Swing states should have earlier primaries

There are a few things I love about living in Pennsylvania: the ketchup, the state beverage… There are a few things I love about living in Pennsylvania: the ketchup, the state beverage (milk), Hershey Park, the abundance of fresh fruit and vegetable stands along major roads and highways, and, most of all, I love living in a swing state.

As a swing state, and one with a considerable amount of electoral votes – our 21 votes rank us fifth in the country – Pennsylvania has quite a bit of political power.

Though we’ve voted for Democrats in the last four presidential elections, both parties know that Pennsylvania’s recent dalliance with the Democratic Party doesn’t necessarily mean anything. After all, the state voted for Republicans in the four elections spanning the late ’70s and ’80s, and we are a state that has had traditionally close general election votes.

All of this means that candidates from both parties will be trying their best to secure Pennsylvania’s votes next fall. For residents of the state, this equates to a profusion of guest speakers – celebrities and politicos alike, huge rallies – filled with free food, bumper stickers and buttons, concerts with your favorite political singers and musicians and, depending on your political party, those pre-recorded phone calls from Tom Hanks or Mel Gibson or some other celebrity trying to solicit your vote.

Now that primary season is well under way, however, the state has seen very little action. This is because while swing states like Pennsylvania – also Ohio and Florida – hold a lot of power in the general election, our votes don’t mean much in the primaries.

In the primary elections, the states with the earliest ballots are most important for a few reasons. First, they indicate which candidates are the most popular, causing other contenders to drop out of the race before some states even have a chance to vote.

The early primaries also often create a bandwagon effect, inciting residents of other states to vote with the candidate who has the early momentum.

Most importantly, the majority of candidates flat out ignore campaigning for primaries in states with a late election – Pennsylvania and Ohio included. Usually, the nomination is already secured well before we even hold our primary, making it more of a formality than anything else.

And sadly for Pennsylvania, there are just seven states that vote after us. Even the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam cast their primary votes before Pennsylvania. Ohio doesn’t fare much better, casting its ballot 38th in line.

The problem with this system is that the states whose decisions really matter in determining the outcome of a general election aren’t picking the candidates. Clearly, in a state where citizens vote differently from candidate to candidate, as opposed to along party lines, the party nomination matters.

If Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and Michigan were the first primary states to vote, then the party would choose the candidate most likely to get the votes of the swing states in the general election.

Instead, the states are playing a vicious game of leapfrog, with Florida breaking all of the rules – especially those of the Democratic National Committee. According to an Associated Press report, after states like Illinois and California bumped their primaries ahead, Florida followed suit, moving its primary up to Jan. 29 – a full week earlier than allowed by the Democratic Party rules.

Violating these rules means that the state will be stripped of half its delegates and any candidate who campaigns there will be ineligible for any delegates at all.

This is bad news for the Democrats because when it comes to swing states, Florida is the mother of them all, with a whopping 27 electoral votes and a constituency as inconsistent as PennDOT’s construction schedule.

Though there is a lawsuit going on right now that challenges this punishment, it’s not looking like Florida is going to win this one, with states like Iowa and South Carolina making the most noise about tradition and rules.

According to the St. Petersburg Times, Carol Fowler, the chairwoman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, said, “I’m sorry to be the one to say, Florida is not the center of the universe.”

Unfortunately, as far as the political game goes, it kind of is. And if things don’t change, it’s looking like none of the three big swing states – Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida – will have any say in the Democratic nomination.

Is Florida really worth all the trouble? And for that matter, are its oranges really as delicious as everyone says they are? Discuss these critical questions with Molly at mog4@pitt.edu.