Peeking at next year’s fantasy draft top 10

I come back to Pittsburgh from my winter break with a new-found camaraderie with Pittsburgh… I come back to Pittsburgh from my winter break with a new-found camaraderie with Pittsburgh sports fans.

Like the 2005 Steelers that wiled their way into the playoffs, my fantasy team (Smart Money) also claimed the No. 6 seed and then rode the cape of LaDainian Tomlinson, culminating in another Steelers juxtaposition – with a win this year.

Like the great Chuck Knoll, I’m the only one in my league to ever win four titles.

But enough egotism – like Bobby Petrino’s dignity, that’s in the past. As we transition into the second week of a brand new semester, there’s only one thing on my mind and, sadly, it’s not attempting to graduate.

My 2008 fantasy football draft is only a mere 214 days away and I couldn’t help but get an early jump on draft season.

Here’s the way I think the first round of next years’ drafts ought to play out.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers – For the first time since 2004, you could actually make an argument against Tomlinson at No. 1, but that argument will undoubtedly have holes.

Sure, Tomlinson’s 18 total touchdowns this year are a step back from the 31 he posted a year ago, but he’s still the closest to a sure thing in fantasy.

Although Norv Turner runs a similar offense to Cam Cameron, it was still a new system for LT and the Chargers offense this year, and it showed early on.

Through the first 11 games, LT only averaged 79.2 yards per game on the ground.

But in the last five games, when fantasy owners need the points most, he was considerably better, averaging 120.2 yards per game.

After all the early disappointment Tomlinson quietly still won the rushing title and scored more total TDsthan any other running back.

2. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams – Some of you might think that I’ve been hanging out with Travis Henry, but I absolutely love Jackson.

The Rams offense had a loathsome year, largely because of Jackson’s groin injury, Orlando Pace’s tricepinjury and Marc Bulger’s disparaging output.

But all the negatives cannot deter me from Jackson.

His 2006 season was staggering and I just can’t get my mind off the 90 catches that he had in 2006.

This year Jackson missed four games and was severely limited in another but still managed to rush for more than 1,000 yards behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Although he only had two 100-yard games, Jackson rushed for 80 or more in five other games.

His reception numbers were down, but I expect a healthy Rams’ offense will bring Jackson a great deal more touches in 2008.

3. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles – For years Westbrook has been the best value in most drafts.

His numbers have always been serviceable, but the last two years Westbrook took his value to the next level.

This year he rushed for 1,333 yards and caught 90 balls with 13 combined touchdowns.

Westbrook is the Eagles offense with or without Donovan McNabb.

There’s nothing like having a running back that touches the ball 20-30 times a game.

4. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings – No doubt the trendy pick of the year, some would argue he should be the No. 1 pick.

The NFL’s offensive rookie of the year is poised for a celebrated career, but I’m a little concerned with his past injuries.

Peterson was hurt three times at Oklahoma, one of which recurred from an injury in high school.

This year Peterson hurt his LCL late in the season, and there’s the possibility Brad Childress may chalk it up to too many touches.

The potential of another injury and less carries – Chester Taylor is still lurking – drops him on my draft board.

Not to mention there’s just something about Tarvaris Jackson that screams eight in the box, although that probably doesn’t matter.

5. Joseph Addai, RB, Colts – Relative to his 2007 expectations, Addai had a disappointing season.

Yes, he finished third among all running backs in touchdowns and total fantasy points, but I expected more inflated numbers from Addai, who no longer had to forfeit any carries to Dominic Rhodes.

Addai did get 35 more carries this year but that’s not enough, and with the minor increase, he actually rushed for less yardage, just barely breaking the 1,000-yard mark.

All that aside, running backs win fantasy leagues, and Addai plays in too good of an offense to let him slide out of the top five.

6.Tom Brady, QB, Patriots – How could I?

Truth is, I probably wouldn’t but it would abase my credibility to ignore Brady’s historic season.

I’ve never been a believer in drafting a quarterback in the first round, never mind sixth overall.

Although I couldn’t fault anybody for taking Brady, no, thanks, it’s not worth it.

This happened before.

The year after Peyton Manning originally set the touchdown record (49), he threw just 28.

7. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots – I actually like Moss better than Brady as long as Moss has Brady.

Moss was a great bargain for the Patriots – and fantasy owners – this year, but if he becomes an unrestricted free agent, his value immediately depreciates.

The Pats will likely slap the franchise tag on Moss, but his value is contingent on Patriots owner Bob Kraft.

8. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers – A healthy Gore could prove to be the best value in the draft.

Gore was banged up this year and still managed to rush for 1,102 yards for a poor San Francisco offense.

He only scored six times, but if the Niners could find a quarterback that could at least pose as a passing threat, Gore will go off.

9. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins – Watching Washington get manhandled up front by the Seahawks on Saturday was a bit discouraging, but Portis finished as the fourth-best fantasy running back and scored 11 touchdowns.

An injury-plagued 2006 season brought murmurs of Ladell Betts stealing some carries, but 2007 came and went and so did doubts of whom the main back was in Washington. Portis played in every game.

10. Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys – There will still be some good running backs on the board here, but if you’re in the Bross (Brady/Moss, a term I just made up for having a quarterback and a receiver on the same team) school of thought, grabbing Owens and Tony Romo with back-to-back picks sounds awfully advantageous.

T.O. had seven straight games with a score this year.