Points to ponder before picking up your pencil

If you have never filled out an NCAA Tournament bracket, you may think it is OK to pick every… If you have never filled out an NCAA Tournament bracket, you may think it is OK to pick every higher seed to win in each matchup. However, the truth is, that never works. That is why we call it March Madness.

So, before you fill out your office pool, here’s a guide to some of the biggest trends when it comes to the most exciting three weeks in sports:

Love the 12 — In each of the past five seasons, at least one 12 seed has beaten a 5 seed in the first round. This year, my favorite 12s are Utah State and Montana. Also, keep in mind that if you pick a 12 seed in the first round, 12 seeds are over .500 in tournament history in the second round. Therefore, if you are looking for that big early upset, I say put Utah State in the Sweet 16.

Hate the 1 — In the entire history of the NCAA Tournament, never have all four of the No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. However, in that same span of history, No. 1 seeds have never lost in the first round either. So after you put them through to the second round, look for Memphis and Villanova to face the toughest tests.

Pick the 9- — Throughout the history of the tournament, one of the best picks for an early upset is a 9 seed. Nine seeds have actually won more games in the first round than 8 seeds since the seeding process began. This year look long and hard at North Carolina-Wilmington, the team I think has the best chance for the win from a No. 9 seed.

-but just one time — If and when you do pick a 9 seed to win, you should almost never pick them to advance to the Sweet 16 over the top seed. In the 46 previous matchups between a 9 seed and a 1 seed, the No. 9 team has advanced only three times and been sent packing on 43 occasions.

See ya, 7! — If you like Marquette or Cal to advance through the first round as a 7 seed, don’t be so quick to push them to the Sweet 16. No. 7 seeds have won more than 25 percent of the time in the second round, making them one of the worst bets to advance to the round of 16.

Love the 1 — When it comes time to pick your winner, a No. 1 seed is still the safest bet. A No. 1 seed has won 12 times since seeding began, while seeds 2-15 have won a combined nine times. Also, keep in mind that no team seeded lower than eighth has ever won the tournament — Villanova was No. 8 when they won in 1985 — and no No. 5 seed has ever won either. (Sorry, Panthers!)

Those were some general rules for bracket building. As for my own bracket, I love the Panthers. I think although they got a lower seed than they deserved, they got put in the bracket with the weakest No. 1 seed and the weakest No. 3 seed. On top of that, they have an opening round matchup that benefits their style. Pitt’s toughest test will come in the second round when they have to play Kansas. If they get by the Jayhawks, look out, because the Panthers might not be stopped.

With that said, I say take UConn as your champion. There is no other team that can match their talent if they play their best game. I think Boston College is a legitimate Final Four team and I think Georgetown could play in the Elite Eight. Keep your eye on Seton Hall as well because I think Tennessee is way overrated and will fall early, as will Florida and Iowa.

Good luck filling out your brackets, and let the madness begin!

Matt Sortino is a senior staff writer for The Pitt News. E-mail him at mbs3@pitt.edu.