Hot off the campaign trail

Following are news items by Knight Ridder’s political bloggers. FUN WITH FOODSTUFFS… Following are news items by Knight Ridder’s political bloggers. FUN WITH FOODSTUFFS

So we’ve got the Redskins theory, the Dow Jones theory and Bobblehead doll theory of predicting a presidential winner. You can now add to that the 7-Eleven coffee theory.

The chain is offering voters a chance to register their presidential preference by offering them a choice of to-go coffee cups: George W. Bush or John Kerry.

“The election’s in your hands. Cast your `vote’ for Bush, Kerry or an independent with every cup of freshly brewed coffee you buy at 7-Eleven. Final poll results to be posted on Nov. 2, 2004, ” the promotion reads. (It also notes this isn’t a scientific poll for those who may have been wondering)

As of Oct. 29, Bush cups were outselling Kerry cups 51 percent to 49 percent – but it ain’t over till it’s over, after all.

You doubting Thomas’ should note: during California’s infamous gubernatorial recall election, Taco Bell ran a similar promotion where Golden State residents could register their electoral preference by ordering tacos, chalupas or grilled, stuffed burritos. The winner in a landslide: none other than Gov. Arnold Schwarzengger.

-By Lori Aratani, San Jose Mercury News

IF IT’S MONDAY IT MUST BE MADISON …

If it’s 5:20 p.m. (ET) than we must be in Sioux City – that is if you’re George W. Bush, who plans to rally there this evening.

Between them – Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards – have 22 events scheduled in 13 different states Monday – and that doesn’t count appearances by wives, children and other surrogates. Cheney, fresh from his visit to the suddenly-in-play Aloha State, gets to stop at home briefly for an 11:20 p.m. (ET) rally in Jackson Hole, Who.

Star report: the Oak Ridge Boys will appear with Bush in Wisconsin; Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling also joined the president on the trail; Bruce Springsteen (who seems to be having a rockin’ good time) is slated to appear with Kerry in Cleveland. Stevie Wonder will share the stage with the Masschusetts senator in Detroit. Jimmy Buffet meets up with Edwards in Pompano Beach, Fla.

Oh and for those keeping track: Ralph Nader is in New York.

-By Lori Aratani, San Jose Mercury News

THOUGHTS ON TURNOUT

Conventional wisdom says high turnout is good for the Democrats, but in this topsy-turvy election year, it’s anyone’s guess what might happen.

One thing we can be sure of: folks can expect to see even more photos of anxious votes lining up to cast their ballots. In Florida, which offers early voting, some people have been willing to wait as long as two hours to be sure they get their say.

It sounds like record turnout all around.

In California, the secretary of state is predicting a 73 percent voter turnout. Swing state Ohio – where voters probably will be happy to resume television commercials that hawk cereal and cold medicine, rather than either George W. Bush or John Kerry – voter turnout is also likely to hit 73 percent. In Wisconsin, officials are expecting 75 percent of the voters to cast ballots.

Overall, it looks as if 58 percent to 60 percent of registered voters will turnout this year. Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, says that translates to 118 million to 120 million Americans. In 2000, 54 percent, or 106 million of registered voters cast their ballots.

-By Lori Aratani, San Jose Mercury News

OMENS RULE; POLLSTERS DROOL

Could professional sports augur any better for Kerry? The Massachusetts senator, no slouch in the superstition racket, is on quite a streak. The New England Patriots won the Super Bowl and Kerry practically ran the table during the primaries.

Then the Boston Red Sox won the World Series after making a historic comeback against the Hated Yankees to win the American League pennant. The end of the Curse of the Bambino was a supersize metaphor for the Kerry campaign.

Sunday was the Redskins-Green Bay Packers game.

