Three keys to victory against Louisville

Once Pitt started this season with blowouts over Duquesne and Central Michigan at home, optimism filled Oakland. Pitt fans everywhere were ready to experience déjà vu — emphatic wins over the first two opponents, then taking down West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. The start felt just like last season.

But when Pitt’s offense took the field in overtime against West Virginia, the excitement turned to dread. Fans had little hope Pitt’s offense could score the necessary touchdown to force another overtime period — and even a “little” was too much. Pitt couldn’t even get a first down.

The Panthers have returned home from their disappointing trip to Morgantown. The back-and-forth 31-24 overtime loss to West Virginia likely changed the Panthers’ path for the remainder of this season. Aspirations of an invitation to the College Football Playoff have shrunk.

But none of Pitt’s first three opponents are members of the ACC. The chances of an at-large bid to the CFP have indeed decreased, especially if the odds-makers are right in predicting West Virginia to lose many of its remaining games. However, the Panthers can still receive an automatic invite by winning the ACC — a path they haven’t yet set foot on.

That is, until this Saturday, when the Louisville Cardinals fly up to Pittsburgh for the first week of ACC play.

First Key: Stop Louisville’s runs before it’s too late

It’s hard to discuss Louisville for long without discussing its depth at the running back position.

Sophomore running back Isaac Brown is at the head of the ship. In his true first season, Brown rushed for 1,173 yards and 11 touchdowns on 165 carries. This season, through three games, Brown has 248 yards and three touchdowns on only 19 carries — an incredible 13.1 yards per rush. If that were enough carries to meet the minimum threshold for the NCAA leaderboards, Brown’s efficiency would blow the rest of the country out of the water.

And Brown isn’t alone. As a unit, the Cardinals average 5.26 yards per rushing attempt, good for 32nd in the country. Sophomore running back Duke Watson had a productive first collegiate year, even if it didn’t surpass Brown’s. Even though Watson hasn’t seen the field much this season, it’s not too late, as he led the nation in rushing yards his senior year of high school.

While Watson has stayed on the sideline, sophomore running back Keyjuan Brown has averaged five yards per carry and also rushed for three touchdowns. There are still two more Cardinals who average over five yards per carry. If they keep that pace every play, the Panthers don’t stand a chance.

Louisville will run the football — that’s no secret. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they didn’t prove they could stop a run-heavy offense against the Mountaineers. Quite the opposite — they looked prone to the opponent detonating explosive runs. The primary key for Pitt to win their first ACC contest is limiting Louisville’s runs to ideally less than four yards per carry.

Second Key: Get the quarterback on the ground

The Panthers hopefully spent their bye week properly after the loss. Ideally, they spent a lot of time watching Louisville redshirt senior quarterback Miller Moss and his passing ability.

Moss spent the first four seasons of his college career at USC, but didn’t start until last season. Through nine games, Moss completed 64.4% of his passes for 2,555 yards and 18 touchdowns. Most importantly, Moss was only sacked 10 times over the entire season.

Now, with the Cardinals, Moss is not playing behind such a stellar offensive line. Through only three games against Eastern Kentucky, James Madison and Bowling Green, Moss was sacked six times.

While Louisville’s previous opponents are good football teams, they do not possess the same quality of players that Pitt has to get after the quarterback. Through four weeks of the college football season, Pitt leads all 136 FBS teams with 4.0 sacks per game. Making the situation even scarier for the Cardinals, Louisville’s fans have felt shaky about the offensive line through the season thus far.

In the new age of advanced analytics, statistics such as pressures — an almost sack — are given a bulk of the attention. Other than generating a turnover, not much kills an opponent’s drive like a sack. If the Panthers can get Moss on the ground at least as much as their average, they’ll set themselves up for a win by stifling the Cardinals’ momentum on offense.

Third Key: Reactivate senior running back Desmond Reid

While I don’t have access to Louisville’s scouting report of the Panthers, I’d make an educated guess that Reid is at the top of it.

After recording six carries for 30 yards in the first quarter of the Backyard Brawl, Reid was mysteriously sidelined. It wasn’t until the second half that the game’s announcers revealed that Reid would not return for the rest of the game. Without their star running back and arguably the Panthers’ best offensive player, Pitt’s offense was mostly limited to screen passes and deep shots.

Everyone saw the point that a Reid-less offensive system got the Panthers. It didn’t look good. Before the Backyard Brawl, Reid ranked 16th in the country in all-purpose yards per game. That speaks to his talent but also the Panthers’ reliance on his ability.

If Pitt, already projected as an underdog at home, wants to take down the Cardinals, who received the 32nd most votes in the week four AP Top 25 poll, Reid, who is still questionable to play on Saturday, has to reactivate and return to his usual self.