The date is Dec. 2, 2024, and Pitt men’s basketball is in a position to earn its highest seed in the NCAA Tournament since it was a No. 1 seed in 2011.
On3 is projecting Pitt to hold a No. 5 seed in March Madness, and the metrics — something Pitt fans despised at the end of the prior season — absolutely love the Panthers. The NCAA’s NET rankings regarded Pitt as the fifth-best team in the country and the KenPom rankings saw the Panthers as the 13th-best team.
The Panthers were trending upwards. This was the season that Pitt would Leave No Doubt and comfortably make it back to the NCAA Tournament after doubt was left in the 2023-2024 season, making Pitt just miss out on the NCAA Tournament.
When the NET rankings came out on Dec. 2, Pitt held a 7-1 record with its only loss against Wisconsin in a game that had a delayed start due to a shot clock malfunction and was played in a hotel ballroom. Pitt’s only loss happened in the weirdest possible way.
To put a cherry on top, the ACC was clearly in a down season and Pitt’s path to March Madness looked quite simple. All Pitt had to do was Leave No Doubt.
But it did leave doubt.
Pitt men’s basketball will undoubtedly miss an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament for the eighth time in nine years.
Pitt is now officially not on any bracketologist’s radar, and the metrics agree that it is not a top-50 team in the country. Since Dec. 2, Pitt is 9-10 overall and has a record of 1-9 against Quad One and Quad Two opponents. Its only win was a Quad Two home win over North Carolina.
So what went so wrong for the Panthers?
Pitt went on the road against Mississippi State on Dec. 4, and the Bulldogs gave opponents the blueprint on how to beat this iteration of Pitt men’s basketball — have more hustle and physicality than Pitt.
The Bulldogs outrebounded Pitt by 22 on that Wednesday night basketball game and beat Pitt by 33. The Quad One ACC teams followed the same formula — Duke outrebounded Pitt by 15 and won by 29.
Louisville only beat Pitt by four, but outrebounded Pitt by 13 and earned 15 more second-chance points than the Panthers. Florida State, a Quad Two team, outrebounded Pitt by six and forced 17 turnovers from the Panthers.
When Pitt finally seemed to have it figured out against Clemson, losing the rebounding battle by only two and forcing four more turnovers than the Tigers, the Panthers still lost in overtime. But it was a game in which Pitt proved it could stay with some of the best in the ACC when it was playing, showing hustle and physicality.
The Panthers brought that hustle and physicality to their Quad Two win against North Carolina. Pitt still got outrebounded by 10, but forced eight more turnovers and earned seven more blocks, including five from redshirt senior forward Zack Austin.
That was Pitt’s last win against a Quad One or Two opponent. It would go on to lose four straight games, including a 16-point loss to Quad Three opponent Virginia who outrebounded Pitt by 12.
Pitt’s loss to Virginia felt like the final nail in the coffin. But after Pitt recently beat Miami and Syracuse, some bracketologists still gave Pitt a chance to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament before its game against Notre Dame.
That glimmer of hope is all gone now. If the final nail in the coffin that Virginia gave Pitt wasn’t enough, Notre Dame put Pitt’s at-large hopes 6 feet under, buried in the dirt.
Pitt will have one tournament appearance in nine years — that is not good enough for how good this basketball program was 10 years ago.