Bush leads in battleground states he won in 2000, poll finds

WASHINGTON – President Bush leads in all of the battleground states he carried in 2000, but… WASHINGTON – President Bush leads in all of the battleground states he carried in 2000, but he faces a tightening contest to repeat his wins in Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll released Wednesday.

Less than two weeks before Election Day, the survey offered a detailed look at the shifting state-by-state battleground where the presidency will be decided. If Bush holds all the battleground states he won in 2000 – labeled red states for their color-coding on election maps – he will win re-election. If he loses red states with 10 electoral votes or more, he has to win away “blue” states carried by Democrat Al Gore four years ago.

Bush leads in seven states that he carried closely in 2000. In Missouri, he led by 49 percent to 44 percent. In West Virginia, he also led by 49-44 percent. In Colorado, he led by 49-43 percent. And in Nevada, Bush led by 52-42 percent.

But Bush leads Sen. John Kerry in Ohio by only 46-45 percent, a statistically insignificant margin that means the race is effectively a dead heat. It’s a much tighter race there than it was in mid-September, before the presidential debates, when Bush led by 7 percentage points.

In both Florida and New Hampshire, the Republican incumbent leads the Democratic senator by only 48-45 percent, a 3-point edge that leaves the race in those states within the poll’s margin of error and makes them toss-ups. In September, Bush led in New Hampshire by 9 percentage points and in Florida by 4.

In another sign that suggests Bush doesn’t have his base states wrapped up, less than a majority of likely voters in Ohio and New Hampshire believe Bush is doing a good job as president. His job-approval rating was 49 percent in New Hampshire and 47 percent in Ohio, but it was 50 percent or above in Colorado, Missouri and West Virginia. Some analysts say that whenever an incumbent president’s job-approval rating is below 50 percent, he’s unlikely to win a majority of votes.

The poll of between 625 and 630 likely voters in each state was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling ‘ Research from Oct. 14-16, after the three presidential debates, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Nevada poll was conducted in conjunction with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Review-Journal.com. The Florida poll, released Tuesday, was conducted by Mason-Dixon for a consortium of Florida news outlets including The Miami Herald. It included the same margin of error.

“Bush’s red-state base is not completely secure,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. “In several of these states he appears to have the edge, particularly Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and West Virginia. But in Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio, he still faces a tough race.”

Indeed, one of the most telling signs that Bush still faces a challenge in his own base states is that he hasn’t yet won over a majority of likely voters in any of the states except Nevada. At least 6 percent of likely voters remain undecided in each state – and history suggests that a majority of them could decide in the end to vote against an incumbent they already know and can’t bring themselves to support.

While some analysts focus most on an incumbent’s job-approval rating, others, such as Democratic pollster Fred Yang, believe the question of war could trump job approval this time. Yang suggested Wednesday that some voters might give Bush low marks for his job performance based on domestic complaints about the economy or health care but still vote for him on larger questions of war or national security.

“This is not a typical election year and I think (voters) are separating his regular job from Iraq,” Yang said.

The poll shows that war and national security are the major reasons for Bush’s lead in the red states. Voters in all of the states ranked terrorism and homeland security as their top concern. A majority in each state said either man would be equally effective in preventing terrorist attacks. But among those who did think safety from terrorism would vary depending upon who is president, Bush was chosen by a 3-1 margin.

“Let’s get them before they get us,” said Sam Knopp, 48, a mechanical engineer from Lakewood, Colo., who supports Bush. “John Kerry is of a mind to wait for them to do something else, and even then I don’t think he’ll act.”

Some preferred Kerry’s approach, however.

“It’s important that America lead the world, and Bush has snubbed the world,” said Tom Savory, 47, an architect from Denver who planned to vote for Kerry.

Perceived strength is another reason for Bush’s lead.

Voters in most of the states ranked “strong leader” tops among the qualities they were seeking in a president, edging out such other qualities as bringing needed change, being honest and trustworthy, and having a clear stand on the issues. The qualities that ranked lowest included strong religious faith, caring about people and being intelligent.

“He (Bush) has core convictions,” said Debra Nauman, 46, a housewife from Mount Vernon, Ohio. “He believes in right and wrong and the terrorists are evil. … I don’t believe that Kerry has those same core values.”

Iraq divides voters in the red states, though not enough to turn a majority against Bush.

A majority in each state approves of his decision to go to war, with about a third in each state strongly approving the decision. Yet between 43 and 46 percent disapprove of the decision, with about a third strongly disapproving.

A majority in each state sees the Iraq war as either a major or minor part of the war on terrorism, while between 40 and 45 percent see it as separate.

The candidates have starkly different views – Bush has defined the Iraq war as a battle in the broader war on terror, while Kerry has called it a distraction. Voters are also sharply divided.

“I would rather have a war against the terrorists fought somewhere else than in our country,” said Ann Melendy, 53, a homemaker from Brentwood, N. H. “Someday we would have to face them anyway. Better to face them in Iraq than here, even though I know they didn’t do 9-11.”

Genevieve Malenic, 71, a retired nurse from Youngstown, Ohio, countered that she supports Kerry because “he’ll do a better job … getting out of Iraq as best we can and going after Osama bin Laden.”

Voters appeared anxious about jobs in several states but did not give either candidate an edge on the issue.

In Colorado, Missouri and New Hampshire, as many voters say jobs are hard to find as say they are plentiful. And in two states, a majority calls jobs hard to find in their communities – 55 percent in Ohio and 63 percent in West Virginia.

Across the red map, voters split almost evenly over which candidate would do a better job on the economy.

“It’s very bad. Lots of people are out of work,” said Hazel Carl, 83, a retired food-service worker in Springfield, Ohio, who supports Kerry. “A lot of jobs, they’ve been taken away … seem to go to China. I believe he’ll do a better job at bringing them back.”

Mike Grosso, 21, who works at a grocery store in Moundsville, W.Va., was more upbeat about the economy and Bush. He remembered fondly that Bush tried to use tariffs to help the steel industry so vital to West Virginia’s coal miners.

“It was real bad for a while but now it’s looking up,” he said. “It’s getting easier to find jobs than it used to be. Bush will do a better job.”

Voters are split over their motives.

Among Bush supporters, 87 percent said they are voting for him while 10 percent said they are voting against Kerry. Among Kerry supporters, just 63 percent said their vote was primarily for Kerry while 33 percent said their vote was primarily against Bush.

For George Shaul, 79, a retired painter from St. Louis, Bush isn’t up to the job. “Bush just ain’t got no kind of idea,” he said.

For Stuart Gilman, 70, a computer-systems manager from Derry, N.H., it’s his dislike of Kerry that makes it easy to vote for Bush. “I just don’t like him,” said Gilman. “I like some of the things he stands for, but I just don’t like him.”

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(For more on the poll, go to www.krwashington.com)

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(Knight Ridder Newspapers correspondents James Kuhnhenn, Charles Homans and Camille Ricketts contributed to this report.)

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(c) 2004, Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.