Or not? Balestrino: not this year

Fresh off yet another deep run in the Big East Tournament, the Pitt Panthers look to… Fresh off yet another deep run in the Big East Tournament, the Pitt Panthers look to validate their preseason expectations by advancing further than they ever have in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, that is not likely to occur.

Despite a late-season slide, the Panthers avenged earlier defeats to Marquette and Louisville in the Big East Tournament and actually tied for the second-best comeback in school history by overcoming an 11-point halftime deficit to beat the Cardinals. The Panthers also appeared in their sixth Big East title game in the past seven seasons – a remarkable feat. In many ways, the 2007 Panthers resemble those of past seasons, and it is that resemblance that leads me to believe that this one will also fail to advance past the Sweet 16.

Like past Pitt teams, the 2007 edition features an aggressive bunch with a team-first and defensive mentality. Like past teams, the 2007 squad has many good players, but has no Kevin Durant-type player or an equivalent “go-to guy.”

Like past teams, Pitt can’t shoot from the free-throw line. The 2007 Panthers are also following a familiar late-season trend – finishing with a superb regular season record, advancing to the Big East Tournament championship and losing it, gaining a top-five NCAA Tournament bid, and losing by the Sweet 16. Because of these similarities, there is no reason to believe this year’s team is any different.

No. 3-seeded Pitt is due to face 14th-seeded Wright State in its first game. Wright State is a team that upset Butler in the Horizon League’s championship game. Nonetheless, Pitt should not have much trouble getting past them. However, their next opponent will either be Duke or Virginia Commonwealth, both of whom are quality opponents.

VCU beat last year’s Cinderella, George Mason, in the Colonial League Championship game to capture the No. 11 seed in the Tournament. The Rams were 27-6 overall and have played consistently well all season. However, aside from Calvin Roland, they have no one who can contest with Aaron Gray. The bigger, stronger Panthers should also beat them in round two, assuming they pull the upset and get past Duke.

One of the nation’s premier teams year in and year out, the Duke Blue Devils are not familiar with a sixth-seed, which is considered low for them. Just off one of their worst regular seasons in recent years, the Devils went 22-10 overall, but finished just 8-8 in the ACC. Yet, any Mike Krzyzewski team is battle-proven, well-prepared and should be respected. A Pitt-Duke matchup would be highly competitive and would likely come down to the final minutes, but again, Pitt should prevail.

Barring any upsets, that would put Pitt in a Sweet 16 matchup against former coach Ben Howland and the second-seeded UCLA Bruins. Last season’s national runner-up, the Bruins went 26-5 in the regular season, but have lost their last two games including an overtime loss to California in the Pac-10 Tournament. If it occurs, the matchup will be highly anticipated, because both teams play a similar style of game, thanks in large part to Howland, who installed his defensive-first system as head coach at Pitt before handing over the reigns to Jamie Dixon. The Bruins are very deep and athletic and are as good a team as any in the tournament. They are led by Arron Afflalo, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison, all of whom are capable of putting up big numbers on any given night. Despite their recent slump, the Bruins are just too good and too well-coached to not advance further in the tournament. Therefore, Pitt’s 2007 NCAA Tournament run will likely end where it has in the past, in the Sweet 16 – this time at the heels of Ben Howland’s Bruins.