EDITORIAL – New intelligence reveals disarming truth

In 2005, the National Intelligence Estimate assessed “with [a] high level of confidence that… In 2005, the National Intelligence Estimate assessed “with [a] high level of confidence that Iran was determined to develop nuclear weapons.”

Turns out, they were wrong.

Two years – and oh-so-many rhetoric-filled warnings against the imminent threat of Iran’s burgeoning nuclear weapon program – later, the National Intelligence Estimate released its 2007 report, which found that not only is Iran no longer developing a nuclear weapon program, but the program has been halted since 2003.

Whoops.

The intelligence has effectively signaled the death toll for the political rhetoric about the threat posed by Iran, which has become a huge factor in our administration’s current foreign policy, as well as in the 2008 presidential elections.

Despite the embarrassing aspects of the report, this intelligence should come as good news for U.S. citizens and Iran’s enemies in the Middle East. Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. And, if it decided to reinstate a program, wouldn’t be able to have it fully operational until the middle of the next decade, according to the assessment.

The assessment, which represents the consensus view of all 16 American intelligence agencies, also says with high confidence that the halt “was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure,” according to The New York Times.

While the report doesn’t specify the details of the “increasing international scrutiny and pressure” applied to Iran, the timing of the program’s halt does align with the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq – which means that not only is Iran capable of responding to political pressure, it was purposefully avoiding a nuclear program that would put it directly at odds with the United States.

Ultimately, the report doesn’t change our relationship with Iran. Chances are, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was less than thrilled to learn of the latest intelligence report.

But the discovery that Iran has, in the past, responded to political pressures could have widespread implications.

If Iran is capable of responding to political pressure in regard to its nuclear weapon program, it might be capable of responding to diplomatic pressure.

This isn’t to say that Bush and Ahmadinejad are going to become fast friends, but now that we know Iran is no longer going to engage our allies in nuclear warfare, representatives from both countries should sit down and engage in discussions about our respective priorities and come to some diplomatic decisions.

Now that we know Iran has halted its nuclear program, we have the upper hand. The fear factor is gone.

But rather than use this intelligence as further evidence that Iran is capable of pursuing a nuclear weapons program and continue the fear-filled rhetoric against the country, our administration – and the 2008 presidential candidates – needs to use the report to force the possibility of diplomacy.

It’s a relatively straightforward situation. Iran continues to pose challenges to U.S. foreign policy. Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program. Iran is capable of responding to political pressure.

So, why aren’t we speaking to them?