Bush scores narrow leads in 6 swing states that went to Gore in 2000

WASHINGTON- President Bush is cutting into John Kerry’s base, leading or drawing virtually… WASHINGTON- President Bush is cutting into John Kerry’s base, leading or drawing virtually even with the Massachusetts senator in six of seven swing states that Democrat Al Gore won four years ago, according to a new Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll and two other single-state polls.

In Iowa, Bush led Kerry by 48-42 percent; in Minnesota, by 46-44; in New Mexico, by 47-43; in Oregon, by 47-43; and in Wisconsin by 46-44.

Kerry held a razor-thin lead of 45-44 percent in Pennsylvania. In Michigan, he led by 47-41, his strongest state among the seven.

Those results emerged from a series of polls for Knight Ridder and MSNBC done by Mason-Dixon Research and Polling. In addition, Mason-Dixon surveyed Minnesota for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio, and polled New Mexico for the Santa Fe New Mexican and KOB Television.

While Bush held a slim lead in most of these key battleground states, each state poll was close enough to be considered a statistical tie. Mason-Dixon surveyed between 624 and 629 likely voters in each state from Sept. 11 to Sept. 16; the polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

All polls are but snapshots in time. Election Day is six weeks away and voter sentiment may well shift. In the meantime, all swing states remain sufficiently close that the coming Bush-Kerry debates could be decisive, especially when combined with efforts by each side to turn out their voters.

Still, the new state polling- combined with a Knight Ridder-MSNBC survey announced Sunday of six swing states that Bush carried in 2000- offers the most detailed look so far this year at 13 battleground states that probably will decide the presidential election. The 14th swing state- Florida- couldn’t be surveyed accurately last week because of disruption from recent hurricanes.

Taken together, the surveys show that Bush appears to be holding his base in most of the six swing states he won in 2000 while making inroads in many of the swing states that Gore carried.

“As of now, George W. Bush clearly holds the upper hand in the Electoral College battle,” said Brad Coker, who conducted the polls for Mason-Dixon. “There is still plenty of time for John Kerry to turn things around, as Bush’s margins are hardly insurmountable in most of the battleground states.

“But with the election focusing primarily on national defense, Kerry is playing on a field that has historically favored Republicans, particularly incumbent Republican presidents.”

One key trend is that terrorism and national security topped voters’ list of concerns in Republican swing states and came in first or a close second for voters in the Gore-2000 swing states. Throughout all these states, voters preferred Bush over Kerry to keep them safe from terrorist attack by roughly 3-1.

“The war on terror is my top priority,” said Joe Arresto, 49, an account executive in Warren, Mich. “Bush has shown strong leadership, strong decision making. Yes, there are things that haven’t gone according to plan, but I think Bush’s decisiveness has been key.” Even when voters turned to the economy, where Democrats hoped to gain broader support, they split almost evenly between Bush and Kerry.

“I don’t think the president has all that much influence on the economy,” said Norma Mottet, 78, a secretary in Bettendorf, Iowa. “I just think it’s going to do what it’s going to do.” Simple personal likability divides the two candidates, too.

Bush’s supporters like him more than Kerry backers like their candidate. In the seven swing states that tilted to Gore four years ago, roughly 7 in 10 Bush supporters said they’d vote for him simply because they like him, and only 1 in 10 said they’d back Bush because they dislike Kerry.

By comparison, just 4 in 10 Kerry voters said they’d vote for him because they like him, while 3 in 10 said they’d do so because they dislike Bush.

Bush’s opposition to gay marriage also may help explain his appeal. A majority of likely voters supported banning gay marriage in the five Gore-2000 states that were questioned about it last week: Iowa, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Voters split over the war in Iraq.

In interviews, those who supported Bush tended to see the Iraq war as part of the broader war on terrorism.

“We have to fight the terrorists over there. If we don’t, we’ll have to fight them here,” said Louann Milledge, 64, a homemaker in Eau Claire, Wis. Those who supported Kerry tended to see Iraq as a costly and unnecessary mistake that distracted the United States from the war on terrorism.

“Bush moved us from Afghanistan into Iraq, which was ridiculous when they posed no danger to us,” said Daniel Peroni, 74, a retiree in Commerce Township, Mich.

One issue that isn’t a major factor is the sniping between the two sides and in the news media over the candidates’ military service during the Vietnam War. Four out of 5 voters said it wouldn’t influence their decision.

The poll found that Ralph Nader’s independent candidacy also isn’t a major factor in any of the seven Gore-2000 swing states. The surveys showed he wasn’t drawing enough support in any of them to alter the Bush-Kerry outcome, and interviews suggested that many former Nader supporters wouldn’t vote for him again.

