Following a crushing loss against No. 13 SMU, Pitt football was offered a boon this past Tuesday when the initial College Football Playoff rankings put it at No. 18. The Panthers are currently on the outside looking in, and the road to the playoffs is arduous. But it all starts Saturday when the Panthers welcome Virginia.
Pitt has plenty of issues that need addressing but will have a good chance to work on those issues against a Cavaliers team that has lost three straight games. While Virginia is vulnerable, the Wahoos are also fighting to keep their season alive as they have a difficult schedule to end their season. That kind of hunger can level the playing field which the Panthers can ill-afford at this juncture of the season.
Building back
For the past three games, Pitt’s offense has underperformed and cost them greatly against SMU. In the last three games, redshirt first-year quarterback Eli Holstein has struggled, putting up 489 yards and two touchdowns to three interceptions. Holstein is the key to the offense’s production which has reflected his decline in recent weeks.
The offensive line deserves some scrutiny too. Redshirt senior Branson Taylor suffered a season-ending injury against Cal, and his absence at the left tackle position is a big factor for the inconsistencies on the line.
Fortunately for Pitt, Virginia’s weak defense should provide a good opportunity to get into a rhythm. The ‘Hoos are 106th in the country in yards allowed, giving up 408 yards a game. The pass defense is equally abysmal, posting a ninth-worst 275.1 yards per game. The Cavaliers also struggle with getting to the quarterback with only 12 sacks on the season. This kind of environment could help Holstein get his confidence and rhythm back and move the ball effectively.
Pitt’s run game also needs to improve — in its last three games, the Panthers have averaged only 107 rushing yards per contest, which has added some pressure to Holstein and the passing game. The Cavaliers boast a decent run defense, surrendering 131 yards a contest, meaning there is some opportunity whenever Pitt needs it.
Defense is the Wahoos’ Achilles’ Heel this season, leaving prime territory for Holstein and company to fix their mistakes from previous weeks.
Take precaution
After pitching in possibly its worst performance of 2024, the Pitt defense is also looking for some redemption this weekend. But in front of them lies an underrated Virginia offense that now has a blueprint on how to neutralize Pitt’s landshark defense.
Last week, SMU employed a no-huddle spread offense that stretched out the defense and largely avoided Pitt’s dangerous linebacking corps which Virginia head coach Tony Elliott certainly highlighted leading up to this contest.
The ‘Hoos are spearheaded by sophomore quarterback Anthony Colandrea. Colandrea has had an up-and-down season, currently sitting at 56th-best in the country with 1,805 passing yards along with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions.
The real danger in Virginia’s arsenal is senior wideout Malachi Fields. He is one of the more underrated receivers in the country, putting together a quiet 654 receiving yards, which stands as the 35th-best in the nation. Field’s big play potential, combined with Pitt’s pension for surrendering chunk plays, could keep the Cavalier offense afloat.
Pitt’s front seven is the X factor for the team this week. The Cavalier offensive line is one of the worst in the country, as they are tied for the 13th-most sacks allowed this season with 25 and give up an average of three sacks a game. On the flip side, the Panthers have recorded a 17th-best 24 sacks this season, so expect to see Colandrea running for his life most of the game.
The run game should also play a factor. A normally great Pitt run defense was torched for 161 yards against SMU, and head coach Pat Narduzzi is hoping that isn’t indicative of things to come.
Apart from last week, the run defense is one of the nation’s best, allowing only 102 yards per game and an even lower 2.75 yards per carry.
For Virginia, its running game is largely ineffectual, averaging 140 yards per game and only 3.96 yards a pop. While that is hampered by sack yardage according to NCAA rules, it still doesn’t reflect well for the Wahoos. The Cavaliers’ passing game will most likely dictate how effectively they can run the ball.
Verdict
Pitt’s offense should thrive due to a porous Virginia defense, and despite the group’s recent struggles, I have faith that Holstein and friends can turn it around this week and produce an outing reminiscent of the early weeks of the season.
While Virginia’s Fields is a huge threat, he likely can’t produce enough to make up for his team’s deficiencies on the opposite side of the ball, especially when Pitt will likely make life difficult for Colandrea.
Pitt’s explosive capabilities are far more reliable than Virginia’s, and the defense should thrive against a weak Cavalier offensive line, creating a big gap between the two teams.
Final Score: Pitt 45-Virginia 21