The Pitt News guide to the 2016 presidential candidates

At the close of July, 22 presidential hopefuls — 17 Republicans and five Democrats — had entered the 2016 race. The Pitt News spoke with Jonathan Woon, a political science professor at Pitt, and Bert Rockman, a political science professor at Purdue University, formerly at Pitt, to see who has a chance of winning their party’s nomination.

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton

Who is she? Clinton served as Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013 under Barack Obama. Her tenure was largely scandal-free, barring some controversy over the terrorist attacks on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

Before that, she has also been a Senator from New York, the First Lady of the United States, the First Lady of Arkansas and a practicing lawyer. She also ran unsuccessfully for President in 2008. Currently, the Justice Department is seeking an investigation over her email practices while she was Secretary of State.

Despite the controversy, Clinton is known for her support of Planned Parenthood and abortion rights for women, and for changing her views in support of gay marriage in 2014. Clinton also supports community policing and the Black Lives Matter movement. Last June, Clinton pledged spending $100 billion per year to fight global climate change, and in 2007, she said members of Congress should not take a pay raise until the national minimum wage is raised.

What are her chances? Clinton’s chances at winning the Democratic nomination are excellent, Rockman said, citing her name recognition and her well-funded campaign. “I’d bet on Hillary Clinton being the nominee,” he said.

Woon agreed, noting “at this point, it’s not a certainty, but it’s very, very likely” that Clinton will become the Democratic candidate.

Bernie Sanders

Who is he? Since 2007, Sanders has been the junior Senator from Vermont. He’s one of only two Independents currently in the Senate. Before that, from 1991 to 2007, he held Vermont’s only seat in the House of Representatives, and from 1981 to 1989, he was Mayor of Burlington, Vermont.

A self-described democratic socialist, Sanders has focused on economic issues during his campaign: the top three issues listed on his website are “Income and Wealth Inequality,” “Getting Big Money out of Politics,” and “Creating Decent-Paying Jobs.” In the Senate, he’s expressed support for LGBT rights and climate-change legislation, and he recently introduced a sweeping racial justice platform.

What are his chances? “He has a non-trivial chance,” Woon said, but added that Sanders faces an uphill battle to overtake Clinton. “I think now he’s getting attention because he’s basically the liberal alternative within the Democratic Party.”

According to Rockman, while Sanders is “the only one who can gather enough support to challenge [Clinton],” his campaign’s lack of money might eventually cripple his chances.

“He’s probably got an upper bound,” Rockman said. “He’ll look good in the early going, and he’ll do a respectable second place, but I doubt there’s any state that he’s going to win.”

Martin O’Malley

Who is he? From 2007 to 2015, O’Malley was Governor of Maryland. Before that, he served as Mayor of Baltimore, Maryland and a member of Baltimore City Council. O’Malley has been more consistently liberal than Clinton on issues like same-sex marriage, immigration reform and opposition to the Iraq War. He has supported climate change legislation and Obama’s outreach to Iran and Cuba. On economics, he supports breaking up America’s largest banks and reducing income inequality by increasing taxes on high earners.

What are his chances? “[O’Malley is] a very serious person, but not necessarily a serious candidate,” Rockman said. His obscurity will cripple his campaign, according to Rockman, who noted Barack Obama’s recent joke that “Martin O’Malley went completely unrecognized at a Martin O’Malley campaign event.”

According to Rockman, O’Malley is probably either working his way up to contending for the Vice Presidential nomination or setting the stage to run again in 2020. Woon concurred, saying that, although O’Malley’s ideological positions mean he has the potential to draw support from liberals, he has little chance of overtaking either Sanders or Clinton.

Lincoln Chafee

Who is he? Chafee served as Governor of Rhode Island from 2011 to 2015. Before that, he was a Senator from Rhode Island from 1999 to 2007 — during which time he was a Republican — and the Mayor of Warwick, Rhode Island. As a Republican Senator, commentators remarked on Chafee‘s relatively liberal views, and he left the GOP in 2007.

Like Clinton, Chafee supports LGBT rights and women’s reproductive rights. In April, Chafee said the widening disparity of wealth is hurting the middle class and reinstituted a pay-as-you-go tax system in Rhode Island that included both tax cuts and spending cuts. Chafee also supports federally funded standardized testing for schools. When he was in the Senate, Chafee was the only Republican who opposed the Iraq war.