“Last time I voted for Nader and Bush got in,” said Donna Duerr, 58, a small-business owner in Leon, Iowa. She plans to vote for Kerry.

Kerry partisans could draw hope from several signs of discontent in the seven states if their candidate can convert it into rejection of the incumbent president.

A plurality or majority in four states- Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin- said jobs were hard to find in their communities. In Iowa, only a small plurality said jobs were available.

“Jobs are hard to find, especially jobs that will sustain a family,” said Lana Caywood, 49, a part-time teacher who’s looking for full-time work in Platteville, Wis. “Kerry would do a better job on the economy.”

What’s more, a plurality of voters in three states- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Oregon- thought the country is on the wrong track. Voters in two others- Iowa and Wisconsin- split evenly.

Said Georgette Fischer, 61, who works for a wholesale florist in Philadelphia: “Bush is not bringing the boys home from overseas, the economy is going down the tubes, everything is going to pot.”

A look at the seven states:

– IOWA, seven electoral votes.

As of now, this is the Gore-2000 swing state most vulnerable to going to Bush.

Iowa voters ranked terrorism and the economy equally atop their list of concerns. They approved of the decision to go to war in Iraq by 50-44 percent, and were evenly split, 45-45, over whether the country is on the right track or wrong track.

They preferred Bush over Kerry to defend against terrorism by 29-11 percent, with 57 percent saying there’s no difference. They preferred Bush over Kerry to handle the economy by 36-32 percent, with 10 percent trusting either and 17 percent trusting neither.

– MICHIGAN, 17 electoral votes.

As of now, this is the most solidly Democratic of the Gore-2000 swing states.

A plurality of 48 percent disapproved of Bush’s job performance, his worst standing in these seen states. The economy was Michigan voters’ top concern. They thought jobs were hard to find rather than available by 58-27 percent. Asked who would better handle the economy, they preferred Kerry over Bush by 35-33 percent.

They disapproved of the Iraq war by 50-46 percent. They preferred Bush over Kerry to defend against terrorism by 29-13 percent, with 54 percent saying there’s no difference.

– MINNESOTA, 10 electoral votes.

Minnesotans ranked the economy as their top concern, and preferred Bush over Kerry to handle it by 45-44 percent. They ranked terrorism and homeland security second, and preferred Bush over Kerry on this issue by 56-35 percent. They listed Iraq third, and preferred Bush over Kerry by 51-37 percent.

– NEW MEXICO, five electoral votes.

Gore defeated Bush in New Mexico by 365 votes in 2000, but New Mexico voters now preferred Bush over Kerry by 47-43 percent, with 3 percent for Nader or other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Bush has solid support from his base, as 87 percent of Republicans supported him. New Mexico Democrats were more split, with 73 percent backing Kerry and 20 percent behind Bush. Independents were also split, with 49 percent for Bush and 29 percent for Kerry. White voters split 59-32 percent for Bush, and Hispanics split 62-27 percent for Kerry.

– OREGON, seven electoral votes.

Oregon voters ranked the economy as their top concern, slightly ahead of terrorism. They said jobs were hard to find by a margin of 53-32 percent, and narrowly preferred Bush over Kerry on the economy by 34-33 percent.

On terrorism, they preferred Bush over Kerry by 30-12 percent. They disapproved of the Iraq war, 52-46 percent. They approved of Bush’s job performance by 50-44 percent, but thought the country was on the wrong track by 49-40 percent.

– PENNSYLVANIA, 21 electoral votes.

Pennsylvanians ranked the economy as their top concern. They said jobs were hard to find by 52-33 percent and preferred Kerry over Bush on the economy by 36-32 percent, his strongest support on this measure among the seven states.

They preferred Bush over Kerry to defend against terrorist attack by 29-11 percent.

Pennsylvanians narrowly disapproved of the Iraq war by 48-47 percent and thought the country was on the wrong track by 47-42 percent.

They approved of banning gay marriage by 54-31 percent.

– WISCONSIN, 10 electoral votes.

Wisconsin voters listed the economy as their top issue. They thought jobs were hard to find by 46-40 percent and preferred Kerry on the economy by 34-33 percent. They approved of banning gay marriage by 56-32 percent.

They approved of the Iraq war by 48-46 percent and preferred Bush over Kerry to defend against terrorist attack by 30-10 percent.

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(Knight Ridder Newspapers correspondent Camille Ricketts contributed to this report.)

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