Column | Predicting March Madness’ Cinderellas

Last night, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee released the field of 68 teams that will compete over the next three weeks, culminating in the national championship in San Antonio on April 7. 

There will be plenty of discussion, deliberation and debate about the teams who will work their way through the bracket to the Final Four. But the initial rush of March begins with first-round upsets. Here’s a look at some candidates to look for when filling out your bracket. 

Second Weekend candidates

Drake – No. 11 seed, West

After a convincing victory in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship over rival Bradley, Drake became the only school to win three consecutive MCV tournaments besides Southern Illinois. 

But this season’s team differs greatly from the previous two. After losing head coach Darian DeVries to West Virginia, the program hired Division II Northwest Missouri State’s Ben McCollum. McCollum brought four of his players with him to Des Moines, including junior guard Bennett Stirtz, the MVC Player of the Year. The Bulldog offense revolves around Stirtz, who is capable as a scorer and distributor.

Despite ranking No. 358 in weighted Division I experience per KenPom, the Bulldogs achieved a 28-3 record against DI competition. The Bulldogs grind down their opposition with the slowest offense in the country and a stifling defense that ranks No. 46 on KenPom. 

In their non-conference slate, they picked up three wins against Power Five opposition, beating Miami (FL), Vanderbilt and Kansas State. Look for the Bulldogs to test six-seed Missouri and potentially take down a No. 3 seed in Texas Tech to advance to the Sweet 16. 

UC San Diego – No. 12 seed, South

After locking down the Big West’s automatic bid, UC San Diego is heading into March Madness with Division I’s longest active win streak, dating back to January 23. 

Due to NCAA rules concerning schools moving up a division, this season is the first the Tritons are eligible for the NCAA Tournament. For the second consecutive season, UCSD has won 20 games. This season, the Tritons eclipsed 30 wins with their run in the Big West Tournament.

The Tritons are well-balanced, ranking in KenPom’s top 60 for offensive and defensive efficiency. They combine their ability to generate turnovers on defense and to avoid them on offense to generate extra possessions. 

UCSD’s offense relies heavily on the 3-point line, taking 49.6% of their shots from beyond the arc, which accounts for 40% of their points. UCSD also moves the ball effectively, generating an assist on made baskets at the 57th-highest rate in the country. 

On defense, the Tritons force turnovers on 23.2% of possessions and are effective defensive rebounders, preventing their opponents from creating extra shot opportunities. UCSD faces off against five-seed Michigan. If they can pull off the upset, the Tritons will face the winner of Texas A&M and Yale.

Giant slayers

Yale – No. 13 seed, South

For the fifth time since the 2015-16 season and second consecutive season, Yale has made the NCAA Tournament and is a prime candidate to make it to the second round for the third time in the same span. 

The Bulldogs hold a win against fellow 13-seed Akron, beating the Zips in a 16-point, neutral-site win back in December. In a November matchup at Purdue, Yale displayed its ability to hang with high-major competition, despite the loss. 

Despite their top-10 three-point shooting percentage, the Bulldogs only attempt them on 32% of their field goal attempts. This provides an interesting matchup against No. 4 seed Texas A&M, who allows the 12th highest rate of 3-point attempts. 

Yale also boasts a proven rebounding ability that could help it keep its first-round matchup close. With fellow Cinderella candidate UCSD only a single game away, Yale is another strong candidate to make it to the second weekend of March Madness. 

Lipscomb – 14 seed, South

For the second time in the school’s Division I history, Lipscomb is headed to the NCAA Tournament. Its first appearance came in 2018 when it drew No. 2 seed North Carolina in the first round and lost. 

The Bison are on a run of success akin to the one that characterized their first appearance. Lipscomb achieved its third straight 20-win season, only the second time the Bison have reached that feat since joining Division I. The first run spanned from the 2016-17 season to the 2018-19 season. 

The Bison are sharpshooters, ranking in the top 50 in the nation in three-point, two-point and free-throw shooting percentages. The Bisons’ depth of seasoned veterans — ranking No. 33 in the country in weighted DI experience — makes them a strong defensive rebounding team and prevents them from turning over the ball on offense. 

Lipscomb’s first-round matchup, Iowa State, is also reported to not have star player Keshon Gilbert, opening the door for a potential upset of the No. 3 seed. 

Wild Card

Bryant – No. 15 seed, South

With a special blend of size and experience for a team from the mid-major level, coupled with the seventh-fastest pace of play in the country, Bryant has an opportunity to take advantage of an unsuspecting No. 2 seed in Michigan State. In three of the last four years, a 15 seed has taken down a two seed, so keep an eye out for the Bulldogs.