Some history here. Since 1932, every time the Redskins (or their predecessors) have lost the game before Election Day, the party in the White House has lost. Everytime they’ve won that pre-election game, the incumbent party has won. That’s 17 presidential elections

So picking sides was pretty simple. Bush for the Redskins; Kerry for the Packers (even though he once called the storied Lambeax Field “Lambert Field”). Redskins coach Joe Gibbs, a strong Bush backer, had a double stake in the game.

Final score: Packers 28, Redskins 14.

The Packers victory was enough to prompt a quick e-mail to reporters from the campaign, with the requisite Kerry quote. This even though Kerry told Knight Ridder on Friday that he wasn’t too concerned about the outcome because the Red Sox win had wiped away all other curses, omens, portents and premonitions.

“This streak started with Herbert Hoover, and will continue this week when George Bush, the only president since Hoover to lose jobs, loses his,” Kerry said in a statement.

Here’s the decades old record, thanks to the Green Bay Press Gazette:

2000: Tennessee 27, Redskins 21 … Democrats lose White House (George W. Bush defeats Al Gore)

1996: Redskins 31, Indianapolis 16 … Democrats keep it (Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole)

1992: New York Giants 24, Redskins 7 … Republicans lose it (Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush)

1988: Redskins 27, New Orleans 24 … Republicans keep it (Bush defeats Michael Dukakis)

1984: Redskins 27, Atlanta 14… Republicans keep it (Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale)

1980: Minnesota 39, Redskins 14 … Democrats lose it (Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter)

1976: Dallas 20, Redskins 7 … Republicans lose it (Carter defeats Gerald Ford)

1972: Redskins 35, New York Jets 17 … Republicans keep it (Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern)

1968: Minnesota 27, Redskins 13 … Democrats lose it (Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey)

1964: Redskins 21, Philadelphia 10 … Democrats keep it (Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater)

1960: Cleveland 31, Redskins 10 … Republicans lose it (John Kennedy defeats Nixon)

1956: Redskins 17, Chicago Cardinals 14 … Republicans keep it (Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson)

1952: Pittsburgh 24, Redskins 23 … Democrats lose it (Eisenhower defeats Stevenson)

1948: Redskins 51, Boston Yanks 21 … Democrats keep it (Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey)

1944: Redskins 42, Chi-Pitt 20 … Democrats keep it (Franklin Roosevelt defeats Dewey)

1940: Washington Redskins 37, Pittsburgh 10 … Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie)

1936: Boston Redskins 13, Chicago Cardinals 10 … Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Alfred Landon)

1932: Boston Braves 7, Chicago Bears 7 … Republicans lose it (Roosevelt defeats Herbert Hoover)

-By Jim Kuhnhenn, Knight Ridder Newspapers

AUSPICIOUS EARS?

In the meantime, on the West Coast, the San Jose Mercury News turned to four well-regarded Asian fortunetellers for their take on the presidential contest.

“In many Asian countries, divination is a respected calling. Important financial and personal decisions are often made in consultation with soothsayers, who are addressed as `masters’ and `teachers.’ Unlike Western fortunetellers who read tarot cards and palms, many Asian prognosticators specialize in reading faces,” writes reporter K. Oanh Ha.

Bush has “auspicious ears,” says one. Kerry’s “long and graceful” nose means he can sniff out problems says another.

As for whom the tellers say might win? They split, two saying Bush, two saying Kerry.

-By Lori Aratani, San Jose Mercury News

BOO! IT’S A POLITICIAN

Sen. John Kerry poked his head into the press cabin of his campaign plane Sunday night, remarking on the plastic bats hanging over the doorways and the lighted skeleton over the bar as well as the flight attendants’ orange-and-black witch outfits. “You guys look great,” Kerry said with a broad grin.

(Aside: What would Bill Clinton have said? Grrrrr.)

Asked what he was dressed as, Kerry shrugged. “My costume is future president – I don’t know.”

Kerry was puzzled, turning to a flight attendant. “I was looking for my pumpkins,” he said, referring to the gourds he purchased in Ohio earlier in the month. Apparently the candidate was unaware that the FAA had cited the charter company for “unsecured pumpkins” and ordered them removed. “I got them so we could carve them and have them tonight – jack-o-lanterns,” Kerry said.

