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Pitt fans know the disappointment all too well: After a great regular season, the Panthers make an early exit out of the NCAA Tournament, often trumped by a hotter team or a star player.

Whether it’s because of their own deficiencies or strong competition, the Panthers can’t seem to avoid the trend under Jamie Dixon.

This year’s team is different than past years, though, for better or for worse.

For better, Pitt has a dynamic player who can take over a game in Lamar Patterson. For worse, Pitt, very simply, hasn’t been able to beat quality teams. On the year, Dixon’s squad is 2-7 against teams in the Ratings Percentage Index Top 50.

Because of an overall weak field, an opportunistic fan might surmise that Pitt could make a run, spearheaded by Patterson’s star power. Realistically, though, Pitt will have to be extremely lucky to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

To make a run in the tournament, a team needs everything to work well or must have the talent to make up for its mistakes. Pitt, conversely, needs far too many variables to work and lacks the talent to make up ground if a couple of those variables aren’t working. But let’s say Pitt inconceivably starts clicking on all facets and makes a deep run. What needs to go right for the Panthers? 

Well, quite a bit. 

Mainly, they need to make four inconsistencies consistent, plus a bit of luck.

1. Talib Zanna finding his zone

While Patterson is Pitt’s clear No. 1 scorer, fifth-year senior Zanna has usually been Pitt’s No. 2. This year, Zanna has averaged 12.6 points a game, a quality number for a big man.

Despite the solid scoring number, Zanna has generally been inconsistent. In one game, he makes virtually everything around the rim, and then the next he struggles to make easy, high-percentage shots.

Zanna’s job isn’t all that difficult on the offensive end. As long as he stays active, Patterson, James Robinson, Josh Newkirk and Cameron Wright will find him and deliver a good pass.

For Zanna, his problem isn’t staying active, but finishing his shot opportunities when he gets them. His shots are almost always from high-percentage spots, but he doesn’t consistently finish strongly and decisively. That’s often because he has struggled to make quick, smart decisions with the ball. 

When he’s off, he’s passing up open midrange jumpers for poor shots off drives and double and triple pumping when he receives the ball in deep position. If Zanna makes smart decisions with the ball, then he should have no problem being a more-than-viable second option.

2. Keep the enemies close and the score closer

For Pitt to win games against good teams, it needs to force its opponents into defensive battles. With unreliable scorers outside of Patterson, Pitt often struggles to put the ball in the basket. 

If teams are able to play their tempo up and down the court and find quality shots, the Panthers generally can’t win. But if Dixon and his squad can force their opponents into grind-it-out ugly defensive battles, they can keep most games close.

Taking a look at Pitt’s games against good opponents, almost all of them were close, low-scoring games. 

Against Cincinnati, Virginia and Syracuse — all top-15 teams — Pitt was able to keep the score within reach by slowing down its opponent and limiting possessions. The Panthers did lose all of those games, but it all came down to the final minutes. 

When Pitt was unable to slow the game against North Carolina and Duke, it was thoroughly outplayed and lost easily.

Since Dixon has mostly abandoned using zone defense, Pitt needs to be strong in its traditional man-to-man scheme. To do so, the Panthers need to play smart and physical, bumping their opponents when they can and making quick switches. 

If they can do that, they’ll be able to force their opponent to a low-possession game, which most teams aren’t comfortable with.

3. Bring in the backup

A lack of secondary scorers has proved a detriment to Pitt. Before sophomore swingman and capable long-range shooter Durand Johnson lost his season to a torn ACL, Pitt didn’t struggle as much to score. 

After losing Johnson, though, Pitt’s offense has been tough to watch.

Besides Patterson and Zanna, none of Pitt’s players have been dependable scorers. Wright has been Pitt’s third-best scorer at 10.8 points per game, but he’s not a threat past the 3-point line and often misses layups while maneuvering too much with the ball in the air. After Wright, James Robinson has been reluctant to shoot, and the results aren’t good when he does. Freshmen Michael Young, Jamel Artis and Newkirk have ability, but struggle with inexperience. 

Out of the group, Pitt’s best bets for consistent secondary scorers are Wright and Newkirk. Wright usually puts himself in a good position to score, but he just needs to finish those looks better. 

As the season progressed, Newkirk grew more comfortable by demonstrating a consistent jump shot out to the 3-point line and an ability to get to the basket. 

Evidently, if the Panthers’ offense is going to run smoothly, Wright and Newkirk will likely have to step up as consistent secondary scorers.

4. Rebound like the game depends on it

There’s a reason why Dixon harps on rebounding. When a team can limit its opponent to one-shot possessions and then extend possessions with offensive rebounds, that team can make up a talent gap. For most teams, the 3-point shot is the great equalizer. 

But for Pitt, a team that isn’t made up of long-range sharpshooters, rebounding, especially offensive, can level the playing field — if not skewing it in the Panthers’ favor.

On the season, Pitt ranks a seemingly poor No. 104 in rebounds per game, but Pitt’s slow pace (No. 299 in adjusted tempo) lowers that stat even further. In a more useful number, the Panthers rank No. 17 in rebounding margin, out-rebounding their opponents an average of 6.4 rebounds per game.

It’s almost comical how predictable Dixon can be in press conferences, usually blaming rebounding for a win or loss. He’s right, though. 

Generally, when Pitt doesn’t have a large talent advantage, the Panthers win when they rebound well and lose when they don’t.

If Pitt is going to control the boards against opponents, its frontcourt needs to come up big. Namely, Zanna will need to continue his success in grabbing rebounds after he finished second-best in the ACC with 8.4 rebounds per game. When he’s at his best, he’s fiercely grabbing defensive rebounds and is extremely active on the offensive end, feasting on tip-ins and put backs.

Looking at two of Pitt’s better conference performances, the Panthers out-rebounded Wake Forest by 10 in the first game Jan. 11 and eight in last Thursday’s game, then won by 15 and 29 points, respectively. On the other side, in two games when Pitt was thoroughly outplayed and lost, it split on the boards against North Carolina, and Duke out-rebounded the Panthers by five.

Of course, there are exceptions to the rule. 

In both of Pitt’s heart-breaking losses to Syracuse, the Panthers were the victors on the boards, out-rebounding the Orange by 11 in both games. These games are a testament to the positive effects of rebounding, though, as Pitt was able to nearly win both despite inferior talent.

That just goes to show that basketball is a game of breaks. But the Panthers have the groundwork laid out to minimize the impact of the unpredictable.