Fantasy football 101: Lesson one of two

You’ve anticipated it all summer when reading a fantasy magazine front to back, making… You’ve anticipated it all summer when reading a fantasy magazine front to back, making side-bets and talking trash to the other members of your league.

It’s the night of the draft, and you’re at your commissioner’s house. The pizza has arrived, and it’s time for the first pick.

And just like that it happens:

“I’ll take LT.”

Big surprise. You knew all along that San Diego Chargers running back LaDanian Tomlinson would be selected first, but you still held out from writing his name on your makeshift draft board, made of construction paper, in the false hopes that the fantasy freak might slip.

No chance. For the first time in years there is a runaway consensus No. 1 pick in Tomlinson. Unless of course some homer from Beaver Falls gets a little anxious and jumps on Willie Parker first. I’ve seen worse.

The predictability of your draft all but ends there. After Tomlinson is drafted, anything goes. Many different strategies may ensue. Don’t go kamikaze here, though. Take a running back.

It is widely known that running backs win fantasy leagues. Whoever thinks they don’t has never won a league before. Every few drafts there is somebody who thinks of fantasy in the same frame of mind as he does the actual game. And it’s never a good idea. It’s entirely different.

Typically, a quarterback runs your offense, but in the realm of the fantasy world a running back is regarded as more valuable. It doesn’t stop there.

Though it may sound strange to some, in this make-believe fantasy world, the number of sacks a defense records is more important than the number of points it allows. Gaudy stats are what fantasy is all about.

Intangibles don’t count. So just because the Ravens might be successful this year doesn’t mean Steve McNair is going to win your squad many games.

Only one can win the LT lottery, so even if you don’t pull the No. 1 pick out of your buddy’s old Steelers hat, there are still plenty of guys who can win you a title.

Last year Tomlinson was only the third-ranked player in the playoff weeks (weeks 15, 16 and 17, depending on your league settings). Stephen Jackson, second in most drafts, had the most. In addition, he, not Tomlinson, led the NFL in total yards from scrimmage.

When coming into the draft, it should be assumed neither Jackson nor Tomlinson will be available, and the person drafting third may need every minute on the clock to make his selection. The decision is difficult, so here are some tips to help you field a team that will be considered a serious contender

Who to take third?

After Jackson and Tomlinson, Frank Gore and Larry Johnson are the popular picks at three and four.

Gore had a breakout year in 2006 with an inexperienced offense. San Francisco is a trendy pick this year, and its offense is much improved. Gore is a safe pick.

Johnson was second in the league in touchdowns last year, but after holding out for a large part of camp this year, he is behind schedule and says he may not even be ready to go in the first week of the season at Houston. Kansas City will also be without the services of perennial pro-bowl lineman Willie Roaf. That could potentially hurt the Chiefs’ rushing attack.

Contrary to the norm, I don’t like either Gore or Johnson at No. 3. It’s a bad pick to have because of the equality of the backs sitting there. But if I hold that pick, I’m taking the Colts’ Joseph Addai.

With the departure of Dominic Rhoads to Oakland, Addai will see more touches. Last year he only received 52 percent of the carries in Indianapolis and still recorded a 1,000-yard season with seven touchdowns, and that’s excluding his monstrous post-season. We all know what that offense is capable of, and now Addai has the backfield all to himself. Party time.

Be prepared

There are always a few people who assume all they have to do is grab a fantasy magazine or print a cheat sheet, and they’ll be ready to draft without preparing a strategy. Unless the other members of your league are either doing the same or are drunk, then it’s probably not going to be enough.

The best way to prepare for your draft is to study players, break down their performances and analyze their statistical potential.

Make your own rankings. And the most efficient way to do it is in groups. Rank your players on a positional basis where you group them in levels.

For example, while Tomlinson and Jackson are on one level, Gore, Seattle’s Shaun Alexander, Johnson and Addai may be on the next.

This will help you realize where the most depth is and predict where you can suck out the most value.

Editor’s note: This is the first part of a two-part fantasy column. Look in tomorrow’s Pitt News for the second half.