I thought I had it all figured out. I made the picks I was supposed to make. I rode the… I thought I had it all figured out. I made the picks I was supposed to make. I rode the hottest teams. I made a Final Four pick that, if it played out, was going to land me all that glorious cash. I was about to be at Blush for student night, making it rain.

And then, that oh-so-glorious pick looked me square in the eye and socked me in the face.

It’s an easy explanation: I’m an idiot. I picked Gonzaga to knock off North Carolina. Now, give me a minute to justify myself. The Zags came into the tourney as one of the hottest teams in the United States, riding a then-nine-game winning streak. The Tar Heels seemed to be reeling from a Ty Lawson foot injury, and no one was sure how’d he would show up in the Tournament. So on Wednesday night, March 18, I made that fatal change to my precious NCAA Tournament bracket. I dropped Carolina from my Final Four, had the Zags taking its place.

Talk about bad karma. Not only did UNC romp Gonzaga by more than I know how to count, but the rest of my picks came crashing down — from Memphis to Louisville to … well, you know who else lost this weekend.

And now, with my ultra-trendy pick two games removed, the Tournament all of a sudden has a familiar ring to it: Roy Williams, Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun. All three coaches have won National Championships in the last decade. All three expect to be one of the last teams standing every year.

Beyond coaching, though, college hoops are a point guard’s game. Often we encounter the highly touted big man, the athletic wing with all the NBA upside in the world. The Hasheem Thabeet. The DeJuan Blair.

But time after time, it’s the college point guards who have made them look so appealing. Blake Griffin can be our exception here.

There’s simply no chance the Tar Heels would’ve arrived in the Detroit section of your bracket without Lawson. Had he been sidelined, maybe my Zags pick would have come through. But he got better. And now, the Tournament is reduced beyond all the bracketology, the matchup picks and the injury picks.

Now, it is all about the eyeball test.

Who looks good? Who has got the swagger? Who refuses to lose?

Michigan State has probably peaked. Beating Louisville was about as far as it can go. Connecticut is hitting on all cylinders and expects to play in the title game. Calhoun’s squad simply has more ballers. So Izzo’s Spartans are out.

Villanova is a first-timer, the coach and its team. The Wildcats came out victorious in the best game of the Tournament so far in knocking off Pitt this past Saturday. That is going to give them a lot of confidence and Scotty Reynolds provides the best Lawson-antidote we know of. But will Tyler Hansborough and co. tolerate another Final Four burnout, like last year against Kansas?’ Lawson overcomes Reynolds and Carolina marches on.

So that leaves Connecticut and North Carolina. Both have played well all year. Both have been No. 1 in the polls multiple times. Both have coaches who have been there before.

So let’s eyeball-test it. The Huskies finally found a third scorer in the absence of Jerome Dyson. It’s Stanley Robinson, who has been playing up every since the Big East tournament. A.J. Price is going as well as Lawson right now, scoring in bunches, and big men Jeff Adrien and Thabeet have been serviceable, but not great. They can be better.

The Heels have the aforementioned Lawson, who is the Tournament MVP as of now. They have the supreme will of Hansborough, who is essentially living for a National Championship, because he’ll be just another Christian Laettner in the NBA — marginal at best. The Heels also have the best starting five in the country. When Wayne Ellington is the third guy you mention on your team, watch out.He’s got unlimited range and NBA-like isolation ability. They have frontcourt size in Deon Thompson and more shooting from Danny Green. All their studs came back to school for one reason, to finish what seemed to end so abruptly last year.

…I guess I should’ve picked the Heels, huh?

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