Ambiguity in stats leaves room for cohabitat

Did you know that couples who live together before they’re married are twice as likely to get… Did you know that couples who live together before they’re married are twice as likely to get divorced?

Since I’ve moved in with my boyfriend, every week, someone has quoted this statistic to me. In fact, under my grandmother’s definition — and that of many “well-meaning” people — I am living in sin. God Himself disagrees with the very basics of my lifestyle, and His disagreement is evident right here in this statistic: I’m now twice as likely to end up divorced.

I’ve learned to approach statistics with caution, especially those reported by any group that takes an obvious political or moral stance. My curiosity piqued; I decided to search online for the truth behind the statistics.

My search yielded a frightening number of religiously tinged “factual” pages. Within the bounds of these pages, statistics were used freely. The same few names and studies were repeated constantly within the Christian marriage industry. And it is an industry: Hundreds of godly marriage and pre-marriage counseling services exist.

Many of the statistics on these pages were similar to the dire prediction above: I have little chance at a happy marriage or good health; my future children have a higher chance of being dysfunctional

I couldn’t help but feel annoyed. Where were these dismal statistics coming from? Most of the pages only made a vague reference to a U.S. Census study. But no links and no context were provided.

Finally, a page offered a link to an actual Center for Disease Control study, titled “Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce and Remarriage in the United States.” I was surprised to find that the potentially negative effects of cohabitation on marriage received little attention in this huge study. In fact, the statistic I’d seen was based on one little probability within a huge table of variables, which was part of a larger study that intended to take a larger look at marriage and divorce trends. The table included probabilities on increased risk of divorce based on region, age at marriage, level of education, race and many other characteristics. There it was at the bottom of the table — the comparison in divorce rates for those pure souls who never cohabited and those who chose to sign the lease in blood, with two names.

I will admit the difference was significant. But it wasn’t 200 percent higher. The probability of a marriage dissolution within 15 years for a couple who didn’t live together before marriage was .38. And for those who did cohabit? A .51 chance.

So what possible variables could have caused this increased chance? Statistically, people with lower levels of education — and thus, a likely lower level of income — are far more likely to cohabit than those with more education and higher income. According to a study conducted in 2000 by Bumpass and Lu, in 1995, 57 percent of women with 12 or fewer years of education had cohabited verses 37 percent of college graduates. The 2000 U.S. Census study shows that the difference in divorce probability between those who had not graduated from high school and those who had completed college was exactly the same as that between couples who had cohabited and those who had not. Lower incomes, which are often a result of lower education, also provided a steep increase in divorce rates. Cohabitation and lower education/income go hand in hand because it is just cheaper in the short run to live together and split rent.

Even the census study, though, doesn’t give a plain answer. Most organizations that discuss the statistics are biased in one way or another — almost everyone has an agenda. For nearly every statistic that’s reported, an opposite conclusion is drawn a few years later. Organizations tend to choose the reported statistic that best supports the opinion they already hold. While the facts may lie in the numbers, there’s plenty of room for interpretation between number and written word.

So I’ll go on living my life in my lovely two bedroom, more-spacious-than-I-can-afford-alone apartment, regardless of the people outside who shake their fists and numbers at me.

Ginger McCall happily cohabits with her “domestic partner,” Dave, and pound puppy, Emma. She can be reached at fightingdestiny@gmail.com.