers favor in the matchup and by how many points. Money lines are straight bets on a team to emerge victorious. Over/unders, also referred to as totals, are wagers on the total number of points scored in any given matchup.

All line info used in this series is courtesy of OddsShark.com. The Pitt News does not condone illegal gambling. Sports gambling is illegal in Pennsylvania under the age of 21.

NCAA Football:

No. 6 Florida vs. No. 8 Georgia -6, neutral site (over/under 45) 

The Pick: Under 45

The total on this game has been subject to some intriguing movement after opening at 48 points, showing a slight lean in public betting favoring the under. This might scare those less bold than I away, but fear not — Halloween is over and I still love the under.

These are two of the most talented defenses in the nation, and I’m still not sold on junior quarterback Jake Fromm and Georgia after their shocking loss to South Carolina. Fromm, the player who held off now-Hesiman contender Justin Fields for the starting job in Athens, threw for almost 300 yards while completing 28 of 51 passes with just one touchdown and three brutal interceptions.

Add that to the defensive numbers these two squads have put up in scoring defense — both ranked in the top 15 nationally in that category — and you have the perfect recipe for a trip to under city.

Friday night NBA:

Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (over/under 240.5)

The Pick: Over 240.5

240.5 is a significant total, but I’m ready to jump all over it after all, as the Rockets emerged victorious from the NBA’s third-highest scoring regulation game ever on Wednesday night over Washington. This was the second-most important matchup between franchises representing those two cities that night. Houston, led by James Harden’s 59 points, outdueled Bradley Beal and the District of Champions’ Wizards, 159 to 158.

Meanwhile in Brooklyn, newly arrived Kyrie Irving is behind only Harden in scoring after dropping a 50 burger in his Nets opener. But the team has struggled to adjust, winning just one game so far — with that lone victory coming over the one-win Knicks.

The city of Houston could use a win, and there will be plenty of points to go around. Take the over.

LA Lakers at Dallas Mavericks +1.5 (over/under 216.5)

The Pick: Over 216.5

Neither of these teams make their name on the defensive side of the game. The Mavericks rank 21st in the league in defensive rating while the Lakers rank fourth, though that’s largely because they’ve played half their games against two of the league’s worst teams, the Charlotte Hornets and Memphis Grizzlies. 216.5 is a criminally low projected total for a game that features the offensive firepower of LeBron James and Anthony Davis on one side and Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis on the other. Don’t overthink this — lock in the over.

NFL:

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens +3 (over/under 45) 

The Pick: Under 45

This one is going to be fun. An all-time defense put together by the greatest coach of this generation is marching toward history on the line against one of the league’s most exciting and unschemable young stars. Tom Brady vs. Lamar Jackson, John Harbaugh vs. Bill Belichick — this week’s Sunday night game has it all.

In his return to total oversight of New England’s defense, Belichick has them rolling at a historic rate — and Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold celebrating Halloween a few days early. The Patriots have a turnover differential of +17 and have allowed less than one touchdown per game. For those counting at home, that’s two more touchdowns allowed than the Pats’ D has actually scored themselves, if you include special teams.

The Ravens, as always, have a quality defense of their own, but Jackson has been the story for Baltimore so far. The second-year starter has racked up yardage through the air and on the ground at an unprecedented rate. The former Louisville Cardinal has put up 1,650 yards passing to go with 576 yards on the ground and, more importantly, continues to show massive improvement in his control of the Ravens’ offensive attack.

If anyone can find an answer for the dual threat that Jackson creates, it’s Belichick. Expect a low-scoring battle in Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers -4 (over/under 42)

The Pick: Over 42

Tennessee turns to former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill to start for the third consecutive week after former starter Marcus Mariota struggled to lead the Titans’ offensive attack. For Carolina and coach Ron Rivera, Kyle Allen remains under center for the Panthers after an ugly loss to the undefeated 49ers, with Cam Newton still not back from his injury.

The Panthers have been surprisingly efficient even without Newton, led by MVP-candidate running back Christian McCaffrey and Allen. The blowout loss in San Francisco was Riverboat Ron’s first loss since Tampa Bay in Week 2, winning four times with Allen as the starter over that stretch.

Tennessee has averaged 25 points per game in its two games with Tannehill as starter — a major improvement from the 16.33 it averaged with Mariota. With both quarterbacks looking to keep their hold on playing time, ride the over.

Friday NHL:

Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils (over/under 6)

The Pick: Over 6

Philadelphia narrowly missed the playoffs last year. New Jersey made a splash in the offseason by acquiring P.K. Subban to go alongside this year’s No. 1 overall draft selection Jack Hughes.

But the Devils sit squarely in the basement of the Metropolitan Division after 10 games while the Flyers lurk just above them in third-to-last. New Jersey has given up seven goals to Tampa Bay and five to Arizona over its last two games, while the Flyers come off a 7-1 beatdown here in Pittsburgh at the flippers of the Penguins.

The two goalies on both teams have not been stellar, with Brian Elliott and Carter Hart averaging a combined 3.21 goals allowed per game. New Jersey meanwhile, sport a team average of 4.10 goals allowed per game. Simple math: 4.1 + 3.21 = 7.32, which is almost an entire goal of breathing room from the designated total of six goals.