What are his chances? Chafee is “pretty unpopular,” Rockman said. “He decided not to run again for governor of Rhode Island, and [if he had] he probably would have lost — maybe even in the primary.”

Combined with his low name recognition and limited funding, Chafee’s unpopularity in his home state makes him “an outside shot,” Rockman said.

Jim Webb

Who is he? From 2007 to 2013, Webb was a Senator from Virginia, and he was also Secretary of the Navy from 1987 to 1988 and Assistant Secretary of Defense from 1984 to 1987. Outside the government, he has been a novelist, a screenwriter, a historian and a professor at the United States Naval Academy.

What are his chances? Rockman doubts Webb stands a chance at the nomination, thanks to his low name recognition and his scattershot political positions.

“Webb is all over the place,” Rockman said. “He’s a military guy with very dovish views… Very few people will really know who he is.”

REPUBLICANS

Donald Trump

Who is he? Trump is a businessman and media personality, dealing mostly in real estate, entertainment and hospitality. Notably, he was the host and executive producer of reality show “The Apprentice,”  the owner of the Miss Universe and Miss USA beauty pageants, and a member of the World Wrestling Entertainment Hall of Fame’s Celebrity Wing. He has never before run for political office.

Trump has recently characterized many Mexican immigrants as rapists and drug dealers, and John McCain as “not a war hero.” He has advocated for building a giant wall along the United States-Mexico border, making Mexico pay for the wall, and deploying Predator drones to combat illegal immigration. In his 2000 book, “The America We Deserve,” he said that legal immigrants “do not and should not enter easily. It’s a long, costly, draining and often frustrating experience — by design.”

What are his chances? Although he has great name recognition and is polling surprisingly well — in a mid-July Washington Post poll, Trump was leading the GOP field with nearly twice the support of his nearest challenger — Trump’s chances of actually winning the nomination are “minimal, or less than minimal,” according to Rockman.

“He definitely appeals to a certain segment of the Republican Party, and that’s why he’s doing so well in the polls,” Woon said. However, despite his early strong showing, Woon thinks that Trump’s lack of insider support will ruin his bid for the nomination.

Jeb Bush

Who is he? Bush was Governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007. He’s the brother of former President George W. Bush and the son of former President George H.W. Bush.

What are his chances? Bush is “the likely candidate that the party will coalesce around,” Rockman said. “He’s got the money, and many people think he has the chops.”

Bush is “one of the leading contenders,” Woon said, along with Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.

Marco Rubio

Who is he? The son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio has been the junior Senator from Florida since 2011. He was also a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000 to 2009. From 2005 to 2009, he was the Speaker of the Florida House.

What are his chances? According to Rockman, although Rubio appeals heavily to the Republican Party’s base, that popularity might hurt his chances in the general election if he wins the nomination.

“He’s the other one [besides Jeb Bush] that’s considered a serious contender,” Rockman said.

Woon said Rubio is one of three candidates with a realistic chance to win, along with Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. Still, according to Woon, Rubio will face an uphill battle if he hopes to overtake Bush.

Rand Paul

Who is he? A Pittsburgh native and the son of former presidential candidate Ron Paul, Paul has been the junior Senator from Kentucky since 2011. He holds a medical degree from Duke University and had a lengthy career as an ophthalmologist before entering the Senate.

Noted for his vocal opposition to the NSA and other government surveillance programs, Paul is more a libertarian than a social conservative — although he hopes to restrict abortion and said same-sex marriage should be left up to individual states. He advocates auditing the Federal Reserve and returning its regulatory power to Congress. According to his campaign website, Paul’s tax plan would “blow up the tax code and start over,” replacing the entire IRS tax code with a flat 14.5 percent rate.

What are his chances? “If there were a legitimate third party, let’s say a libertarian party, he’d have a shot of changing the calculus of the election, like Ross Perot,” Rockman said. “The base likes his stands on foreign policy and on civil liberties, [but] other parts of the base will have problems with his stance on national security.”

Ultimately, Rockman said, Paul will “make some noise,” but won’t seriously contend for the nomination.

Ted Cruz

Who is he? Since 2013, Cruz has been the junior Senator from Texas. Cruz, a lawyer, was Texas’ Solicitor General from 2003 to 2008. He was an executive at the Federal Trade Commission from 1999 to 2003, a law professor at the University of Texas from 2004 to 2009 and a domestic policy advisor to President George W. Bush. Among his positions, he opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, advocated against the recent Iran nuclear deal, and led opponents of the Affordable Care Act in the Senate in an attempt to defund “Obamacare.”

