Oscar Bracketology

They’re almost here: the March Madness for those of you who live for the Vanity Fair… They’re almost here: the March Madness for those of you who live for the Vanity Fair Hollywood issue. Without further ado, I share with you my bracket picks. Here’s hoping you win your office Oscar pools.

Sweet Sixteen

Actors’ Division

Daniel Day-Lewis (No. 1) vs. John C. Reilly (No. 4)

John C. Reilly was in every movie that came out in 2002. (OK, it was just “The Hours,” “Gangs of New York,” “The Good Girl” and “Chicago,” for which he was nominated for his role as sad sack Amos Hart.) Martin Scorsese had to beg Daniel Day-Lewis to step away from the cobbler’s bench and play the deliciously villainous William “Bill the Butcher” Cudding. Doesn’t it stand to reason that Reilly would have the edge? Alas, no. Ears, noses and Oscars are the trophies of the day for Day-Lewis.

Julianne Moore (No. 2) vs. Richard Gere (No. 3)

Much like her husband in “The Hours,” Julianne Moore was in almost every movie that came out in 2002. Moore, whose finely nuanced performances in “Far from Heaven” and “The Hours” – both repressed housewives, both completely different – seem to be the textbook definitions of the “less is more” style of acting. “But – but – Richard Gere learned to tap dance,” you say. “He sings! He has shiny silver hair! He has the Dalai Lama on his side!” And indeed the snubbed Gere does, when he trounces the doubly nominated Moore in this early round bout.

Directors’ Division

Rob Marshall (No. 1) vs. Martin Scorsese (No. 4)

Why would Martin Scorsese get a No. 4 seed? How could the man who brought the world “Taxi Driver” and “Goodfellas” be ranked so low? We aren’t sure either. All we know is that even though Pittsburgh native (Squirrel Hill, to be precise) Rob Marshall has that most elusive of Hollywood assets right now – “heat” – Scorsese could have directed “Chicago” in his sleep.

Stephen Daldry (No. 2) vs. Roman Polanski (No. 3)

Roman Polanski can’t be faulted for lack of trying: Secreted straight from LAX by stretch Escalade, as Polanski stepped out onto the red carpet, true to their word, he was apprehended by a phalanx of Los Angeles police officers who took him straight to the county pen. Steven Daldry, nominated for “The Hours,” takes it.

Picture Division

“Chicago” (No. 1) vs. “The Pianist” (No. 4)

Sure, both movies have music, but does “The Pianist,” a movie about a Jewish Chopin-playing concert pianist who escapes Nazi Germany by sheer force of will and good fortune have rhinestones, prison mamas and a musical number with John C. Reilly, the man from whom all good things come? No, it does not. “Chicago” takes it.

“Gangs of New York” (No. 2) vs. “The Hours” (No. 3)

In “Adaptation” (up, incidentally, for Best Adapted Screenplay), screenwriter Charlie Kaufman says, “Why can’t there just be a movie about flowers?” Obviously, “The Hours” screenwriter David Hare said the same thing about “The Hours,” saying, “Why can’t there just be a movie about three lesbians who talk about writing?” Yeah, there can be, but three chatty lesbians are no match for a psychotic butcher, his vengeful ward and the city they inhabit.

Miscellaneous Division

Queen Latifah (No. 1) vs. Steve Martin (No. 4)

Steve Martin, his second time hosting the big show, is Hollywood royalty – but he’s still not a Queen. All hail Dana Owens, one of two rap artists-turned-Oscar nominees in 2003.

Impending war in Iraq (No. 2) vs. Eminem (No. 3)

With war in Iraq a distinct possibility, Oscar telecast producers recognize that some of the presenters and winners just might have a thing or two to say about the situation in the Middle East. Eminem, on the other hand, could probably take that mustachioed sissy Saddam Hussein and make him – and the Oscar voters, all the tuxedo-clad producers outside in the satellite truck, and the teen-age daughters of said tuxedo-clad producers – his bee-yotches. It’s Marshall’s show, y’all. We just watch it.

Elite Eight

Actors’ Division

Daniel Day-Lewis vs. Richard Gere

If they ever sat down for drinks and conversation, here’s what Day-Lewis’s Bill the Butcher might say to Billy Flynn, Gere’s lawyer, from “Chicago:” “Flynn, you smooth-talking F.O.B. nonce, you don’t know your asshole from your earhole when it comes to three things: women, butchering meat and winning Oscars. I’m gonna take that thing and show you who’s really running his city.” And here’s what Flynn might say in reply: “[Whimper].”

Directors’ Division

Martin Scorsese vs. Stephen Daldry

All Daldry thought he had to do was wrangle three talky lesbians, slap a fake nose onto the tallest one and sit back with a mai tai, waiting patiently for his nominations to roll in. Not so, when Scorsese is his competition. It took 20 years for Scorsese to get “Gangs of New York” made, and if Daldry thought he’d win this one without a fight, he was wrong. Scorsese takes it.

Pictures Division

“Chicago” vs. “Gangs of New York”

Scorsese’s love letter to “olde tyme” New York (with its surprise shot of an old New York icon in its final frames) is big and epic. But for every Day-Lewis witticism, Leonardo DiCaprio glower and Scorsese directorial masterstroke in “Gangs of New York,” there’s a Queen Latifah sexual innuendo, a Gere commentary on celebrity and Catherine Zeta-Jones dance number in “Chicago.” And who among us or the Oscar voters doesn’t love sexual innuendo, self-referentiality and scantily clad people bursting into song? Sorry, Marty: “Chicago” takes this one.

Miscellaneous Division

Queen Latifah vs. Eminem

As of press time, Eminem said he wouldn’t be attending the Oscars because he is on vacation. The real reason is that he’s afraid that a real rapper-slash-actress will show him how to get the job done. Even a white boy from Detroit knows how to pay homage to the queen.

Final Four

Actors’/Directors’ Division

Daniel Day-Lewis vs. Martin Scorsese

One might think that Day-Lewis, a man with many great performances still in him, might take it easy on Scorsese, who plucked him from his cobbler’s bench in Florence and handpicked him to play Bill the Butcher. But Scorsese has 25 years of pent-up passion to put into his game. The Academy might have passed him over three times – but they won’t make that mistake a fourth time. Not if Harvey Weinstein has anything to say about it, anyway.

Pictures’/Miscellaneous Division

“Chicago” vs. Queen Latifah

In a matchup like the Day-Lewis/Scorsese “Gangs of New York” bout, Queen Latifah takes on her own picture, but the Queen can’t hold her own against the combined forces of Renee Zellweger, Zeta-Jones, Gere, Reilly and Marshall. In a fight to the finish, Latifah, in her Escada suit and Harry Winston jewels, succumbs to the Windy City juggernaut.

The Final

Martin Scorsese vs. “Chicago”

It’s been a long season for both “Chicago” and the diminutive “Gangs of New York” director, both faring well in the pre-Oscar races like the SAG awards and the Golden Globes. Much rides on the triumphs of either “Chicago” or Scorsese. If “Chicago” takes it – along with the success of “Moulin Rouge!” – it will truly herald the re-emergence of the movie musical. If Scorsese wins the award he so richly deserves, his reputation as a director of the highest echelon will finally be legitimized.

In overtime, after a grueling run, Scorsese’s opus of New York, revenge and poor oral hygiene triumphs over the high-gloss musical. The musical won’t go out of style – but it won’t go home with the title, either.

If not pre-empted by news coverage, the 75th annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC March 23 at 8:30 p.m.