No Gray area against UCLA: Pitt must be perfect

My, what a weekend it was for Pitt.

Two days after coasting past 14th-seeded Wright State… My, what a weekend it was for Pitt.

Two days after coasting past 14th-seeded Wright State in the first round, Pitt got all it could handle from upstart Virginia Commonwealth, most of it coming after the Panthers built a 19-point lead.

After VCU came all the way back to take its first lead of the game with 52 seconds remaining, Jamie Dixon’s team forced overtime and staved off a game bunch of upset-minded Rams to make it into the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in seven seasons.

UCLA, a team ranked inside the top 10 for the entire season, holding the top spot for six weeks, is next. UCLA has a coach, I hear, some guy who apparently knows his way around a basketball court. That’s the rumor, at least.

Now Pitt will look to get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams. Left inside the Panthers’ San Jose bracket are Pitt, UCLA, Southern Illinois and Kansas.

Can this be the year for Pitt?

How did Pitt blow such a large lead against VCU?

A few reasons, some of them within Pitt’s control, others far from it.

First of all, Cinderella rarely goes quietly. True, Pitt had a 51-32 lead that appeared to be more than enough, but any team that plays fast and furious like VCU, with lots of 3s and ball pressure, is always going to make a run. Add to that the team’s underdog status and rarely does that add up to a double-digit victory.

Pitt was banged up, and that hurt. Aaron Gray had food poisoning and looked like he just wanted to be knocked out. The guy looked miserable, and that is too bad because it was right after he played a very good, very controlled game inside. Add to it Mike Cook’s injury, and it’s easy to see why VCU made a run.

Cook was a Commonwealth killer. He had 10 points and seven boards in the first half. He got to the rim whenever he wanted, and he had a great advantage getting his own misses because of his quickness. He stays in the game and Pitt wins by seven comfortably – Mike Cook is that important to this team.

And VCU obviously caught fire from 3. It’s easy to forget that Pitt blew that lead when you consider the thrilling fashion in which it won.

To see Levance Fields hit that 3-pointer after missing those two free throws had to make you cheer, no matter who you are.

What does Pitt need to do to beat UCLA on Thursday?

Sadly, Pitt does have to do one annoying thing – hope for a bad UCLA shooting night.

It just has to happen. If UCLA’s guards really get going, it will be tough for Pitt to win. The best way the Panthers can prevent that is with a concentrated defensive effort, and that begins on the offensive end for this team.

When Pitt plays controlled, disciplined ball on offense, the defense usually gets more confident. Despite the 16 turnovers, Pitt looked very calm on offense, especially in the half-court game, against VCU.

The more relaxed the Panthers are, the likelier they are to take the time to establish a solid inside game. Gray has the edge inside once again, and if Pitt exposes that, then that puts pressure on the Bruins’ guards to score to compensate.

Also, when UCLA’s guards are off, they are really off. That’s what happens when your team has little-to-no post presence – you will live and die by the small guys.

I think UCLA’s guards are good enough to win this game on their own, but even a bad start can lead to a terrible ending, and if Pitt is banging inside, it might be a lost cause for Ben Howland’s team.

Will Pitt get to the Final Four?

Until I saw UCLA play Indiana, I didn’t believe that Pitt could even get past the Sweet 16. Now I think it has a chance to topple the Bruins, despite the game being in California, because of the possibility of Gray and Levon Kendall controlling the inside.

But should Pitt win, it would likely get Kansas in the Elite Eight, and that is just a different beast altogether. It’s a beast that is playing better than anybody in the country right now and one that has more talent than any other club around.

It’s a beast with Brandon Rush and Julian Wright, who Pitt simply does not have any answers for.

At this stage, too much would have to go right for Pitt to best the Jayhawks in the Elite Eight if the Panthers can get past UCLA. We’re talking high shooting percentages with a good game on the boards, fewer than eight turnovers and a severe stranglehold on the Jayhawks’ fast-breaking ability. That, already, is too much for me to advance this team past Kansas.

Even though I find it plausible that Pitt gets past UCLA, I say the Panthers are edged by the Bruins and find that 16 just isn’t as sweet as it is for those bratty girls who celebrate it on MTV.