North Korean nukes to threaten stability in Asia

For the leader of a nation as reclusive as North Korea, Kim Jong Il sure seems hungry for… For the leader of a nation as reclusive as North Korea, Kim Jong Il sure seems hungry for attention on a global scale. Exactly why or to what end, though, is quite a puzzler when you look at the way he goes about it. One would imagine that a ruler who has managed to maintain popularity in a country that suffers so much from his leadership would be sharp enough to have awareness of his own inglorious reputation around the planet. And if he does, one has to wonder if he actually thinks that what he’s doing benefits anyone, even himself. He certainly has cultivated a singular persona, even for eccentric dictators, and part of North Korea’s maverick nature is tied to how the rest of world is kept guessing over whether Kim Jong Il is really as maniacal as his creepy regime or his Treasure Troll hairdo may suggest.

Whatever the answer to that is, Kim certainly likes to help keep the rest of the world on edge. Although reports on his country’s recent nuclear test suggest that North Korea’s nuclear technology is still too sloppy to be equipped in a bomb as yet, thus far it has serviced him well as a psychological weapon.

The main worry is not, of course, North Korea itself flinging nukes at people, nor is it selling nukes to terrorists, nor is it that North Korea could possibly use its newfound nuclear powers to spearhead some new “axis of evil” coalition to fulfill that bogus title. For all its bluster, North Korea is too isolated, poor, and universally disliked to lead a coalition of nations or even rogue organizations. And like any leader who knows how to survive, Kim won’t actually use nuclear weapons unless he has a sincere death wish.

The real concern is what could result from the political shockwaves of Kim’s nuclear stunt, which could even outlast the People’s Republic of Korea itself. Naturally, North Korea’s quarrelsome neighbors are especially wary of a nuclear threat, and this paranoia is reopening old wounds in the already uneasy relations between China, Japan and South Korea. They do all agree that North Korea with nuclear capabilities is not a good thing; but not one of them likes what the others are planning to do about it.

China has long been one of North Korea’s only friends in the world, but it looks like Beijing’s patience is starting to snap with this latest nuclear testing development. North Korea’s relationship with China increasingly resembles that of a miserable rabid dog and its uneasy master, a master who keeps his distance but is too attached to the old mutt to not continue protecting it and feeding it scraps.

China’s government is upset with Kim because nuclear tests could seriously threaten stability in East Asia, and that’s the last thing China wants. It really doesn’t want another war on the Korean peninsula, which for China would likely entail having to bail North Korea out again and dealing with another exodus of North Koreans flooding over the Chinese border.

Japan is freaked out because its relations with North Korea (or the Korean peninsula in general) have historically been pretty bad. As such the Japanese are in a quandary over whether to revive their old military capabilities that they swore off so long ago, and even whether to pursue their own nuclear program – a moral dilemma indeed for the one and only country that has actually suffered nuclear attacks on its soil.

South Korea’s alarm shouldn’t need an explanation here. It is also making plans to beef up its military, and is pondering whether to pioneer its own nuclear program not just to match North Korea but to rival China’s and potentially Japan’s as well.

So even if North Korea’s own nuclear aspirations fizzle out before long, it can still trigger a nasty arms race between the three real East Asian powers. It would potentially be a major loss for the already dying cause of preventing further proliferation of nukes, and it’s a much more possible scenario than Kim dealing out nukes to terrorists.

Beyond the East Asia region, North Korea’s stubborn push for nuclear weapons will certainly undermine efforts everywhere to reduce the spread of nuclear weapons capabilities. But to be fair, America and the other incumbent nuclear powers are doing that already by doing far too little to get rid of our own nuclear weapons while dishing out didactic sermons about the dangers of nukes spreading to other countries like we’re divinely mandated to have them ourselves. And with each new nuclear weapons program, the hope that any one nuclear-endowed country will have the guts to give up their own program gets exponentially darker.

Building a bomb shelter? E-mail Konrad at klk27@pitt.edu.