It’s probably just as well. Would the Secret Service have allowed knives around a possible president?

-Thomas Fitzgerald, Knight Ridder Washington Bureau

THE KINGS AND QUEENS OF MEAN

Think Bush and Kerry’s TV ads are getting mean? Think they’re really lashing out at each other? Well, that’s nothing compared to the local political ads, at least in Philadelphia.

Most of this year’s ads don’t tell you what office the candidates are running for or in which district. Just what horrible things they’ve done.

Apparently all we need to know – whether we live her in district or three states away – is that a vote for Ginny Schrader is apparently a vote for Hezbollah and al-Qaeda. Allyson Schwartz, it seems, is left of Lenin. Lois Murphy, we’re told, is pro-Taliban and – it gets worse – pro-Sierra Club!

Desperate times, as the cliche goes, call for desperate measures.

-By Ellen Dunkel, Knight Ridder Digital

LEAST-ANTICIPATED TRIP TO HAWAII. EVER

Those anguished cries you heard the other night? Those were reporters on other campaign planes convulsed with professional jealousy upon hearing news that Vice President Cheney would campaign in Hawaii.

Cell phones and Blackberries of Cheney reporters immediately started ringing.

“You (expletive deleted) are going to Hawaii?” was the typical incredulous question.

Yes. But that’s not a good thing. Really.

The Hawaii trip comes at the end of a five-rally day in five states. Air Force Two will take off from Albuquerque at 6:20 p.m. for the seven-hour flight to Honolulu.

Cheney goes to the rally, gives a speech, turns around and gets back on the plane for a flight to Colorado Springs – where he goes to a rally.

Yes, we (expletive deleted) are going to Hawaii. Party on.

-Matt Stearns, Kansas City Star

LEAST-ANTICIPATED TRIP TO HAWAII. EVER. PART II.

It’s sort of like “Survivor” in the press seats on Air Force Two. While most reporters went to a rally at one stop Saturday, one was deputized to go to a bookstore to stock up on reading material for the Long Flight to Hawaii.

Supposedly, movies will play on the Long Flight.

So far, all for one, one for all.

But at some point, it’s bound to get ugly: Who’s going to get the middle seats?

I’m clinging to my window seat like it’s the last chopper out of Saigon, baby.

-Matt Stearns, Kansas City Star

YOU CALL THAT A SCREAM?

Lately, Vice President Cheney has been mocking Democratic nominee John Kerry for being too weak-kneed to stand up to Howard Dean during the Democratic primaries. At a couple Cheney rallies, at the mention of Dean’s name, people in the crowd have issued long, anguished yelps, a reference to Dean’s candidacy-dooming scream the night he lost the Iowa caucuses.

In Nazareth, Pa., Saturday morning, Cheney was unimpressed with one supporter’s Dean impersonation.

“That’s a Howard Dean scream, I guess,” Cheney said. “That’s kind of a weak one, if you ask me.”

-Matt Stearns, Kansas City Star

DICK CHENEY, HOMEBOY

Even Vice President Cheney, hardly considered a backslapping retail politician, will stoop to the occasional local pander.

In Zanesville, Ohio, on Saturday, Cheney, who hails from Wyoming, told a campaign rally that his great-grandfather was from Defiance, Ohio, and served in the 21st Ohio Regiment during the Civil War. Cheney also said his grandfather was born there.

“So we claim Ohio roots,” Cheney said. “Seems to me you all would want to send a homeboy back to the White House.”

Word.

-Matt Stearns, Kansas City Star

MORTALITY, PART 1

Chief Justice William Rehnquist missed Monday’s session of the Supreme Court. News reports that he is receiving chemotherapy has experts speculating that he has a rare, more serious form of thyroid cancer.

