Profs analyze Super Tuesday

As the hangover from Mardi Gras began to wear off for most Americans Wednesday morning, the… As the hangover from Mardi Gras began to wear off for most Americans Wednesday morning, the hangover from Super Tuesday was just beginning.

With 24 state electorates casting votes for candidates from both parties, Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continued to be locked in a heated battle, while Republican favorite John McCain appeared to increase his lead against his nearest competitors.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee surprised many by posting wins in five states, relying on his conservative policies to solidify his support in the South.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won seven states, although few of his victories were unexpected and many of the states did not provide him with a significant number of delegates necessary for the party nomination.

Pitt political science professor Jennifer Nicoll Victor said, “It seems Huckabee, somewhat ironically, has more staying power than Romney because Huckabee did much better on Super Tuesday than people expected, so he’ll pick up some more campaign donations and momentum because of that.”

Despite the apparent victory for McCain, who won important states such as California, Illinois and New York, not all conservative voters are excited about his success in the primaries.

Pitt political science professor David Barker said in an e-mail, “The problem all along is that there is no ideal conservative candidate running among the Republican field.”

In Barker’s view there is a real possibility of a third-party challenge to the eventual Republican nominee from the conservative wing of the Republican Party.

“There is a good chance that some self-proclaimed conservative runs as an independent or third-party candidate,” he said.

Another scenario could be a split in the Republican Party “at least in the sense that a lot of self-proclaimed conservatives could choose to stay home in November,” he said.

Victor echoed that sentiment, saying, “The right wing is not at all enamored with McCain. So McCain is winning with an unusual strategy. Typically, you win a primary contest by appealing to the party base. McCain has in fact alienated the party base and appealed to the moderates and independents. He’s doing so successfully. The biggest danger for Republicans is that the base will be so alienated that they will stay home (rather than vote) in the general election. McCain likely is the most viable general-election candidate, and that is part of why he’s doing well.”

For the Democrats, the equation is simpler, with little room left for an outside challenger to play the role of spoiler in the Democratic nomination.

In contrast to the Republicans, Barker believes that either Clinton or Obama will be successful in uniting the Democratic Party. Despite fervent support for both candidates, “Seventy-two percent of Dems say they would be satisfied if either Clinton or Obama is the nominee,” he said.

On Tuesday, Clinton won the majority of delegates from populous states such as Arizona, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York, while Obama won other important states such as Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

Hillary Clinton won eight states and Barack Obama won 13, according to the Washington Post, and she earned about 25 more delegates.

Victor said that because “Clinton won more delegates and Obama won more states, they each have momentum from different segments of the population.”

To win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must win 2,025 delegates. To win the Republican nomination, a candidate must receive 1,191. McCain has already won more than half of the delegates needed to secure the nomination.

Geographically, Obama solidified his support in the South and the Midwest, and Clinton won many states along the East Coast.

According to Victor, “Clinton is getting support from women, Latinos and city voters. She wins the big population centers. Obama is doing well with blacks, white males and suburban and rural voters. If you look at the states that Obama won last night, you’ll see they are mostly ‘red’ states. Each of them will continue to pursue these demographics.”

Not surprisingly, all candidates won their respective home states.

Barker expects Obama’s campaign to increase his momentum in the weeks and months ahead. “Everything favors Obama right now. The primaries and caucuses that take place over the course of the next month all favor him,” he said. “People who are worried about electability are slightly more likely to vote for Obama than Clinton.”

As the primaries continue without a clear winner, the differences between this year’s primaries and previous elections are becoming more apparent.

Pitt professor of communications Barbara Warnick noticed “very striking differences” between this year’s primaries and primaries in previous elections.

She said that town hall meetings and the recent debates sponsored by YouTube have contributed positively to the campaigns in that “they’re much less scripted because they offer some level of spontaneity.”

She noted that voter outreach on websites such as MySpace and Facebook are “geared toward young voters.”

As the presidential campaigns continue to wear on, money becomes one of the most important issues for candidates.

“If you don’t have the money, you can’t do the campaigning,” Warnick said.

According to Victor, the indecision shown by voters on Tuesday is “a sign that the race is tight and going to last a while. Just look at how much money they each have. It’s staggering.”

Just how staggering are the numbers? According to opensecrets.org, a website run by the Center for Responsive Politics that tracks political campaign contributions, both Clinton and Obama have already raised more than $100 million. John McCain has raised slightly more than $40 million since his presidential campaign began.

In addition to the challenge of raising money to fund their campaigns, candidates are forced into changing campaign strategies as the primaries continue. “Whatever strategy you used four years ago, you’ll have to use a different one this time around because the media and technologies are always changing,” Warnick said.

Regardless of the eventual presidential nominees, Barker expects young voters to play a more important role in the November election than ever before.

“I think young Democrats will turnout for Clinton, especially young women. The prospect of the first female president will be exciting,” Barker said.

Statistics don’t favor Barker’s opinion though. CBS News reported that nationwide Obama won 56 percent of voters younger than 30 to Clinton’s 42 percent in Super Tuesday results.

“[McCain] has always been known as a rebel. He has a fair amount of support among young people. I think we will see a more active young electorate in this election than we have seen in a long time.”

With no clear answers from Super Tuesday, more importance will be placed on the primaries in the upcoming months, including Pennsylvania.

“This is good news for Pennsylvania because it means our April 22 primary is more likely to be consequential. It could be the case that soon all eyes will be on Pennsylvania,” Victor said.