Opinion | Democrats should be concerned with shifts in blue strongholds

Surrounded by the progressive atmosphere on many college campuses, I was confident that Kamala Harris would secure the presidency, especially in states that have reliably voted blue for decades. Perhaps I was too optimistic, bolstered by Harris’ strong debate performances, savvy social media campaigning and excitement in younger audiences to Joe Biden. I believed she would decisively defeat Trump. 

While I am not the biggest Harris fan, I figured many people would shift to the left considering who she was running against. Although we can never be certain swing states will pull through, I felt strongly in my faith that Harris would outperform Trump by an impressively large margin in blue states.

So assured I was of my home state of New Jersey’s blue stronghold that I changed my registration to vote in Pennsylvania, thinking my vote would carry more weight in a swing state. However, as we watched Trump not only sweep all seven swing states but also make significant gains in historically blue states, it became clear that the political landscape is shifting. This unexpected turn of events has prompted many — myself included — to question whether states like New Jersey or New York can continue to be considered reliable strongholds for the Democratic Party.

Recent election results in such states have raised eyebrows nationwide, suggesting a deeper shift in voter sentiment rooted in overlooked local issues, demographic changes and evolving political attitudes. Why did so many voters abandon the Democratic Party, and what does this say about the shifting priorities in these communities?

One significant factor appears to be economic strain. Rising costs of living — especially for housing, food and transportation — are squeezing households across the nation, and the pressure is particularly intense in cities and states known for their high expenses. New Jersey and New York, with their dense populations and urban pressures, are acutely feeling these cost increases. 

It’s worth noting that many of the most expensive states to live in — New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland and California — are historically blue. This economic pressure, coupled with high-profile celebrity endorsements for Harris, has contributed to a perception that the Democratic Party is aligned with elites. 

For many working and middle-class voters, there is a feeling of being looked down upon if they support Trump. Housing prices, food costs and inflation have left many families struggling to maintain their standard of living. For middle-class and younger voters, ongoing economic pressures make promises of long-term reforms and progressive initiatives feel distant from their daily needs. Trump’s campaign may have resonated with this sentiment by focusing on job creation, economic stability and relief from rising costs.

Public safety and crime have also become growing concerns for voters in urban and suburban areas. Many neighborhoods, especially in large cities, have seen crime rates rise — whether in reality or perception — particularly since the pandemic. 

Democrats did not emphasize issues of crime as effectively as they should have to resonate with voters, causing them to shift right. This shift is evident in the noticeable rightward movement in all five boroughs of New York City, as well as in traditionally blue cities like Chicago, Boston and Philadelphia. If Democrats want to secure these voters, they must offer clear and effective solutions to public safety concerns.

Now onto a topic heavily stressed under the Trump administration — immigration. In cities like New York and Los Angeles, increased immigration has placed pressure on public services, including housing, healthcare and education. Although Democrats are known to champion immigration, they failed to address concerns of voters adequately as a result of such rapid demographic changes. 

When voters are expressing worries about immigration, they might find themselves shifting right if the party they were once loyal to is no longer addressing their needs. Trump’s stance on stricter immigration policies likely resonated with some of these concerns, giving him a foothold in areas where he might have previously struggled to gain support. Additionally, Hispanic and Black voters, once reliable Democratic supporters, are becoming less predictable with recent shifts right. Economic concerns and shifting values are leading some within these communities to reconsider their allegiance to the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party now faces a critical choice in reframing its campaign agendas for the 2028 presidential election. If Democrats do not adapt to these shifting priorities, we could be witnessing the beginning of a significant political realignment, with states like New Jersey potentially becoming battlegrounds in future elections. 

The party must address immediate economic concerns, public safety issues and the nuanced perspectives within diverse communities, as opposed to placing importance on celebrity endorsements or perpetuating an elitism narrative. Instead, they should emphasize local leaders and community-driven initiatives, showcasing grassroots successes that reflect a genuine commitment to the needs of everyday Americans. 

While the Democratic Party effectively addressed the middle class, we must see more recognition of the working class, especially voters like Black and Hispanic workers who are part of this demographic.

Democrats must begin by focusing on public safety and crime in cities, taking cues from mayors like Karen Bass of Los Angeles, who has effectively combined progressive ideals with a pragmatic approach to tackling homelessness and crime. A clear, balanced message that prioritizes both safety and equity is key to rebuilding trust with urban and suburban communities.

Only by realigning their focus to the needs of everyday Americans can the Democrats hope to regain lost ground and prevent further erosion of blue strongholds.

Srinidhi Gopalan is a third year neuroscience major with a minor in economics. She is from New Jersey and enjoys writing about anything cultural or political. Her email is always open for different opinions at srg101@pitt.edu.