Fourth nuke age may be on horizon

The global community is currently in the midst of the third nuclear age and Principal Deputy… The global community is currently in the midst of the third nuclear age and Principal Deputy Director General of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission Ariel Levite believes that if we aren’t careful, we could transition into a fourth age within the next five years.

In his lecture for Pitt’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs yesterday, Levite outlined the defining features of the prior as well as current nuclear ages.

He also identified the recent international developments that he warns could push the global community into a fourth nuclear age, fraught with increased tension about the proliferation and management of nuclear weapons.

“It’s nice to be here, among friends,” Levite began. “Friendship is important because the topic is not all that encouraging.”

Levite said that, so far, there have been three distinct nuclear ages, each lasting roughly two decades. The eras are separated by virtue of different defining goals or sentiments surrounding the state of nuclear power at the time.

According to Levite, the first nuclear age began in 1945 with the emergence of nuclear weapons and ended in 1967 with the establishment of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

“I would describe the first nuclear age as a period of surviving and learning through crisis,” Levite said.

The crisis cited by Levite was the decision by the United States to use nuclear force against Japan to end World War II. “Learning,” then, stemmed from the subsequent realization of the destructive capabilities of nuclear weapons and the necessity of managing and restricting their use.

Closely following the advent of the first nuclear weapons, five dominant nuclear states emerged. The possession of nuclear technology among these five states triggered an arms race among other states, vying to join what Levite called “the nuclear club.”

Fears about the dangers inherent in widespread nuclear weapons capabilities led to what Levite called “the evolution of deterrence theory and practice.”

“This took us from ‘assured destruction’ to ‘mutually assured destruction’ which led to the emergence of the norm of non-proliferation,” Levite said.

It was this transition to a more cautious means of thinking about nuclear power that ushered in the second nuclear age.

“The second nuclear age, which I would submit starts in 1967 and ends in 1989 or 1991, was characterized mostly be the efforts to manage stability,” Levite said.

“And I mean managing and not curtailing,” Levite said, because by this time, technology had already spread considerably among states.

Levite cited the “emergence of a range of whole nuclear hedgers” and “the demise of nuclear power following Chernobyl and Three Mile Island” as the two main events of the second nuclear age.

According to Levite, the third nuclear age of today is a period defined by complacency and disillusions.

“Presumably, the third phase started with very good news,” Levite said. “Specifically, two and a half pieces of good news.”

The first promising event came in the form of the dissolution of the Soviet Union into a number of smaller states. Next, North Korea’s suspected nuclear program was slowed. The last positive event however, Levite said was only “half” good news.

“The Iraqi program was set back by U.S. military action that took Iraq out of business for a while,” Levite said. “But I only consider this to be half good because it was done militarily and bred negative feelings between the U.S. and the Middle East.”

Levite warns that the global community would be wise to maintain an attitude of vigilant awareness so as to prevent future nuclear trouble and more nuclear eras.