Power struggle likely in N. Korea

As we’ve seen with past foreign policy misadventures, the only thing worse than a corrupt,… As we’ve seen with past foreign policy misadventures, the only thing worse than a corrupt, backward leader is an even worse corrupt, backward leader taking power. However discontenting the image of Kim Jong-Il being armed with nuclear and biological weapons, it is more disturbing right now to consider what a political takeover might lead to in the unstable region. With the health of Kim in question and no solid plans in place to name his successor, the United States and its South Korean ally stand on edge about the future. South Korean leaders have been quietly voicing concerns over the potential power struggle that might be coming. Kim failed to show up for a parade marking six decades of power for the ruling political party. Rumors buzzed on the Internet, but nothing was confirmed. North Korean officials have rebuked any assertion that Kim is seriously ill, but his complete absence from the public spotlight during the past few weeks has failed to convince anyone of this. With each passing day, uneasy media speculation seems to grow. I’ve read concerned reports talking about nuclear weapons getting into the wrong hands and what their intentions with those weapons might be. Whoa, one step at a time now. With no predetermined successor or way to go about finding one, an agricultural civilian population and one of the largest armies in the world, the prospect of upheaval on the Korean peninsula is on a lot of people’s minds ‘mdash; and rightly so. But what they seem to be forgetting is that these sort of things happen every once in a while. Of course there will be a power struggle if Kim leaves a power void. That’s not reason to believe there is an impending nuclear disaster. The United States has voiced its concern of a transitional North Korea in the past and worked with the South to develop an outline of CONPLAN 5029 ‘mdash; a strategy of basic contingencies put in place to deal with possible North Korean aggression or excessive immigration. Despite these efforts, the plan in place is continually criticized as weak and vague. South Korea rejected a U.S. offer to implement military measure to the plan a few years ago, wisely choosing to maintain its sovereignty integrity, yet the criticism remains that it leaves it unprepared for a North Korean meltdown. Many South Koreans are concerned about the idea of integration between the North and South. Right now the heavily guarded demilitarized zone at the 38th parallel separates the two nations. Although the reunification of Korea has long been a goal of both the Korean and international community, the divide in prosperity has led many in the South to worry about the effects of a potential flood of immigrants from the notoriously poor North. With a per capita GDP of less than $2,000 ‘mdash; vs. the South’s $25,000 GDP figure ‘mdash; experts predict the South’s strong economy would be devastated by such an influx. But what reason do we have to believe that North Korea will make a serious attempt to cross the DMZ under a new regime? While it’s always better to err on the side of caution in regards to defense, it mostly seems like empty speculation. Keep in mind there are bigger players involved here, none of whom are eager to see any kind of serious territorial incursion. The United States and South Korea will likely look toward China to take control in securing a peaceful transition when the time comes. With respect to the China-North Korea relationship, both would like to maintain the close ties they’ve developed. And while some might overstate the influence of China on North Korean politics, a new government in North Korea will not be able to survive on its own without Chinese assistance. Last year, the North imported the majority of its food and 90 percent of its energy supplies from China. Of course, right there is reason why China does not want to lose that market. The North is also a tourist destination for middle-class Chinese, who willingly submit to security measures like leaving passports and cell phones at the border in order to enjoy the few North Korea offers. Most importantly though, from the Chinese perspective, is maintaining the strong capital investment that is coming in from South Korea. Recently, South Korea’s investment in China overtook that of Japan’s ‘mdash; despite a Japanese economy that is four times larger. The growth China has been enjoying cannot afford a major Korean disruption, and I don’t expect they’ll allow one to happen. When the time comes, look for China to take a responsible role in the handling of its neighbor, taking pressure off an overburdened U.S. government. For North Korea, Kim’s departure might not be a pretty transition, but it won’t spell doom. You can reach Brandon at bkp3@pitt.edu.