Best Picture: “Chicago”

“The Pianist” has a fighting chance, but I’m going with… Best Picture: “Chicago”

“The Pianist” has a fighting chance, but I’m going with “Chicago.” A critical and commercial success, it is reviving a genre the Academy appreciates, and it is the film with the most nominations.

Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Gangs of New York”

The fact that Michael Caine and Jack Nicholson are old guys hurts Day-Lewis’ chances, but I suspect the Academy will acknowledge Scorsese’s film in some way. The nod will likely go to this “retired” actor’s larger-than-life performance.

Actress: Renee Zellweger, “Chicago”

I predict Sunday will be the night of “Chicago.” It has the most noms and it will have the most wins. Zellweger shines in the lead role. Nicole Kidman is a contender, though – her wearing of a prosthetic in “The Hours” will score her extra points with the Academy.

Supporting Actor: Chris Cooper, “Adaptation”

Cooper has been doing fine work – mostly playing smaller roles – for a while now. He deserved a statuette for his “American Beauty” performance, so I’m figuring the Academy will catch up with him for his manic turn in “Adaptation.”

Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore, “The Hours”

Moore is nominated for both Best Actress and Best Supporting, a rare and impressive feat. My guess is she’ll be honored for her work in “The Hours,” though the momentum I predict “Chicago” will have would make Catherine Zeta-Jones a threat.

Director: Rob Marshall, “Chicago”

Though there have been exceptions, Best Picture and Best Director generally go hand in hand. Newcomer Marshall made “Chicago” work onscreen, a task that seasoned directors have been trying to pull off for years. And he’s from Pittsburgh.

Closing remarks:

Whatever wins, whoever wins, the Oscars are guaranteed to run long and piss off anyone who actually cares about film. It’s like the Super Bowl, but you know your team’s going to lose. Need an idea for a game? In honor of Pittsburgh, drink a beer or shot every time “Chicago” wins. Drink two every time it loses.