Bracket busters and busts in the NCAA tourney

With March just around the corner, Pitt fans wonder where their Panthers will be playing and… With March just around the corner, Pitt fans wonder where their Panthers will be playing and who they’ll be playing.

Let’s review some teams that could present a roadblock in Pitt’s tournament experience. Then we’ll discuss some teams that will probably receive higher seeds than or similar seeds to Pitt but drop like flies when real competition challenges them.

Assume Pitt receives a two or three seed in the NCAA tournament. That means the Panthers will play some of the toughest teams in the bracket, particularly six, seven, 10 and 11 seeds.

These teams usually underachieved in big conferences or overachieved in mid-majors. Both of these types of teams are very dangerous in March.

Some threats will probably come out of the Missouri Valley Conference. The MVC could receive up to four bids thanks to lackluster seasons in the Pac-10 and ACC.

We could talk about Wichita State, Southern Illinois or Creighton from the MVC, but let’s focus on MVC frontrunner Northern Iowa.

The Northern Iowa Panthers run a guard offense and love shooting the 3. Of their six major contributors, four are guards and none are over 6 feet 8 inches tall.

Pitt struggles defending the 3-pointer and Northern Iowa will hit their open jumpers. As a team, Northern Iowa shoots 47 percent from the field and 36 percent from 3.

Northern Iowa won at LSU and also beat Big Ten-leading Iowa. They compete regardless of the opponent and carry the reputation of fiery competitors, typical of a Missouri Valley school.

Hidden in the middle of Pennsylvania, potential Cinderella team Bucknell lies more or less unnoticed despite the fact that the Bison cracked the top 25 this week.

A year removed from their shocking one-point upset of Kansas in the first round of last year’s tournament, the Bison are 20-3 with wins over Syracuse, DePaul and St. Joseph’s.

This is another small school that shoots well, relying on a three-headed monster of scorers, led by junior center Chris McNaughton.

Alongside McNaughton are senior guards Kevin Bettancourt and Charles Lee, guys that love spreading the floor and slashing to the basket or knocking down 3s.

Bucknell has shown its ability to rise to the occasion and fear no one, especially big conference teams. The Bison could be a 10 or 11 seed that makes a run to the Sweet 16, but at the same time if they beat Northern Iowa this weekend they could jump up to a six or seven.

While these two teams could present a difficult challenge for Pitt in the earlier rounds, there are some overrated teams that will probably receive higher seeds than the Panthers.

Looking at the top 15 ranked teams, two might stick out at you. Watch George Washington, a team whose only real challenge was against N.C. State on the road, a game they lost by 21.

The Colonials run a lot, using their athleticism and depth to wear down their opponents. Sound familiar?

Pitt can run with GW, but how would GW fare against a half-court offense with a 7-footer in the middle?

GW’s tallest regular is 6-8 and, as we saw with Cincinnati Sunday, Aaron Gray feasts on smaller teams.

Pitt could use their slew of guards and wing players to play strong transition defense while their half-court offense could control the game’s tempo.

Another team almost always considered tournament floppers is Florida.

Since reaching the 2000 championship game, the Gators have lost three times in the second round and twice in the first round. In those losses, their lowest seeding was five.

That’s choke city if you ask me.

Florida starts four sophomores and only one senior plays regularly. Hello, inexperience.

Pitt could run with the Gators and disrupt Florida’s style with a slower tempo on offense.

I have to admit, this year’s Panthers look equipped to make a run in the NCAA tournament. They will meet some tough teams that play with heart and they will challenge some teams that play with regular season hangovers.

It’s February folks, a time for research, studying and preparation. March Madness is only a month away – are you ready?

Jeff Greer is a staff writer for The Pitt News. E-mail him at jag59@pitt.edu.