Pitt men’s basketball path to March Madness

When the calendar turns to March, fans across the country begin to anticipate March Madness. The conclusion of the college basketball season is one of the most exciting — and sometimes heartbreaking — months in all of sports. Currently, Pitt men’s basketball is still in play for a bid into the field of 68.

Entering the last week of the regular season, I will break down where Pitt currently stands, what the best-case scenario and worst-case scenario for the Panthers is and what to watch for heading into March.

Where Pitt currently stands

Pitt is currently out of March Madness, sitting within the first eight teams out of the NCAA tournament on prominent bracketologists’ projections.

Two stats that are the most important for Pitt’s March Madness hopes — NET rankings and road wins. According to the latest NET rankings, Pitt is the No. 44 best team in the country, with seven Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. Pitt’s seven road wins is a feat that only five Power 6 teams have on their resumés.

With 19 wins on the season, a high NET ranking and seven road wins, some would think the Panthers are already locked into the tournament. 

But all is not well for the Panthers. Pitt has inexcusable losses to inferior opponents. Pitt’s home loss to Missouri — who are 0-16 in the SEC — is objectively horrible. Other home losses to Syracuse and Clemson, as well as blowout losses to Duke and Wake Forest have worsened the Panthers’ tournament resumé. 

At the end of the day, the good will outweigh the bad if the Panthers can finish the season strong. But every team needs a bit of luck.

Best-case scenario

Phase one of the best-case scenario for Pitt is to win out. Pitt must win out against NC State and Florida State to put themselves in good standing. Phase two is a bit of good luck.

Pitt needs Clemson to defeat Syracuse on Tuesday. The Panthers then need Wake Forest to defeat Clemson on Saturday.

This scenario would move the Panthers to No. 4 in the ACC tournament, awarding them a double-bye and a much more favorable matchup in the quarterfinals. From here, one win against a team ranked lower than them would all but lock the Panthers into the field of 68.

Multiple wins, or even an ACC tournament championship, would only further help the Panthers by improving their seeding in the NCAA tournament.

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario for Pitt is to lose to both NC State and Florida State. This would move them to 19-12, and 10-10 in the ACC. From here, the Panthers would need to win the ACC tournament for the selection committee to ignore their multiple shortcomings. 

While the Panthers have shown they can beat anyone in the country, it’s difficult to win the ACC tournament with a lower seed. Only one of the recent five ACC tournament champions — Virginia Tech in 2022 — won the tournament from a seed lower than No. 4.

The difference maker for Pitt

This year’s Pitt team is different from last year’s team. While the Panthers don’t have Jamarius Burton on this year’s team, they have the best version of senior forward Blake Hinson. Hinson ranks top five in the ACC in points per game and three-pointers made per game. 

Along with Hinson, the first-year guard duo of Carlton “Bub” Carrington and Jaland Lowe are making strides as players. Carrington recently set his career high with 27 points against Boston College. Lowe has taken full advantage of his elevation to the Panthers’ starting lineup, averaging 13 points per game since his promotion.

The Panthers don’t have the experience of last year’s team, but their offense is explosive from three-point land and is effective on the perimeter defensively. The ball is in the Panthers’ court, and their path to the NCAA tournament is clear.