Pitt will finally advance the Sweet 16 this year

I’ll preface this work by revealing one simple truth – I did sign on to pick Pitt past the… I’ll preface this work by revealing one simple truth – I did sign on to pick Pitt past the Sweet 16 before the brackets were released. Austin Powers isn’t the only one that likes to live dangerously, trust me. This is an arduous task for a Pitt team that has never been past the Sweet 16 in recent NCAA Tournament history.

That being said, I’m not sure I entirely believe that this team will get past the round. That doesn’t mean, though, that the thought isn’t a plausible one.

Here’s the thing with Pitt basketball, and it has become that much more obvious over the last few weeks. Jamie Dixon’s team is going to have a chance in nearly every game it plays, because the Panthers’ style ceases to change. Pitt gets clean looks at the basket in every game so long as the turnovers are kept to a minimum. The shot selection is admittedly better at some times than others, but it is never terrible, and that will help in the tournament.

The only difference, then, in the recent wins and losses is that the shots simply haven’t gone in. I don’t think we need Joe Lunardi to tell us that teams do, at some point, have to put the ball into the basket to stand a chance at winning. That’s the only difference between the Pitt that got to the Big East final and the Pitt that fell apart down the stretch of the conference season – the shots just stopped falling.

So as simplistic as it sounds, all Pitt needs to do to advance is make its shots. Pitt’s 16-for-61 outing against Georgetown isn’t going to cut it, and Dixon knows that. This team has to keep doing what it’s been doing all season, but now more than ever, the shots have to start falling.

Pitt has shot 36 percent or below five times in the last month, the two worst outings coming against the Hoyas. The worst part about it has been, though, that the problems have come consistently from the same Pitt players. The struggles of Antonio Graves and Levance Fields have been the most apparent. Then there is the one-for-13 showing that Aaron Gray put up against the Hoyas.

All it takes for these games to be turned around, though, is for the shots to start going through, and who is to say that won’t start to happen? This is, after all, a Pitt team that once led the Big East in 3-point shooting percentage and the Big East in field goal percentage. It’s not as if this team is incapable, it is just struggling to regain its old form.

We did see a few flashes of early season Pitt in last week’s Big East Tournament, just not in the final. Pitt shot 49 percent from the floor, including a six-for-11 night from 3-point land, in an 89-79 win over Marquette in the quarterfinals. That win was as important as any for the Panthers this season, since the Eagles had their number and Pitt just couldn’t seem to respond.

After a tough first half, Pitt used hot shooting to spark a 20-2 run to dump Louisville, 65-59, in the next night’s semifinals. The Panthers rebounded to shoot 40 percent in that one, a significant improvement from the team’s 17-for-48 showing Pitt had in a February loss to the Cardinals.

True, it all fell apart the next night against the Hoyas, but nobody can refute the fact that Pitt got the shots it wanted. John Thompson III even admitted that, as well as his defense played, it was helped out by Pitt missing a lot of shots it normally makes.

The reason Pitt has a chance to win each of these games is that the Panthers take care of the ball. Even in the losses, as hard as they are to watch from an offensive perspective, Pitt holds onto the ball, which lets the Panthers get off shots. Pitt averaged just over seven turnovers a game in its three Big East Tournament games, including a six-turnover performance against the Cardinals, who forced them into a season-high 19 a month earlier. Pitt is disciplined and methodical in its ways whether the shots are falling or not. The only difference in the stats is the final score, completely contingent upon the shots going through.

Pitt is going to have a tough time with Wright state, but this is as good an opportunity as Aaron Gray will have to rectify his recent Big East Tournament wrong. The senior absolutely must establish himself inside – with buckets and not just nice post moves. It’s true that Wright State’s Deshaun Wood is as good as any player Pitt has, but that isn’t going to be enough to stop Gray. Pitt is too disciplined and too strong for the Raiders inside.

Then comes either Duke or Virginia Commonwealth. VCU is becoming too trendy of a pick – as much as I don’t want to take Duke, the Blue Devils are capable of putting together solid games. Pitt should beat both of these teams, but the tougher task lies with the Blue Devils. Overall we look at Duke as a team that doesn’t have a natural, go-to scorer. Now, Pitt doesn’t either, but the Panthers’ system doesn’t rely on that. Dixon has a team full of potential scoring studs, but none of them need to. Pitt gets it done in a tight one.

Likely waiting in the wings will be UCLA, a team I am convinced the committee will try to match Pitt up with every year until they actually play. This, obviously, is a matchup of Ben Howland and his greatest invention in the Pitt basketball program, this time for a game that matters. While I have thought the Bruins to be a better team all season, we have seen some vulnerability down the stretch, especially away from home. UCLA’s guards are the team’s entire offense, but when they are off, they are off, like Aaron-Gray-Big-East-Championship-game off. Pitt can always hope for an off shooting day from the Bruins to get the win – that might be what it takes to get past the Bruins.