Sen. Barack Obama’s significant lead in the polls over Sen. John McCain might not be all that… Sen. Barack Obama’s significant lead in the polls over Sen. John McCain might not be all that significant. While the Democratic candidate has an 11-point lead over McCain, according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday, there are numerous factors suggesting that Obama supporters shouldn’t rest too easy. For one, this year’s presidential election might be subject to the Wilder Effect. In 1989, the election for Virginia governor was between Douglas Wilder, a black candidate, and Marshall Coleman, a white candidate. Polls conducted throughout the race showed Wilder ahead of Coleman by double-digit margins until the exit poll was conducted on the day of the election.’ On Election Day, when the outcome was determined, Wilder won by less than one percentage point.’ Pre-election polls proved to be inaccurate in this case. When asked about the Wilder Effect, Nielsen said, ‘We [at Gallup] do not believe this is the case.’ He based his idea on the fact that the polls seemed to prove true during the primary election. Nielsen reported that the polls taken since January show that 97 percent of people say they would vote a qualified black individual into office. Daniel J. Hopkins, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard’s government department, believes that the Wilder Effect no longer holds true. His research over the last 12 years suggests that since then polling surrounding black candidates has been accurate. Hopkins explains in his analysis that racism might still exist, but it does not skew the polling process anymore. Reuben Kline, a PhD candidate of the University of California’s political science department, believes that the Wilder Effect still exists today. He describes how those being polled might give misleading answers. ‘They don’t want to look racist as the pollster, but they end up not voting for the black candidate or just not voting at all,’ said Kline. Pitt professor Charles Jones said that he was concerned with whether those with only cell phones, specifically the younger voters, were being under-sampled. Senior director of media strategies at Gallup Eric Nielsen said that cell phone-only voters have been contacted since January, because 14 percent of Americans have no landlines. David Witoslawski, student at Pitt, said he thinks that the polls will continue to show Obama ahead until Election Day. He also believes that the polls are factual. Some contribute Obama’s success to the current state of the economy and government. David N. DeJong, chair of the department of economics at Pitt, said that the current state of the economy plays a significant factor in Obama’s high polling numbers. ‘The economic problems we currently face aren’t going away anytime soon,’ said DeJong. ‘Bad economic news is bad news for McCain.’ A poll is a survey of the general public’s beliefs, but if enough of the public lies, the statistics thrown out can be off by more than the expected two percent. Neilsen said that 1,000 individuals are polled each night and the results given to the public represent a three-day average of Americans polled. This means that results reflecting Tuesday’s debate will not be released until tomorrow. He acknowledged that Gallup’s margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.