Spring training has just begun, and already, some sports writers around the world are… Spring training has just begun, and already, some sports writers around the world are handing the World Series trophy directly to the New York Yankees. With the acquisition of Alex Rodriguez, one may consider the Yankees heavy favorites, but the Yanks have yet to learn one of the most basic concepts of creating a dynasty. As the old adage states, pitching wins championships.

In its last two World Series matchups, New York has lost to teams with clearly superior pitching. Josh Beckett and the Marlins proved this last year, while Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson ended title hopes for the Yankees in 2001.

The Yankees, this year, have put together a starting rotation consisting of Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras and Jon Lieber.

Lieber — 34 years old and in his 11th season — is the early favorite for the fifth spot in the Yankees’ rotation. This spot has haunted the Yankees over the past few seasons, whether you consider Jeff Weaver in 2003 or the inconsistency of Ted Lilly and Orlando Hernandez before him. Lieber has only pitched two above-average seasons in his career and sat out all of last year to undergo Tommy John surgery. Historically, Major League pitchers coming back from this surgery have disappointing returning seasons. Kerry Wood struggled in 2000, Matt Morris was forced to pitch exclusively out of the bullpen, and Kris Benson still hasn’t fully recovered from the extensive surgery.

Contreras — 32 years old and in his second season — was the preseason favorite for Rookie of the Year in 2003, but failed to even pitch in 100 innings for the Yankees. He started off slow and eventually got hurt, which caused him to spend some rehabilitation time in the minor leagues. While he did look solid in his 71 innings, you never know how a full season will go with a rookie. Whether or not Contreras can produce a solid season is anyone’s guess.

Vazquez — 27 years old and in his seventh season — could serve to be a better acquisition for the Yankees than Alex Rodriguez. Vazquez’s pitch arsenal and stats could easily be considered the best on the rotation. He put up magnificent numbers while playing for the Montreal Expos. With run support, Vazquez should be much better and win more games, but his season will come down to how he handles the pressure of playing for the Yankees and being in the New York spotlight.

Brown — 39 years old and in his 18th season — is coming off his first full season since 2000. He has the ability to dominate, but the question remains as to whether or not he can complete the season injury-free. Even if he reaches this goal, one could also question if the 39-year-old and often injured pitcher can handle another 200-inning season. The strain of a full season on his near-40-year-old, previously impaired arm could limit his effectiveness on the mound.

Mussina — 35 years old and in his 15th season — could easily have the success of the whole team riding on his shoulders. He is the only starter who won’t have question marks over his head come April. Mussina is the only one of the five starters who has pitched at least one full season for the Yankees and fully understands the way they go about everyday practices in New York.

With age, injury and lack of experience in New York all working against them, the Yankees’ pitching staff will need to step up in the 2004 season and exceed expectations. Mussina will need to anchor this staff, and if an injury arises, owner George Steinbrenner will have to make a huge trade to bring in another starter. The Yankees will have no time to waste, given the pitching that Theo Epstein added to his Red Sox club this off-season.

Based on possible problems alone, I say the Yanks will lose the division to the Red Sox this year and could say goodbye to the playoffs as well.