Q ‘ A with Geoff Dutelle
January 3, 2007
One of my least favorite sports adages is that a team will somehow manage to “perform better… One of my least favorite sports adages is that a team will somehow manage to “perform better after its first loss,” as if, somehow, winning a certain number of games in a row comes with this unbelievably heavy burden that holds a team back.
This is what people think about the Indianapolis Colts each year before their inevitable choke or what analysts will say about any team, outside of college football, that hasn’t lost yet.
It is also the case for the Pitt Panthers, who make a habit of getting off to hot starts, usually running through the non-conference portion of their schedule unbeaten.
I just don’t buy it. Losses teach you lessons, but you don’t have to lose to learn. Nobody needs to lose to win.
Such is the case for Pitt. What we can take away from Pitt’s two early losses to Wisconsin and Oklahoma State is not that this team now magically knows what it needs to do to become a Final Four-caliber team, but something more important – Pitt basketball is now trying to become an elite program.
That’s right, I’d rather see our Panthers play these impressive road games against strong opposition and lose than stay home and beat up on Chicago State or Howard. Pitt is playing a real non-conference schedule and that is more important than any number of wins Pitt could get over JV-esque, mid-minor teams.
Losing these games didn’t make Pitt a better team, but it did bring up the inevitable questions about what this team’s chances are for this season.
How does Pitt stand in the Big East?
Pretty darn good. They are in a 14-way tie for second place, considering that only two teams have played.
I know it’s easy to say that it is too early to tell, but it is. The Big East’s elite have proved to be slightly below where everyone had them pinned and there also appear to be a few dark horses creeping into the race.
Pitt has obviously dropped a few games, as has Syracuse and Georgetown. Marquette followed up its strong start with a few losses while young UConn, Notre Dame and West Virginia teams have showed more than most initially thought.
That means, for now, nobody appears to be that much better than anybody else when it comes to the Big East’s contenders. Nor is any team in a better position than any other. Pitt still appears to have the most talent, but rarely does that lead to a Big East title. This team can indeed win the conference, but the consistency will need to develop, as will the road play.
What do the two losses mean for Pitt’s eventual NCAA seeding?
Oh boy, the NCAA Tournament. I’ll try not to get too excited about it, seeing as it is still months away. You shouldn’t either.
But keep in mind that Pitt is still very capable of getting a great seed.
Consider some of the Panthers’ early-season wins. They may not have appeared too impressive at the time, but November wins are like Chia Pets – they start out looking like nothing special, but given time, they might turn into something nice.
Delaware State is only 3-9 but the Hornets are a regular power in the MEAC. They play a brutal non-conference slate and then usually make an NCAA Tournament push with a .500 record. Look for the Hornets to be in the dance this year.
Impressive wins over UMass and Dayton, both sitting at 10-3 in the Atlantic-10, mean the Panthers may have defeated another eventual conference champion. Oakland could win the Mid-Continent Conference just as Robert Morris could win its conference. Throw in possible tournament bids to Florida State (which boasts a win over No. 3 Florida) and a 10-4 Auburn team, and we see more than a half-dozen potential tournament teams Pitt has beaten.
Keep in mind, also, that more games played against anyone in the eventual tournament field strengthens Pitt’s cause for a solid seed. Everyone has tune-up games, but if these teams that Pitt has already beaten ultimately do something in their respective conference, the Panthers will have some subtle big wins on their resume before the committee even considers what they do in the Big East.
Who poses the biggest threat to Pitt in the Big East?
Any team that wants to foul the Panthers. I’m serious; this team has serious issues when it comes to free throws.
Surprisingly, the team that presents the biggest matchup problems for Pitt is a team that isn’t even ranked. Sure they started the year with lofty expectations, but a few non-conference home losses dropped them out of the top 25. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still dangerous, though.
Meet the Georgetown Hoyas, a team with the size and the scrappiness to stick with the Panthers.
Georgetown has the size in Roy Hibbert (7-foot-2) and Jeff Green (6-foot-9) to bang with Pitt down low. Both are juniors and hold 2-0 records against the Panthers this far.
Pitt also doesn’t have a defensive answer for Green, who went for 22 points in last year’s 61-58 win over the Panthers. Georgetown’s size, quickness and annoying defense eventually led to a 70-52 dispatching of second-seeded Ohio State and a close 57-53 loss to eventual national champion Florida in the Sweet Sixteen.
Don’t rule these Hoyas out, even if they have lost early games to Old Dominion, Oregon and Duke. They are still every bit the dangerous team people thought they would be entering this season.