Both liberals and conservatives like to point out that it’s been 10 years since a new justice – Stephen Breyer – was named to the court, the longest interval since James Monroe was president in 1823.

So the nation is due for several vacancies in the next four years. So the president who appoints those justices will influence the course of this country for much longer than his term.

As far as I’m concerned, none of the five justices who stopped the vote counting in Florida in 2000 deserves to be on the court. In a remarkable story in last month’s Vanity Fair magazine, which hasn’t gotten enough attention, clerks to the justices broke silence and talked to reporters. They say that the five decided the outcome in advance and then came up with (extremely tenuous) reasons for it, sacrificing both integrity and credibility for politics.

When both liberals and conservatives discuss the makeup of the court, they often focus on abortion, gay rights and school prayer. But as People for the American Way has detailed, a more conservative court could undo a lot more rights than those.

For one thing, the president wouldn’t be stopped, as he was this year, from indefinitely detaining U.S. citizens without any rights on American soil by naming them “enemy combatants.” Who knows how many other rights we would lose during this eternal war?

Also at risk: affirmative action, voting rights, protection against discrimination, the right to organize, patients’ rights against HMOs, protection of pension and retirement benefits, environmental protection, disability rights, protection against age, gender, race and religious discrimination, separation of church and state, laws against sexual harassment.

We elect more than a president Tuesday. Much more.

-Carol Towarnicky, Philadelphia Daily News

MORTALITY, PART 2

Doctors in Paris say Yasser Arafat’s condition has stabilized, but his collapse last week reminds us that he is mortal and will be gone some day.

If that day should be soon, there will be chaos among the Palestinians.

And it’s clear that the United States is way out of position to take advantage of new leadership among the Palestinians to help negotiate a peace.

Few would argue that Arafat was interested in peace following his choice of violence over the peace process in 2000. But the Bush administration’s decision to first ignore the Israeli-Palestinian situation and then to take Israel’s side in one dispute after another has made matters much worse.

Former national security adviser Brent Scowcroft – who worked for President George H.W. Bush – went so far as to say that the current President Bush has been “mesmerized” by Israel’s prime minister Ariel Sharon.

“Sharon just has him wrapped around his little finger,” Scowcroft said. … “When there is a suicide attack (followed by a reprisal) Sharon calls the president and says, `I’m on the front line of terrorism,’ and the president says, `Yes, you are.’ He (Sharon) has been nothing but trouble.”

Israel doesn’t need the United States as an uncritical ally; it needs America as an “honest broker” to bring a final settlement to that region, one that includes a viable Palestinian state and security for Israel. The Bush administration has squandered American credibility in this area, and it’s hard to imagine he could ever restore it.

That’s another critical reason for a “fresh start.”

-Carol Towarnicky, Philadelphia Daily News

CLICK

There’s no question there will be a record turnout Tuesday, just a question of how much of a record.

I believe there is no downside to that, and not only because these new voters tend to support John Kerry.

Elections are not only about the moment, but also about the next election(s). Candidates know who voted last time, and in what numbers, and they are certain to pay more attention to the concerns of people who they know represent a sizable voting bloc. What will happen in this nation if politicians pay attention, not only to big contributors, but to ordinary voters? For sure, the phenomenon of internet fundraising has impacted theories of campaign finance, balancing out – at least somewhat – the power of big givers and a great many smaller ones.

And the record number of volunteers in this election suggests that Americans are more engaged, feel less helpless, and are less cynical than they have been in a long time. That may diminish somewhat after tomorrow, but not entirely. Once stirred, that energy will be focused on other parts of the community. Get ready.

George W. Bush and his administration pointedly ignored a huge opportunity to bring America together after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Nearly everyone, including this diehard liberal Democrat, was ready to follow him, and pitch in to make the country safer, and our people more united. I remember thinking at the time about a discussion our editorial board had with Robert Putnam, the author of “Bowling Alone,” several years before. Putnam talked about the golden age of civic involvement, in the early part of the 20th century, when organizations like the Y, the Boy and Girl Scouts, Kiwanis, etc. were founded. He spoke about expecting a “click,” a moment when Americans would come together again and be willing to sacrifice for their communities and rebuild our social capital.

