the news in brief

(MCT) CARACAS, Venezuela-For the better part of a decade, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has… (MCT) CARACAS, Venezuela-For the better part of a decade, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has spent billions of dollars of his country’s oil revenue to challenge U.S. interests, build influence around the world and fund a self-styled socialist revolution at home.

Yet as Chavez moves from one international crisis to another-most recently a near military confrontation with neighboring Colombia, an important U.S. ally-many wonder how long his oil-funded wild ride will last.

Not long, analysts in Venezuela and abroad said, if production continues to decline at the country’s state-run energy company, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., known by its Spanish initials PDVSA.

The state oil company is responsible for 80 percent of the exports from this country of 26 million people, but analysts think that PDVSA is falling apart.

PDVSA’s problems are America’s problems, since lost output in any oil-producing nation results in tighter supplies and higher global prices. Venezuela ranges from the third to the fourth biggest supplier of oil to the U.S. market.

PDVSA’s woes include falling output, insufficient investment in current and future production, a work force bloated by patronage and a shortage of oil field equipment and skilled personnel with know-how.

Most independent experts use the International Energy Agency’s figures, which indicate that production at PDVSA has dropped by 800,000 barrels per day since 1997. And despite the current high oil prices, PDVSA appears to be running out of cash.

Falling production means that Chavez eventually will have to cut back on popular social programs at home and on billions of dollars in charity to foreign governments.

Chavez may have even less room to maneuver if U.S. officials make good on threats to declare Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism because of alleged links to the guerrilla group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

That designation would cut off most commercial ties between the United States and Venezuela, including oil. Venezuela sells more than half of its oil to the United States, which is the only major buyer that has the capacity to easily refine Venezuela’s heavy crude oil. – Jack Chang and Kevin G. Hall, McClatchy Newspapers

(MCT) AGUA PRIETA, Mexico-Since the federal government brought in the National Guard to help tighten controls along the Mexican border two years ago, reports show fewer people are crossing. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says seizures of immigrants dropped 20 percent at the border between 2006 and 2007, from 1,072,000 people to 858,000 last year.

Those immigrants still determined to cross are increasingly vulnerable. Many of the traditional coyotes who would shepherd immigrants all the way to their destination will no longer risk a crossing, and they’ve been replaced by a more transient, more desperate breed.

In El Paso, Texas, 260 miles east of Agua Prieta, Border Patrol agent Joe Romero said fly-by-night smugglers who prey on naive immigrants are flourishing.

In the past, he said, smuggling networks were more village-based, and coyotes were less likely to abuse immigrants because they had reputations to maintain.

“The original guides weren’t even in this for the money,” Romero said. “They were doing it for their neighbors.”

Last year, even with fewer people trying to cross the border, just as many immigrants died from exposure, drownings, accidents or killings. Mexican media reported government tallies showing that about 450 Mexicans died on the border last year, compared with 425 in 2006 and 443 in 2005.

Immigrants who make it over the border between Agua Prieta and Douglas often end up in Phoenix, where they are hidden in safe houses until transported to their destinations, police said.

Officers say the safe houses are providing new revenue for smugglers. Phoenix police rescued more than 550 victims last year from these drop spots. Smugglers had been holding them hostage until family members paid extra for their release.

“Some of what we’re seeing is the unintended consequence of tightening the border,” said Alfonso Pena, special agent in charge of investigations with Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Phoenix. – Susan Ferriss, McClatchy Newspapers

(MCT) THINLEYGANG, Bhutan-In this isolated Himalayan kingdom of dragon and demon fables, where increases in Gross National Happiness are the measure of progress, it is fair to say no one has been yearning for democracy-except the king.

A little over a year ago, King Jigme Singye Wangchuck announced he was abdicating his throne and decreed that his remote Buddhist kingdom should become a constitutional democracy. Putting power in the people’s hands, he said, was a sign of his confidence in them, and it would give the tiny mountain nation sandwiched between India and China long-term stability and a stronger position in a modern, globalizing world. Bhutan’s fate, he said, should not be left in the hands of one man chosen by birth rather than merit.

Bhutan’s people did not cheer.

“It was a bit of a shock,” said Lynpo Sonam Tobgye, the chief justice of Bhutan’s supreme court and the reluctant lead author of the country’s new constitution. In a region of South Asia where democracy has often brought as much strife as peace and progress, “politics is not much venerated,” he said.

Today, they will cast the first votes of their lives for the country’s first democratically elected parliament, completing Bhutan’s transition from hereditary monarchy to democratic constitutional monarchy. Under Bhutan’s new system, the king’s son will take over as head of state, but he will now share power with an elected legislature with the right to remove him from office.

Bhutan is not a place looking for change. Under the king, who launched the nation’s push for Gross National Happiness-a way of measuring progress in terms of sustainable development and social contentment instead of income-the country has managed to institute nearly universal free health care and education.

“Elections are about conflict, and resolving conflict peacefully. Here you don’t get the sense there is a political conflict to resolve,” said Holly Ruthrauff, who is helping staff a European election observer mission in Bhutan.

In recent weeks, campaigners seem finally to have gotten comfortable with the confrontational nature of politics. The national election commission has been flooded with complaints of vote-buying, often simply because a cup of tea changed hands.

Candidates are openly trading charges of carpetbagging and making false promises. Debates are getting lively. – Laurie Goering, Chicago Tribune