What are his chances? “He’ll probably get a fair bit of attention, because ideologically he’s more to the right,” Woon said, adding that far-right primary voters might throw their support behind Cruz if Donald Trump falters early on.

“The conventional wisdom on him is that he’d be a disastrous candidate in the general election,” Rockman said, noting also that Cruz has “made enemies with his behavior in the Senate.”

“He’s got the Donald Trump appeal,” Rockman said. “[But] I think he’s not going anywhere.”

Scott Walker

Who is he? Since 2011, Walker has been Governor of Wisconsin. He also served in the Wisconsin General Assembly and as the Executive of Milwaukee County. Notably, he survived a 2012 recall election prompted by union members and workers’ rights activists angry at increased limitations placed on Wisconsin unions.He dropped out of Marquette University in 1990 and does not have a college degree.

What are his chances? “Right now, a lot of big money is going to him…but he’ll be a vulnerable candidate in the end,” Rockman said. “He’s done some controversial things.”

For Rockman, although Walker is “a possibility,” his appeal to the Republican base will hurt his ability to contend in the general election.

Woon called Walker’s chances of winning the nomination “realistic.”

Chris Christie

Who is he? Christie has been Governor of New Jersey since 2010. Before that, he was the U.S. Attorney for New Jersey from 2002 to 2008, a position to which President George W. Bush appointed him, and a lawyer in private practice from 1987 to 2002. Unlike some other Republicans, he acknowledges the reality of climate change and dismisses the notion of strengthening border security, but he also opposes same-sex marriage and has criticized Barack Obama’s handling of Iran and Cuba. He claims to have “fixed” New Jersey’s economic issues — a claim which commentators have disputed — and his self-proclaimed fiscal responsibility has been central to his campaign.

What are his chances? “I think about two years ago, he might have been the Republican establishment’s candidate, but his brand, so to speak, has worn quite thin since that time,” Rockman said, pointing out that Christie is increasingly unpopular in his home state of New Jersey. Christie’s image was tarnished in 2013 when members of his staff colluded to create traffic jams in Fort Lee, N.J., by closing lanes on the George Washington Bridge, allegedly retaliating against Fort Lee’s mayor for failing to endorse Christie for re-election.

Bobby Jindal

Who is he? Since 2008, Jindal has been the Governor of Louisiana. Before that, he was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Louisiana. A specialist in health policy, Jindal has also been secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, a principal advisor to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and the president of the University of Louisiana system.

Jindal thinks Obamacare should be repealed and replaced with his own alternative plan. He’s a social conservative, hopes to expand legal immigration while securing the border, and is open to sending troops to fight ISIS.

What are his chances? For Rockman, Jindal is “even less likely [than Chris Christie]” to win the nomination. His low visibility and his unpopularity in his home state of Louisiana mean that Jindal will start out with two strikes against him, Rockman said.

Rick Perry

Who is he? Perry served as Governor of Texas from 2000 to 2015. Before that, he was Lieutenant Governor of Texas, and became Governor in 2000 when George W. Bush resigned to become President. He served as Texas’ Commissioner of Agriculture and was a member of the Texas House of Representatives. He also campaigned unsuccessfully for President in 2008. As of July 24, a felony indictment against Perry for abuse of power as Governor was pending.

Perry supports tightening up border security — as Governor, he deployed the Texas National Guard to the Mexican border —  and has criticized the Iran nuclear deal, Obama’s outreach to Cuba, and what he considers weakness in America’s recent dealings with China, Russia and ISIS.

What are his chances? Perry is “yesterday’s news,” Rockman said.

Lindsey Graham

Who is he? Graham has been a Senator from South Carolina since 2003, becoming the senior Senator in 2005. Before that, he represented South Carolina in the U.S. House of Representatives and served in the South Carolina House of Representatives. He is a former lawyer and an Air Force veteran. Graham is perhaps best known for his “war hawk” views and his willingness to work with Democrats.

What are his chances? Although Rockman said Graham is a reasonable person who can work well alongside his political opponents, he dismissed his chances in the Republican primary.

“He doesn’t appeal to any one particular segment [of the electorate], except maybe the national security community,” Rockman said. “He’s got the wrong take at the wrong moment. He’s a genuine hawk — John McCain’s twin — but the country isn’t looking to get into another war.”