I thought Sept. 11 would provide that “click.” It might have, if Bush had enlisted us in a movement to become independent of foreign oil, or to involve ourselves in endeavors to make our country stronger internally and to unite us. Instead, he told Americans to go shopping, be afraid, and shut up if they didn’t agree with him. We also now know that Bush ‘ Co. were determined from the very beginning to use the fear over Sept. 11 to push through the rest of their agenda.

So now I’m thinking that this election might be the “click” Putnam predicted, if we harness the empowering feeling we get when we get out and work for what we believe in.

Some GOTV (Get Out the Vote) tidbits:

I got back from the grocery store Sunday to find not only the usual letter from my precinct captains but a note from MoveON telling me to make sure that I vote, but also to tell the MoveON person at the polls when I do, so he or she will not waste time sending somebody out to find me later in the day.

A request went out over a community listserv Friday for 50 volunteers to get on a bus and be driven to north Jersey where they would each get a van to drive back to Philadelphia for use in transporting voters to and from the polls.

In suburban Montgomery County, Pa., they’re turning away volunteers – or, rather, sending them to Republican areas. The Election Protection project, which, until recently, was pleading for volunteers, now says they don’t need any more.

And it’s beginning to look as if Republican openness about wanting to suppress voter turnout in minority, urban areas is beginning to backfire. It’s losing court cases and it’s got Democrats even more energized and determined.

As Bill Clinton likes to put it: If one side wants you to vote and the other side wants to keep you from voting, vote for the side that wants you to vote.

Finally, this e-mail from a volunteer in Florida to Talking Points Memo confirms that something historic is happening.

“At today’s early vote in the College Hill district of East Tampa – a heavily Democratic, 90 percent black community – we had 879 voters wait an average of five hours to cast their vote. People were there until four hours after they closed (as long as they’re in line by 5, they can vote).

Here’s what was so moving:

We hardly lost anyone. People stood outside for an hour, in the blazing sun, then inside for another four hours as the line snaked around the library, slowly inching forward. It made Disneyland look like speed-walking. Some waited six hours. To cast one vote. And EVERYBODY felt that it was crucial, that their vote was important, and that they were important.”

-Carol Towarnicky, Philadelphia Daily News

YOU PROMISED BLOOD IN THE STREETS AND ALL WE GOT WAS THIS LOUSY VIDEO

The reaction to Osama’s October surprise has been as divided as the presidential election in general. The taped message will obviously help Bush because it reminds Americans that terrorism is a real threat that Kerry just doesn’t know how to fight. The message will obviously help Kerry because if reminds Americans that Bush took his eye off the ball by going to Iraq instead of finishing of OBL. Bottom line: It’s a wash. Most people have made up their minds, and the tape won’t affect them one way or another; the few undecideds won’t be able to process this any better than they have anything else.

Two things in the tape bear commenting on. One is the notion – expressed by William Safire, among others – that bin Laden seems almost conciliatory; that’s not something a winning general does. He also is vehement in his denunciation of Bush and complaints of how intrusive America has been (elections in Afghanistan went on without bloodshed, alas!). I can’t see this as anything but good for Bush in the election.

The other thing is that if you really listen to the tape, OBL is trying to broaden his message to bring in “moderate Islam” instead of just relying on fundamentalist fanatics. This shows what a real threat he is and will remain. If anyone had doubts that the fight against terror will remain the biggest challenge we face in the foreseeable future, this should remove them. I have my beliefs about which presidential candidate can best meet that threat, and you undoubedly have yours.

Osama also puts front and center the issue that has barely been commented on in this race: Israel. Our commitment to that country will be tested as never before.

