Penguins’ success hinges on their offseason bets cashing in

The opening day of free agency in the NHL is usually looked at as an indicator of a team’s plans for the upcoming season. If a team spends a lot of money, they likely have their eyes on the Stanley Cup. If they’re clutching their wallets, they probably don’t see themselves as a top contender. 

Penguins fans were pretty underwhelmed when July 1 came and went and the team was pretty quiet. While GMs across the league gave out over $1 billion on the opening day of free agency, the Penguins were shuffling through the bargain bin, hunting for low risk deals at minimum cost.

Pulled out of that pile were forwards Blake Lizotte and Anthony Beauvillier and defenseman Matt Grzelcyk, all coming off of down years. 

It wasn’t the exciting day that a fanbase eager to get back to the postseason was craving, but it was one that Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas had been setting the stage for even before free agency arrived. 

Dubas made his goal for the summer very clear at the NHL Draft when he acquired a second-round pick to take on a struggling forward Kevin Hayes and his contract. He was looking to do one thing — take calculated risks. 

Dubas ran wild with this idea this summer, taking almost every flier he could off of the NHL’s light post. In the trade market, he was looking to extract assets from cap-strapped teams and hoped the expensive contracts he received in the deals could pan out in Pittsburgh. 

In the free agent market, Dubas picked up players who are now in a position where they need to re-prove or rehab themselves, all of whom were rather cheap. Almost a third of the roster is now constructed of these “low risk, high reward” players who the team is banking on to return to glory. It’s not the worst idea for a team that can’t fully commit to a rebuild. 

But it’s a path that will require nearly all these bets to cash for this Penguins team to make a run. 

On the blue line, it will mean that Matt Grzelcyk will need a bounce-back season. Once hailed as an analytics darling, Grzelcyk fell on hard times last year in Boston. His defensive metrics cratered, as did his ability to chip in offensively. As a result, he fell out of favor with the Bruins’ coaching staff. Grzelcyk was a healthy scratch in ten of Boston’s 11 Stanley Cup Playoff games. 

In the Penguins’ forward group, a lot more will have to go right.  

Lizotte signed to a two-year deal to bring grit and physicality, but his scoring will need a boost. Lizotte is coming off a season in Los Angeles that saw him record seven goals and 15 points, his lowest totals in a full season. 

Beauvillier needs to return to form in a big way. Known as a Penguin-killer — especially in the postseason — from his days in Long Island, Beauvillier signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh after suiting up for three different teams last season, mustering 17 points in 60 total games. Once a reliable middle six forward, the Penguins are counting on Beauvillier to return to his Islanders form. 

Hayes will need to find a way to contribute in the bottom six for the Penguins. Like Beauvillier, Hayes is coming off his worst year in the NHL, with 13 goals and 29 points in St. Louis. 

He’s only a few years removed from seasons in Philly where he was well above half a point per game. But now on the north side of 30, the chance of a return to that kind of production is slim at best. Hayes will have to adjust his game to still provide value in a penalty kill and aggressive defender-type role.  

Cody Glass, who is set to see time as a winger this year, has to prove that two years ago was no fluke. The first-ever draft selection by the Vegas Golden Knights, Glass hasn’t had the career that was projected of him that night. Vegas gave up on Glass after four years, shipping him to Nashville. In his second year with the Predators organization, Glass finally had that breakout year in the NHL, potting 35 points in 72 games. The team rewarded him with a new contract worth $2.5 million annually. 

Fast forward a year and Glass’ slip in production made him a cap casualty when Nashville went on a spending spree. That’s where the Penguins came in, picking up a pair of draft picks along with Glass and his cap hit. 

Poetically, all these additions fit the model of what the Penguins have been the last few years — a group that has shown much higher ceilings but has not matched that level of success. Depth, particularly at forward, has proved as a deathly weakness for this team over the last few years. They need more than just bodies. They need effective players, and last year’s crop was the exact opposite. 

Perhaps the biggest chance Dubas took was making no changes in net. Tristan Jarry’s fate in Pittsburgh was called into question after Alex Nedeljkovic played the hero for the team down the stretch last season. Nedeljkovic became the man in net, playing in 12 of the team’s final 14 games as the Penguins did everything they could to earn a wild card spot. 

Nedeljkovic’s performance clouded Jarry’s standing as the team’s starter. When Dubas re-signed Nedeljkovic in June, it looked like Dubas had made his decision, opening the door for a Jarry trade. Jarry’s contract is pricey, but there were more than enough goalie-needy teams out there for a deal. 

It’s now October. Jarry is still here and is still the assumed starter. Dubas is making the same bet he did last year and the one that his predecessor Ron Hextall did before him, that Jarry is the man for the job. That bet is going to get tested rather early, as Nedeljkovic’s preseason injury will put Jarry in the spotlight to open the year. 

Jarry, like every acquisition this summer, was a calculated risk by Dubas, who is trying his best to prepare for the future and still roster a group that the aging core deserves.