Fantasy football lesson: drafting the ultimate team

At last, the fantasy football preseason is over. I can only hope that no ACLs were lost in the… At last, the fantasy football preseason is over. I can only hope that no ACLs were lost in the season’s preparation. Happy drafting everyone, and here are a few tips and sleepers to aid your draft. 1. Sharing is for your case of IC Light, not your fantasy running back’s carries. Only one running back per team will put up the type of numbers that your fantasy team needs. Too many teams have transitioned into multiple running back systems, and there are very few feature running backs. It’s essential to get the few there are. So do your best Mike Ditka impersonation and trade your draft number if you have to in order to snag two of the top-12 running backs. Face it, fantasy owners: We’re not going to see the same type of running back production as we have become accustomed to in past years. Split backfields have become a disease that has no vaccine to fantasy owners. In 10-team leagues, everyone will have the opportunity to get one overly productive back, but only a lucky few will land two ball-hawk backs. Cross your fingers and hope you’re picking behind the guy who thinks it’s a good idea to draft Tom Brady in the first round (bad idea), or hope the stars are aligned and you succeed the owner who’s tickled by the idea of drafting two top-five wide receivers with his first two picks. 2. Develop a value system. Burying your nose in online or fantasy magazine rankings can be helpful only if you don’t orchestrate your draft according to such fodder. For starters, said rankings are compiled based on a certain scoring system, but it’s unlikely that it’s the exact same as your league’s system. Develop your own rankings. Your original rankings should consider, above all, the depth at every position. Unlike the NFL draft, it’s not necessarily sensible to take the best player on the board. Break down the value of each player on a positional basis, and weigh it against the number of players you start one position compared to others. 3. Don’t draft a quarterback early unless his value is too good to pass up. This goes along with the other mentioned rankings. So basically, don’t draft Tom Brady in the first round. My reasons are multiple. You only start one quarterback, while the NFL starts 32. You do the math. Any of the top-10 quarterbacks has the potential to put up solid fantasy numbers. In comparison to running backs, it’s a lot easier to find a quarterback to contribute solid numbers. In effect, drafting a quarterback instead of a skill player early puts your fantasy team at a huge disadvantage. I’m shocked at the number of people who take Brady or Peyton Manning in the first round. Yeah, Brady had 454 points last year. But Derek Anderson had 313. 4. No matter what, it’s not a good idea to be the first to draft a team defense or kicker. In fact, be the last. Drafting a kicker is like playing pin the tail on the donkey. Team defense/special teams are equally as conditional. You may be able to predict which team has the most playmakers, but don’t kid yourself. You’re not a defensive coordinator, and the average owner isn’t adept at recognizing tendencies. How could the Ravens possibly have the 29th-rated fantasy defense last year after having the No. 1-rated unit in 2006? I don’t know, do you? Last year the difference between the best fantasy defense (San Diego) and the 10th best (Houston) was only 2.7 points per game. 5. Having too many players in one offense can be detrimental. In head-to-head leagues it’s not about the overall points guys get. Especially in the latter stages of the year, having multiple players in one offense can torch your playoff transcript. Winning in the playoffs is about tremendous performances. To dodge bullets in the playoffs, you need to have multiple huge performances, and, while it can happen, the odds of a running back and a receiver in the same offense busting out is slim. Also, if you have multiple players from one team and that team has a playoff spot locked up, you might be relegated to starting Kyle Orton in your championship game. Draft Sleepers Jericcho Cotchery: WR, NYJ – Forget for a moment that No. 4 is manning the ship for the Jets. Cotchery’s numbers have improved annually. He’s caught 82 balls each of the last two seasons. The only problem? Last year Cotchery only caught two touchdowns. Enter Mr. Favre. Cotchery is primed for a huge year, especially considering you can probably grab him in the sixth or seventh rounds of your draft. Anthony Gonzalez: WR, IND – Remember when Brandon Stokley had 68 receptions, 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns for the Colts in 2004? It’s not so far-fetched to think Gonzalez could post comparable numbers. In 13 games last year as a rookie, Gonzalez had 37 receptions for 576 yards and’ three touchdowns. If Peyton Manning rebounds from his knee surgery and Marvin Harrison doesn’t rebound, Gonzalez will have monster value. Jerious Norwood: RB, ATL – With Norwood it’s not a question of whether he can be productive (he runs a 4.33 40-yard dash), but whether he’ll get the touches. The Falcons acquired Michael Turner in the offseason to be their starting running back, but Turner has never shouldered a full workload in the NFL. Norwood averaged six yards per carry last year. Ted Ginn Jr.: WR, MIA – I know Chad Pennington is calling the signals for the Dolphins, but it looks like Ginn will be Miami’s default No. 1 receiver. With Pennington at the helm in 2006, Laveranues Coles caught 91 balls. Ginn is electric, there’s no doubt about that. And if he becomes the focal point of Miami’s passing attack, he could be valuable. Think about it. When else can you recall any team’s No. 1 receiver slipping to the 12th round? If Ginn does, grab him. Predictions I’m really going to go out on a limb here. I think LaDanian Tomlinson is going to have a huge year. What else is new? While LT is still the consensus No. 1 fantasy choice, I can’t help but get the feeling his projections are too low. The whole left side of San Diego’s offensive line went to the Pro Bowl last year, as did Tomlinson. And now LT owners don’t have to worry about Michael Turner spelling Tomlinson for whole series at a time. Most projections have LT around 15 rushing touchdowns. I’m thinking more like 20-25. Adrian Peterson is a dangerous choice. He’s going to put up numbers, but I don’t know about top-two pick numbers. I really can’t figure out why anybody would consider taking Peterson ahead of the likes of Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai or Steven Jackson. I’m sure two 200-yard games, including an NFL record 296-yard game, will have something to do with it. Peterson is an amazing talent, the kind who could make me eat my words, but he’s got a history of wearing down. After setting the record, in his last six games of the year Peterson averaged just 51 yards and scored four touchdowns, including a putrid 14 carry, three-yard performance against a San Francisco defense that allowed 118.5 rushing yards per game last year. I’m sure his sprained MCL had something to do with his decline in production, but then again, Peterson has been hampered with injuries throughout his football career. He’s a red flag.