Pivoting from their drubbing of Syracuse, the 7-0 No. 18 Pitt Panthers head west to Dallas to face a new ACC member, the No. 20 SMU Mustangs. This matchup is critical for both teams and is set as a tight one, with the line in favor of SMU by 7.5 points. Each squad looks to keep up in the ACC Race as they vie for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Pitt and SMU share some history, most recently a 28-6 SMU victory in the 2012 BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama. The Mustangs lead the all-time series 3-2-1.
This is arguably the hardest opponent each team has faced yet, which adds an interesting dimension to an already hyped matchup. Both teams have won games every which way this season, from blowouts to comebacks alike — to put it simply, they’ve both shown they can survive whatever test is given to them.
Peaking at the right time
Pitt’s defensive improvement is nothing short of remarkable. After a shaky first few weeks, the unit has turned it around, and at a much-needed time as the offense stagnates.
While still not statistically outstanding overall, the defensive unit has shown over the past two weeks that it is capable of carrying the team to wins. The most notable aspect of the Panthers’ defense is their front seven and ability to disrupt the backfield. The Pitt D currently averages 3.5 sacks per game and 97.7 rushing yards allowed per game, both top 10 in the country respectively.
SMU has done a pretty good job of keeping sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings upright. The Mustangs are very capable of running the ball, averaging 177 rushing yards per game. Jennings himself adds an extra dimension to the running game, with 321 rushing yards and three touchdowns this season.
Pitt’s advantage is that Jennings and the Mustangs are quite turnover-prone. Last week against Duke, Jennings threw three interceptions, and the team committed six turnovers against the Blue Devils. If the Panthers can capitalize on the Mustangs’ mistakes, then the playing field gets level real quick.
Stuck in a rut
Once the main headline of the team, the offense has taken a backslide in recent weeks. A combination of injuries on the offensive line and defenses selling out to stop quarterback Eli Holstein have caused the Panther offense to decline in production.
Obviously, with the defense scoring three touchdowns on their own, the offense didn’t need to carry the load last week. Holstein did pitch in two impressive touchdown passes to compensate, hopefully signaling a return to regular form for the young quarterback.
SMU’s pass defense is far from great, surrendering 255 yards per game and an average QB rating of 124.3 on the season. This game provides Eli Holstein and the passing game a good opportunity to get back on track.
The real challenge comes in SMU’s rush defense. The Mustangs come into the game allowing a mere 96.1 yards per game — eighth-best in the nation. Their path to success on defense comes in limiting Pitt junior running back Desmond Reid and placing the pressure on Holstein to move the ball forward. And with his recent struggles, that seems like a good bet for SMU.
Verdict
This is possibly the most intriguing game of the season for the Panthers. Both teams come in with similar statistics and records but with vastly different styles of play that got them where they are.
If Pitt’s offense can get back into a rhythm, then a win is definitely in the cards, but a mostly solid Mustang defense should provide trouble, especially if they can limit Reid and the running game.
Defensively, Pitt faces a much more balanced attack, and SMU has plenty of capable options to stretch out the Panthers’ defense and limit the splash plays that they have been reliant on.
When combined with a tough road trip and atmosphere, SMU has the advantage, albeit it’s a lot closer than some pundits and bettors believe.
Final Score:
SMU 34 – Pitt 30