Russia has strategy for Georgia

When Russia escalated the fighting between the central Georgian government and Russian loyalists… When Russia escalated the fighting between the central Georgian government and Russian loyalists in South Ossetia in early August, no one was surprised. Soldiers, politicians and journalists were all expecting an explosion of violence in the weeks leading up to it. Even the 2001 video game Ghost Recon correctly predicted the timing, location and motives of the conflict when it was made seven years ago. No one was surprised, and yet no one was in a position to do anything about the inexcusable Russian invasion that followed. It’s difficult finding much support for the Russians at home or abroad, and NATO and most of the European Union have condemned the invasion. Both of the presidential candidates immediately called for Russia’s departure from the contested regions, and President George W. Bush called the action ‘unacceptable.’ It may be unacceptable, but the United States wasn’t postured to intervene in any way, and Russia chose to move when it did for a reason. It would be almost impossible to justify, militarily or morally, any kind of action on our part over such a contained conflict. With our troops struggling to deal with the same Afghanistan that repelled Russian forces two decades ago and our own mounting debt from these ventures, Medvedev knew better than to expect an immediate response. And it looks like his gamble has paid off ‘mdash; mostly. A successful campaign has proved that Russia is still the dominant military power of Asia, and despite Georgia’s overconfidence in the days leading up to the fighting, it is still a few weight classes above all the breakaway Soviet states in terms of military power. Russia’s timing was right on, but the United States played a daft hand last week by announcing the successful results of back-and-forth 18-month negotiations to place interceptor missiles in Poland designed to protect against rogue states like Iran and North Korea. Plans for the shield involve placing Patriot missiles ‘mdash; the type designed to intercept short-range missiles and destroy them before reaching a target ‘mdash; just 180 kilometers away from western Russia. The issue has long been a contentious one between Washington and Moscow, but now the United States can use Russia’s own aggressive behavior to justify the defensive missile shield’s presence in central Europe. Russian objection to the missile shield’s placement dates back to Putin’s presidency, and it was one of the few low points in an otherwise solid relationship with the Bush administration. Medvedev has not wasted a moment in declaring absolute opposition to it, claiming the shield is there not to protect against a rogue missile strike, but to spread U.S. military influence a little too close to Russian soil. One of Russia’s leading generals, Anatoly Nagovitsyn, warned that Poland is ‘exposing itself to a strike ‘mdash; 100 percent’ by allowing the system on its land. Medvedev scaled back the directness of his general’s threats against Poland in the past few days, but it hasn’t eased the worries of concerned Poles. On top of the fear that Russia could carry out a strike against Poland is the possibility that the interceptor missiles simply won’t perform as anticipated. ‘It’s not something Europe can rely on,’ said Philip Coyle, a senior adviser at the Center for Defense Information in Washington. ‘It is not dependable … [the system] is a scarecrow.’ Coyle’s criticisms are not unreasonable ‘mdash; the missile system isn’t perfect and isn’t designed to intercept all types of missiles. But rather than wait until Russia further develops a fledgling empire, the United States and Poland were wise to agree on a deal when the world is wagging its finger at the missile system’s biggest opponent. The biggest concern for the West now is what Russia’s response will be. It could further antagonize Georgia or Poland, but if the Russians really want to call America’s bluff on the effectiveness of the missile system, they might accelerate their sales of advanced weapons technology to Iran and let the missile shield deal with the consequences it is designed to deal with. We’ll soon discover if a resurgent Russia is ready to take another aggressive step and move against NATO. It’s unlikely anything drastic will happen soon, but don’t expect the Kremlin to roll over and play dead ‘mdash; Medvedev has worked too hard to demonstrate his commitment in restoring Russia’s national pride. Brandon will be doing Jeff Goldblum impersonations at bkp3@pitt.edu.