George Pataki

Who is he? From 1995 to 2006, Pataki served as Governor of New York. Before that, he was a member of the New York Senate, a member of the New York State Assembly, the mayor of Peekskill, New York and a lawyer in private practice. He was Governor of New York during the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

What are his chances? “He represents a part of the Republican Party that’s depleted right now within the Republican base,” Rockman said. Although Pataki has “no chance” to win the nomination, according to Rockman, he could be a viable Vice Presidential candidate if Jeb Bush becomes the nominee.

Rick Santorum

Who is he? Santorum, who holds an MBA from Pitt’s Katz School of Business, was a Senator from Pennsylvania from 1995 to 2007. He had previously represented Pennsylvania in the U.S. House of Representatives. Santorum was the runner-up to Mitt Romney for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, winning 11 states’ primary elections. Best known for his conservative views on social issues — he denies climate change and is loudly opposed to same-sex marriage and abortion — he also wants to reduce immigration, both legal and illegal, and has called for a full-scale attack on ISIS.

What are his chances? In 2012, Rockman said, Santorum managed a respectable second-place finish in the Republican primary because he was the only serious candidate who appealed to fundamentalist evangelical voters. Now that that niche is fuller, Santorum has “even less of a chance than last time,” Rockman said.

For Rockman, if Rick Perry is yesterday’s news, then Rick Santorum is “the day before yesterday’s news.”

Mike Huckabee

Who is he? Huckabee served as Governor of Arkansas from 1996 to 2007. He campaigned for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, winning eight primaries and finishing third behind John McCain and Mitt Romney. He hosted the Fox News talk show “Huckabee” from 2008 to 2015 and the daily talk radio program “The Mike Huckabee Show” from 2012 to 2013. Huckabee is also an author and an ordained Southern Baptist minister, which informs his opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. He supports using military force against ISIS and has criticized Obama’s handling of Iran and Cuba. A central plank in Huckabee’s platform is his fiscal record as Governor of Arkansas — he has said that he cut taxes almost 100 times, balanced the budget every year and left Arkansas with an almost $1 billion surplus.

What are his chances? “He’s got the potential to stir up the evangelical crowd,” Rockman said. “He can do well enough in some southern states to allow him to go on.”

Ben Carson

Who is he? Carson first gained fame as a talented neurosurgeon and as the author of “Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story,” his bestselling memoir. He burst into politics in February 2013 after he denounced President Barack Obama in his National Prayer Breakfast keynote speech, becoming a conservative hero.

Carson proposes ratcheting up sanctions on Iran and putting American troops on the ground to fight ISIS. A social conservative, he opposes same-sex marriage — but acknowledges that it’s now “the law of the land” — and late-term abortions. He hopes to replace the IRS with a flat tax rate, to be paid by all Americans, and to replace Obamacare with “healthcare savings accounts.”

What are his chances? “I think he’s going nowhere,” Rockman said. “His views are very extreme, and there are few African-Americans voting in the Republican primary.”

Carly Fiorina

Who is she? Fiorina is a former businesswoman, best known for her rocky tenure as CEO of computer company Hewlett-Packard from 1999 to 2005. After being forced to resign from HP, she advised John McCain during his 2008 presidential campaign and, in 2010, ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate from California. She currently chairs the nonprofit charity Good360.

Fiorina has taken a harsh line on foreign policy, arguing that America should arm Ukraine against Russia and criticizing what she considers lenience in negotiations with Iran.

What are her chances? “No chance,” Rockman said. “She’s the ousted CEO of a big company, which doesn’t look good, and she lost her Senate bid by a huge margin. If this were baseball, she’d already have two strikes against her.”

John Kasich

Who is he? Kasich, a native of Pittsburgh suburb McKees Rocks, is currently Governor of Ohio and has been since 2011. He had previously represented Ohio in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1983 to 2001, during which time he chaired the House Budget Committee. Kasich has also been a Fox News commentator and an investment banker at Lehman Brothers.

He defied the national GOP to support expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare, a move which could hurt his standing with Republican voters.

What are his chances? Woon said Kasich will face a “tough uphill climb” because, although his record as a competent public servant might endear him to intellectuals and Washington elites, voters don’t know him that well. According to Woon, Kasich might have an outside shot if he can convince primary voters he’s not as moderate as his record suggests.