Burgos: Predicting the ALCS and NLCS

I know this is Pittsburgh, so around this time of year baseball isn’t exactly in the forefront… I know this is Pittsburgh, so around this time of year baseball isn’t exactly in the forefront of sports fan’s minds. But two days ago — Tuesday, Oct. 13 — was the 69th anniversary of what many consider the greatest home run of all time: Bill Mazeroski’s series-winning, walk-off blast in Game Seven of the World Series against the vaunted New York Yankees at Forbes Field.

Every year on Oct. 13, a crowd of faithful Pirate fans congregate at the corner of Schenley and Roberto Clemente drives on Pitt’s campus, where parts of Forbes Field’s wall still stands to commemorate the famous shot.

So in case you thought Pittsburgh was just a football and hockey town, slow your roll just a little. There is a community in Pittsburgh that loves baseball in October, and if the current Pirates weren’t the worst team in baseball over the past 15 years, the city just might divert its sport attention for a minute to America’s favorite past time.

Which brings us to teams that are still actually playing baseball. In the American League, it’s those Yanks again and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim — of the Disney Corp. of “The How to Expand a TV Market for Revenue” nation. In the National League, the Phillies and Dodgers are playing for a NLCS crown for the second year in a row.

Major League Baseball must be salivating. All four of the participating teams come from top 10 TV markets. New York at No. 1, Los Angeles (which counts for both the Angels and Dodgers) is No. 2, and Philly is No. 8. Sure, Boston vs. New York would have been nice. Perhaps the Cubs playing deep into fall would have been good for business, too. But like Babe, this will do.

And with play set to start today on the West Coast with the Dodgers and Phillies, here are the most essential keys to both series.

In the AL, the Yankees will most likely go with the three-man starting rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte.

The Bombers had gaudy offensive numbers during the regular season, leading the majors in runs, homers, slugging percentage, hits and RBIs. But in the playoffs, games get tighter, and it’s all about pitching. New York was inning-conscious in the regular season and limited Sabathia to 230 innings of work with the playoffs in mind. Now it’s his time to shine.

The Angels, on the other hand, are 35-23 against the Yanks since 2004. They eliminated them from the playoffs in 2002 and 2005. Those figures probably mean nothing now, but in baseball, the role of the coach is geared toward managing psyches more so than on-field logistics. Manager Mike Scioscia has a ring with the Angels already and can out-manage newbie Joe Girardi. He needs to condition this team to believe that they can oust New York from the postseason for a third time.

Prediction: Yankees in 6.

In the NL, the Dodgers and Phillies went head-to-head seven times in the regular season, and Los Angeles won four of those games. These two teams, though, are about as evenly matched as they come. But in order for the Dodgers to avoid their second consecutive NLCS loss to Philadelphia, they’ll need to protect their home-field advantage. This year the Phillies were a major league best, 48-33, on the road. In the divisional series against the Rockies, the Phils won both games at Coors Field.

For the defending World Series champions, it comes down to the performance of two players: Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels. Shocker, I know, that I didn’t mention Brad Lidge. But Rollins is the engine that makes the Phillies go. When he’s hitting, they are arguably the best offensive unit in baseball, and he’s the team’s emotional leader.

Hamels had a ridiculously mediocre year, going 10-11 after a brilliant postseason last year. But this season against the Dodgers, Hamels tossed 16 innings and gave up only one run. Since staff ace Cliff Lee pitched Monday, he won’t be available to start game one of the championship series. That leaves Hamels. If he can regain his 2008 form, the Phillies will be looking at a repeat trip to the Fall Classic.

Prediction: Phillies in 7.