-By Leo Morris, Fort Wayne News-Sentinel

DIVIDED AMERICA

To expand a little on something I mentioned earlier, the possible effect of the democratization of information on the commonweal after the election:

Because of wall-to-wall election coverage for the last year in both the “old media” – i.e., newspapers and TV – and “new media” – i.e., cable, talk radio and the blogosphere – there has been unprecedent interest in this election, which could result in a record turnout. This is both good and bad.

It is good because democracy thrives on the informed consent of the governed; the more people who participate, the healthier our republic. It is bad because it will leave the nation more bitterly divided than ever. At least half of the electorate on Wednesday morning (or later, depending) will be furiously disappointed, and the first and most difficult job of the president, whoever wins, will be to knit the nation back together. This won’t require something as grandiose and impossible as “healing our wounds”; but we at least have to start pursuing, more or less, the same goals.

This coming-back-together was once much easier. Yes, this campaign has been bitter and divisive, but it’s not as if there’s no historical precedent; past campaigns have been equally contentious, some of them more so. But the fight was generally among members of the political elite.

(Some of us have a naive belief that the country started out with a system designed to get ordinary Americans into politics for a time, then back into real life; but the truth is that we’ve had a political ruling class right from the beginning.)

The electorate listened to the verbal battles or – more likely until recently – read about them. They took sides, but not with such an intense passion that they couldn’t move on afterwards. This has been the case even though the nation has pretty much always been divided down the middle – it’s the rare presidential winner in our history who won by 60 percent or more, the rare loser who got 40 percent or less.

Now a greater percentage of Americans have become totally immersed in the process, and it will be harder to leave it all behind after the election. As the blogosphere becomes more important – and it WILL – that means we will be following our own agendas rather than just accepting the scant information let through by the gatekeepers. We are becoming increasingly suspicious of those who act as filters in the news process and, frankly, their performance in this election has not inspired confidence. Whether George Bush wins or loses this election, a continuing story will be how many in the mainstream press were perceived to have finally given up all pretension of objectivity and actively tried to get Kerry elected. This perception, unfortunately, is not too far off the mark.

One of the functions that has been performed by the press in our past has been to act as a unifying agent, however partisan it might become at times. We had a common narrative that journalists helped tell. Whatever else we pursued, we had an “American story.”

I don’t see the press performing that function any longer, and it’s hard to see where it will come from. The blogosphere, perhaps, as it matures; there are signs that some sites are already acting as filters and gatekeepers. (Americans like to have things sorted for them; how else to explain the continued success of America online in the wild world of the Internet?)

But I’m skeptical about this, too. Most of the really big bloggers are successful in other areas – they are journalists or lawyers or professors. There are signs already that we’re drifting into an elite blogging class as well, and I think the new reality will make us suspicious of them, too.

Perhaps a unifying force or agent will come from somewhere we don’t even suspect now. I hope so. Or perhaps we are destined to remain fragmented. Considering the challenges we face in the 21st century, I pray not.

-By Leo Morris, Fort Wayne News-Sentinel

MOORE’S PROMISE APPROACHES ELECTION DAY DEADLINE

You do recall Michael Moore’s July promise in Boston?

You know – when he said a nationally known broadcaster was told, at the behest of Dick Cheney’s office, to watch his or her on-air tone of voice. This – allegedly – was at the start of the Iraq war.

And Moore vowed to name this broadcaster on his Web site.

But he didn’t.

So I asked him about it in New York at the Republican National Convention. That’s when he said he was still talking with the broadcaster and hoped to have his or her identity out in the open by Election Day.

Well, friends, it’s election eve, and still no word of the broadcaster’s identity appears on Moore’s Web site. So I called Moore’s spokeswoman this morning, and she said the filmmaker is busy pumping up the electorate for Election Day – but that she’ll try to ask him about his July promise.

Will advise on any progress.

-By Adam Smeltz, Knight Ridder Washington Bureau

(c) 2004, Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.