Herron: U.S. Chicken Littles

George Will wrote, “Economic hypochondria, a derangement associated with affluence, is a… George Will wrote, “Economic hypochondria, a derangement associated with affluence, is a byproduct of the welfare state.”

Economic hypochondria, when inflated by election rhetoric and invigorated by sensationalism will turn citizens into Chicken Littles shouting, “The sky is falling!”

Cries from all directions declare that the United States is a nation — or, more generously, an empire — in decline.

Today, Chicken Little is everywhere. Charles A. Kupchan wrote “The End of the American Era.” Peggy Noonan, speechwriter for former President Ronald Reagan, believes that “in some deep fundamental way, things have broken down and can’t be fixed.”

Russian analyst Igor Panarin said the U.S. economy “is already collapsing,” and that “America will no longer be the world’s financial regulator.” Historian Paul Kennedy lamented, “The global tectonic power shifts, toward Asia and away from the West, seem hard to reverse.” Finally, in his inaugural address, President Barack Obama pointed to “nagging fear” that the United States’ “decline is inevitable.”

These prattling pessimists cite a number of reasons for the nation’s decline: economic turmoil, military overstretch and cultural division.

The facts, however, point to a very different story.

In a recent article in Foreign Affairs, Josef Joffe points to a U.S. economy “worth $14.3 trillion, three times as much as the world’s second-biggest economy.”

He also said that despite the strength of Japan, China, France and Germany, “never before in modern history have the gaps between great powers been so wide.” Meanwhile, China’s economy is “extremely dependent on exports — they amount to around two-fifths of China’s GDP — and hence vulnerable to global economic downturns.”

Militarily, the United States has an annual defense budget of around $600 billion. That number is equal to 41 percent of the world’s share. The next nine countries spent $476 billion combined. Even after adding the 27 European Union states’ combined budget of $507 billion to that sum, the U.S. retains military superiority.

In total amount of armed forces, the United States ranks second, behind China, with 3,385,400 active and reserve forces.

Although China’s troops number 7,024,000, their ability to swiftly and effectively transport military power is severely outmatched by the U.S. Navy. Earlier this year, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote that the Navy’s “battle fleet is still larger than the next 13 navies combined — and 11 of those 13 navies are U.S. allies or partners.”

Furthermore, the Navy currently operates twice as many aircraft carriers than the all other countries combined. China, meanwhile, will not have any functioning aircraft carriers until 2015.

Even with the numbers, however, analysts must examine U.S. power not in absolute terms, but in terms relative to other countries.

Throughout the past century, the United States has stepped up when other nations would not or could not.

For the past two decades — essentially since the end of the Cold War — the United States has led the world in working to alleviate crises and unify nations around collective objectives. Bosnia, the Mexican currency crisis, the Oslo Accords and the coalitions developed for military action in Afghanistan and Iraq all illustrate the primacy of the United States.

When Americans voted on Nov. 4, 2008, the world watched intently. No other country on the planet could draw such concern over the results of one election. The rest of the world understands that what happens to the United States might affect them.

The United States is the most liberal democracy in world history. Americans embraced an ideology that triumphs over all others because it is the greatest cultivator of human development and progress.

As a result, the United States is a remarkably resilient country leading a globalized world community. The United States has countless allies dependent on its prosperity and an even higher number of countries that would shudder at the thought of China or Russia as the world’s only superpower.

“Open all the borders on Earth,” Thomas Friedman wrote, “and see what happens. In about half a day, the entire world would be a ghost town, and the United States would look like one giant line to see ‘The Producers.’”

This remains true today. It’s hard to imagine that tomorrow would be any different.

E-mail Mason at mph20@pitt.edu.